Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Polybius

(18,272 posts)
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:10 PM Sep 2024

How close do you think the 2024 race will be?

Simple question with a poll. How close do you think the election will be?


83 votes, 3 passes | Time left: Unlimited
About as close a 2020 was, with Harris winning
25 (30%)
Closer than 2020, with Harris barely winning
6 (7%)
Closer than 2020, with Trump barely winning
2 (2%)
Harris winning by a sizable margin (Clinton/Obama style)
45 (54%)
Trump winning by a sizable margin (Clinton/Obama style)
0 (0%)
Harris winning by a landslide (LBJ/Reagan style)
4 (5%)
Trump winning by a landslide (LBJ/Reagan style)
1 (1%)
A 269-269 Electoral tie
0 (0%)
Show usernames
Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
How close do you think the 2024 race will be? (Original Post) Polybius Sep 2024 OP
Harris by 7.5 nationally so close to Obama Tribetime Sep 2024 #1
"wishcasting" WarGamer Sep 2024 #2
I'm going to bookmark Tribetime Sep 2024 #3
You chose the win for tfg - you can change it! NewHendoLib Sep 2024 #5
Kamala gets 294 electoral votes!! geojazz Sep 2024 #4
pretty close. harris win. Groundhawg Sep 2024 #6
After the debate next week BOSSHOG Sep 2024 #7
Popular or Electoral? sarisataka Sep 2024 #8
She will win the popular vote by 10 million votes. gab13by13 Sep 2024 #11
Unlikely, Maybe half that sarisataka Sep 2024 #14
I say 11 but who's counting Tribetime Sep 2024 #22
Electoral Polybius Sep 2024 #12
I think the winner of the Electoral vote sarisataka Sep 2024 #16
I'll be worried as hell if she gets anything under 272 Polybius Sep 2024 #21
I would hope the state's Democratic parties sarisataka Sep 2024 #24
If Harris wins, I think it'll be with 270-290 or so electoral votes. Self Esteem Sep 2024 #9
Isn't it sad that we still have the electoral college? BOSSHOG Sep 2024 #20
You're assuming Trump will win a significant number of states but that those states will then onenote Sep 2024 #23
Yes it will be hard work BOSSHOG Sep 2024 #33
Maybe the EC will one day shift Polybius Sep 2024 #34
How can all these republicans turning on Trump not make a big difference? Cheney may just be worried his daughter brewens Sep 2024 #10
Because Cheney has been hated by Republicans for at least a dozen years now Polybius Sep 2024 #13
because those R's have been unpopular for years. WarGamer Sep 2024 #17
Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2024 #15
enjoy your very brief stay WarGamer Sep 2024 #18
Back so soon? sarisataka Sep 2024 #19
Electoral college will be as close as 2020, but Harris will get a bigger share of popular vote. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2024 #25
Post removed Post removed Sep 2024 #26
Who are you talking about? GP6971 Sep 2024 #27
Welcome to DU sarisataka Sep 2024 #29
They must be GP6971 Sep 2024 #31
9 in 90 days? Polybius Sep 2024 #30
There will be slightly more votes for Harris than Biden got... LogDog75 Sep 2024 #28
Too early. Xolodno Sep 2024 #32

BOSSHOG

(40,207 posts)
7. After the debate next week
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:26 PM
Sep 2024

The rout will be on. For VP and the Coach of course. The only thing trump has going for him is election disrupters and the electoral college. That is the gop in all its glory.

sarisataka

(21,264 posts)
8. Popular or Electoral?
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:35 PM
Sep 2024

Pretty much without doubt she gets the popular by at least a slim margin.

Electoral will be close, but opportunities have opened.

sarisataka

(21,264 posts)
16. I think the winner of the Electoral vote
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:50 PM
Sep 2024

Will get 280 or less. As long as Harris has the majority, I am not too concerned with the specific number.

Polybius

(18,272 posts)
21. I'll be worried as hell if she gets anything under 272
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:54 PM
Sep 2024

Imagine if she wins by 5 million votes, and wins the EV with 271 for her, and 267 for Trump. Then two Electors switch and it goes to the House. As each state gets one vote, they elect Trump anyway. It would tear the country apart.

sarisataka

(21,264 posts)
24. I would hope the state's Democratic parties
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:57 PM
Sep 2024

Will select reliable electors who will not throw away victory.

Votes by faithless electors have appeared only when the victory is assured.

Self Esteem

(1,759 posts)
9. If Harris wins, I think it'll be with 270-290 or so electoral votes.
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:43 PM
Sep 2024

I don't see anything shaking the race anymore now that the conventions are over. I guess the debate could theoretically alter things so I'll make a firmer prediction after Tuesday. But for the time being, I'm guessing Harris wins the popular vote by 2-3 points and barely a majority in the electoral college.

So:

Harris: 49.7%
Trump: 47.5%
Other: 2.8

And 284 electoral votes.

BOSSHOG

(40,207 posts)
20. Isn't it sad that we still have the electoral college?
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:52 PM
Sep 2024

VP Harris wins. call to action. Let’s remove the cancerous EC.

onenote

(44,785 posts)
23. You're assuming Trump will win a significant number of states but that those states will then
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:56 PM
Sep 2024

vote for a constitutional amendment to get rid of the EC?

BOSSHOG

(40,207 posts)
33. Yes it will be hard work
Mon Sep 9, 2024, 07:21 AM
Sep 2024

Like winning WWII. But a worthwhile effort. Or we could just throw up our hands and cede our freedoms to the likes of whomever is currently in the gop.

I also assume that the Saints will have a tough game next week at Dallas. Should I advise them to stay home?

As Henry Ford said, whether you think you can or you can’t you’re right.

 

brewens

(15,359 posts)
10. How can all these republicans turning on Trump not make a big difference? Cheney may just be worried his daughter
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:43 PM
Sep 2024

might end up at Guantanamo but not the rest. Dick endorsing Harris just gets him a little higher level of Hell as far as I'm concerned.

Polybius

(18,272 posts)
13. Because Cheney has been hated by Republicans for at least a dozen years now
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 09:46 PM
Sep 2024

Every one I know told me "good for him."

Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fiendish Thingy

(18,765 posts)
25. Electoral college will be as close as 2020, but Harris will get a bigger share of popular vote. Nt
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:03 PM
Sep 2024

Response to Polybius (Original post)

LogDog75

(152 posts)
28. There will be slightly more votes for Harris than Biden got...
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:11 PM
Sep 2024

But it's the Electoral College vote that counts and I think Harris will get just over 300 EC votes. I think Georgia and North Carolina will be major factors in who wins. I can see TFG winning Georgia in a close race and Harris easily taking North Carolina. Both states have 16 EC votes it's a wash from the 2020 election.

Xolodno

(6,748 posts)
32. Too early.
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 11:09 PM
Sep 2024

A lot can still happen. But one thing for sure, there are times I wonder if I've seriously underestimated a significant portion of the population of this country's ignorant. From both my wife and myself as products of our history, exiles and refugees, things at times rhyme a bit too much.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»How close do you think th...