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Polybius

(17,133 posts)
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:10 PM Sep 8

How close do you think the 2024 race will be?

Simple question with a poll. How close do you think the election will be?


101 votes, 3 passes | Time left: Unlimited
About as close a 2020 was, with Harris winning
30 (30%)
Closer than 2020, with Harris barely winning
9 (9%)
Closer than 2020, with Trump barely winning
4 (4%)
Harris winning by a sizable margin (Clinton/Obama style)
52 (51%)
Trump winning by a sizable margin (Clinton/Obama style)
1 (1%)
Harris winning by a landslide (LBJ/Reagan style)
4 (4%)
Trump winning by a landslide (LBJ/Reagan style)
1 (1%)
A 269-269 Electoral tie
0 (0%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
How close do you think the 2024 race will be? (Original Post) Polybius Sep 8 OP
Harris by 7.5 nationally so close to Obama Tribetime Sep 8 #1
"wishcasting" WarGamer Sep 8 #2
I'm going to bookmark Tribetime Sep 8 #3
You chose the win for tfg - you can change it! NewHendoLib Sep 8 #5
Kamala gets 294 electoral votes!! geojazz Sep 8 #4
pretty close. harris win. Groundhawg Sep 8 #6
After the debate next week BOSSHOG Sep 8 #7
Popular or Electoral? sarisataka Sep 8 #8
She will win the popular vote by 10 million votes. gab13by13 Sep 8 #11
Unlikely, Maybe half that sarisataka Sep 8 #14
I say 11 but who's counting Tribetime Sep 8 #22
Electoral Polybius Sep 8 #12
I think the winner of the Electoral vote sarisataka Sep 8 #16
I'll be worried as hell if she gets anything under 272 Polybius Sep 8 #21
I would hope the state's Democratic parties sarisataka Sep 8 #24
If Harris wins, I think it'll be with 270-290 or so electoral votes. Self Esteem Sep 8 #9
Isn't it sad that we still have the electoral college? BOSSHOG Sep 8 #20
You're assuming Trump will win a significant number of states but that those states will then onenote Sep 8 #23
Yes it will be hard work BOSSHOG Sep 9 #33
Maybe the EC will one day shift Polybius Sep 9 #34
How can all these republicans turning on Trump not make a big difference? Cheney may just be worried his daughter brewens Sep 8 #10
Because Cheney has been hated by Republicans for at least a dozen years now Polybius Sep 8 #13
because those R's have been unpopular for years. WarGamer Sep 8 #17
Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 8 #15
enjoy your very brief stay WarGamer Sep 8 #18
Back so soon? sarisataka Sep 8 #19
Electoral college will be as close as 2020, but Harris will get a bigger share of popular vote. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 8 #25
Post removed Post removed Sep 8 #26
Who are you talking about? GP6971 Sep 8 #27
Welcome to DU sarisataka Sep 8 #29
They must be GP6971 Sep 8 #31
9 in 90 days? Polybius Sep 8 #30
There will be slightly more votes for Harris than Biden got... LogDog75 Sep 8 #28
Too early. Xolodno Sep 9 #32

BOSSHOG

(39,255 posts)
7. After the debate next week
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:26 PM
Sep 8

The rout will be on. For VP and the Coach of course. The only thing trump has going for him is election disrupters and the electoral college. That is the gop in all its glory.

sarisataka

(20,658 posts)
8. Popular or Electoral?
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:35 PM
Sep 8

Pretty much without doubt she gets the popular by at least a slim margin.

Electoral will be close, but opportunities have opened.

sarisataka

(20,658 posts)
16. I think the winner of the Electoral vote
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:50 PM
Sep 8

Will get 280 or less. As long as Harris has the majority, I am not too concerned with the specific number.

Polybius

(17,133 posts)
21. I'll be worried as hell if she gets anything under 272
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:54 PM
Sep 8

Imagine if she wins by 5 million votes, and wins the EV with 271 for her, and 267 for Trump. Then two Electors switch and it goes to the House. As each state gets one vote, they elect Trump anyway. It would tear the country apart.

sarisataka

(20,658 posts)
24. I would hope the state's Democratic parties
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:57 PM
Sep 8

Will select reliable electors who will not throw away victory.

Votes by faithless electors have appeared only when the victory is assured.

Self Esteem

(1,240 posts)
9. If Harris wins, I think it'll be with 270-290 or so electoral votes.
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:43 PM
Sep 8

I don't see anything shaking the race anymore now that the conventions are over. I guess the debate could theoretically alter things so I'll make a firmer prediction after Tuesday. But for the time being, I'm guessing Harris wins the popular vote by 2-3 points and barely a majority in the electoral college.

So:

Harris: 49.7%
Trump: 47.5%
Other: 2.8

And 284 electoral votes.

BOSSHOG

(39,255 posts)
20. Isn't it sad that we still have the electoral college?
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:52 PM
Sep 8

VP Harris wins. call to action. Let’s remove the cancerous EC.

onenote

(44,089 posts)
23. You're assuming Trump will win a significant number of states but that those states will then
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:56 PM
Sep 8

vote for a constitutional amendment to get rid of the EC?

BOSSHOG

(39,255 posts)
33. Yes it will be hard work
Mon Sep 9, 2024, 08:21 AM
Sep 9

Like winning WWII. But a worthwhile effort. Or we could just throw up our hands and cede our freedoms to the likes of whomever is currently in the gop.

I also assume that the Saints will have a tough game next week at Dallas. Should I advise them to stay home?

As Henry Ford said, whether you think you can or you can’t you’re right.

 

brewens

(15,359 posts)
10. How can all these republicans turning on Trump not make a big difference? Cheney may just be worried his daughter
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:43 PM
Sep 8

might end up at Guantanamo but not the rest. Dick endorsing Harris just gets him a little higher level of Hell as far as I'm concerned.

Polybius

(17,133 posts)
13. Because Cheney has been hated by Republicans for at least a dozen years now
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 10:46 PM
Sep 8

Every one I know told me "good for him."

Response to Polybius (Original post)

Response to Polybius (Original post)

LogDog75

(65 posts)
28. There will be slightly more votes for Harris than Biden got...
Sun Sep 8, 2024, 11:11 PM
Sep 8

But it's the Electoral College vote that counts and I think Harris will get just over 300 EC votes. I think Georgia and North Carolina will be major factors in who wins. I can see TFG winning Georgia in a close race and Harris easily taking North Carolina. Both states have 16 EC votes it's a wash from the 2020 election.

Xolodno

(6,644 posts)
32. Too early.
Mon Sep 9, 2024, 12:09 AM
Sep 9

A lot can still happen. But one thing for sure, there are times I wonder if I've seriously underestimated a significant portion of the population of this country's ignorant. From both my wife and myself as products of our history, exiles and refugees, things at times rhyme a bit too much.

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