How close do you think the 2024 race will be?

[Polybius]

Simple question with a poll. How close do you think the election will be?

101 votes, 3 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	About as close a 2020 was, with Harris winning
	30 (30%)
	Closer than 2020, with Harris barely winning
	9 (9%)
	Closer than 2020, with Trump barely winning
	4 (4%)
	Harris winning by a sizable margin (Clinton/Obama style)
	52 (51%)
	Trump winning by a sizable margin (Clinton/Obama style)
	1 (1%)
	Harris winning by a landslide (LBJ/Reagan style)
	4 (4%)
	Trump winning by a landslide (LBJ/Reagan style)
	1 (1%)
	A 269-269 Electoral tie
	0 (0%)
	3 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Tribetime]

1. Harris by 7.5 nationally so close to Obama

[WarGamer]

2. "wishcasting"

[Tribetime]

3. I'm going to bookmark

[NewHendoLib]

5. You chose the win for tfg - you can change it!

[geojazz]

4. Kamala gets 294 electoral votes!!

[Groundhawg]

6. pretty close. harris win.

[BOSSHOG]

7. After the debate next week

The rout will be on. For VP and the Coach of course. The only thing trump has going for him is election disrupters and the electoral college. That is the gop in all its glory.

[sarisataka]

8. Popular or Electoral?

Pretty much without doubt she gets the popular by at least a slim margin.

Electoral will be close, but opportunities have opened.

[gab13by13]

11. She will win the popular vote by 10 million votes.

[sarisataka]

14. Unlikely, Maybe half that

But as we have seen, it does not guarantee a win

[Tribetime]

22. I say 11 but who's counting

[Polybius]

12. Electoral

I should have been more clear.

[sarisataka]

16. I think the winner of the Electoral vote

Will get 280 or less. As long as Harris has the majority, I am not too concerned with the specific number.

[Polybius]

21. I'll be worried as hell if she gets anything under 272

Imagine if she wins by 5 million votes, and wins the EV with 271 for her, and 267 for Trump. Then two Electors switch and it goes to the House. As each state gets one vote, they elect Trump anyway. It would tear the country apart.

[sarisataka]

24. I would hope the state's Democratic parties

Will select reliable electors who will not throw away victory.

Votes by faithless electors have appeared only when the victory is assured.

[Self Esteem]

9. If Harris wins, I think it'll be with 270-290 or so electoral votes.

I don't see anything shaking the race anymore now that the conventions are over. I guess the debate could theoretically alter things so I'll make a firmer prediction after Tuesday. But for the time being, I'm guessing Harris wins the popular vote by 2-3 points and barely a majority in the electoral college.

So:

Harris: 49.7%
Trump: 47.5%
Other: 2.8

And 284 electoral votes.

[BOSSHOG]

20. Isn't it sad that we still have the electoral college?

VP Harris wins. call to action. Let’s remove the cancerous EC.

[onenote]

23. You're assuming Trump will win a significant number of states but that those states will then

vote for a constitutional amendment to get rid of the EC?

[BOSSHOG]

33. Yes it will be hard work

Like winning WWII. But a worthwhile effort. Or we could just throw up our hands and cede our freedoms to the likes of whomever is currently in the gop.

I also assume that the Saints will have a tough game next week at Dallas. Should I advise them to stay home?

As Henry Ford said, whether you think you can or you can’t you’re right.

[Polybius]

34. Maybe the EC will one day shift

It almost happened in 2004.

[brewens]

10. How can all these republicans turning on Trump not make a big difference? Cheney may just be worried his daughter

might end up at Guantanamo but not the rest. Dick endorsing Harris just gets him a little higher level of Hell as far as I'm concerned.

[Polybius]

13. Because Cheney has been hated by Republicans for at least a dozen years now

Every one I know told me "good for him."

[WarGamer]

17. because those R's have been unpopular for years.

[WarGamer]

18. enjoy your very brief stay

[sarisataka]

19. Back so soon?

I think you will be shown the door just as quickly.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Electoral college will be as close as 2020, but Harris will get a bigger share of popular vote. Nt

[GP6971]

27. Who are you talking about?

[sarisataka]

29. Welcome to DU

You seem well versed for being here 10 minutes.

[GP6971]

31. They must be

a quick learner.

[Polybius]

30. 9 in 90 days?

I never knew that was even possible.

[LogDog75]

28. There will be slightly more votes for Harris than Biden got...

But it's the Electoral College vote that counts and I think Harris will get just over 300 EC votes. I think Georgia and North Carolina will be major factors in who wins. I can see TFG winning Georgia in a close race and Harris easily taking North Carolina. Both states have 16 EC votes it's a wash from the 2020 election.

[Xolodno]

32. Too early.

A lot can still happen. But one thing for sure, there are times I wonder if I've seriously underestimated a significant portion of the population of this country's ignorant. From both my wife and myself as products of our history, exiles and refugees, things at times rhyme a bit too much.