Whoever becomes President may have to deal with the loss of up to 45 million jobs in their term from AI

[Quixote1818]

I guess if Trump wins, on the bright side, he would get blamed for this. Harris would have the same problem and might only get one term.


Snip:

Furthermore, the imminent need for retraining looms large on the horizon. Over 120 million workers are poised to undergo retraining in the next three years as AI reshapes industry demands.

The projection that approximately 45 million American jobs might be overtaken by AI by 2030 adds an extra layer of complexity to this narrative.

https://seo.ai/blog/ai-replacing-jobs-statistics#:~:text=Over%20120%20million%20workers%20are,of%20complexity%20to%20this%20narrative.


Editing to add this:

Goldman Sach's predicts the loss of 300 million replaced jobs by 2030 worldwide: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/goldman-sachs-predicts-300-million-jobs-could-replaced-baek--tozdc/

[OnDoutside]

1. The 3rd paragraph is more relevant, people will be trained

to use AI, rather than replacing them.

[lame54]

13. Like the one cashier...

Who oversees 8 self check-outs

[Karma13612]

2. I'm not questioning you but

Do you happen to have a link where I can see more details?
Seems like a pretty huge hit to the job market. That is scary.

[Quixote1818]

4. It's in the OP but here you go

https://seo.ai/blog/ai-replacing-jobs-statistics#:~:text=Over%20120%20million%20workers%20are,of%20complexity%20to%20this%20narrative.

Here is what Goldman Sachs is predicting: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/goldman-sachs-predicts-300-million-jobs-could-replaced-baek--tozdc/

[Self Esteem]

3. Yeah I'm not buying 48 million people will lose their jobs in the next four years lol

That's like 34% of the current full-time workforce. Absolutely zero chance that happens in the next 4 years. Maybe they meant next 40...

[Quixote1818]

6. I agree is sounds too high. However, Goldman Sachs predicts the loss of up to 300 million worldwide by 2030

But even if it's just 10 million jobs in the US, that's going to be a lot of new people looking for a job.


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/goldman-sachs-predicts-300-million-jobs-could-replaced-baek--tozdc/

[Metaphorical]

5. I'm not sure it will come to that

I report on the tech sector regularly, and what I'm seeing is a growing consensus among both technical and business leaders that they will likely not be adopting *current* AI technologies to any significant degree. The tech is still fairly immature, many of the doomsday scenarios that I've seen predicted about replacing coders and creatives are simply not happening, and a lot of companies are sitting on the sidelines because they are increasingly concerned about liability issues.

Moreover, I'm hearing anecdotally about companies that trimmed their payrolls dramatically both as a drawdown after the pandemic and pre-emptively in anticipation that AI would solve all their needs, who are now struggling because nothing is working anymore and they can't get the workers they need. Yes, AI will have some impact, but 45 million? No.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Not going to happen. Nt

[SWBTATTReg]

8. The loss of 45 million jobs won't happen all at once, it takes time to significantly make inroads into corporate

cultures, as budgets allow, etc. Even today, w/ IT, it has 45% of jobs today, after being around for let's say, since 1975, give or take a few years (45 years) thus far. The year 2030 is rather far-fetched as an estimate, and I would say that more time would be needed to integrate more AI into society, ID areas that AI can help, etc.

And, what job categories would college attendees get into, in order to train for AI-related jobs? Pick up a list of courses and you won't see too many choices out there (at least not yet). Give it time.

% of jobs that are IT-related: 44 percent, In total, there were 70,274,000 professionals working in these occupations in 2023, representing about 44 percent of the total U.S. workforce. THIS IS OVER A SPAN OF 45 YEARS OF TIME...

[Elessar Zappa]

9. Eh, I find that hard to believe.

5 million seems more likely (in the near term).

[GroundhogDemocrat]

10. AI will still require humans to train them

Biden plan on AI - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/24/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-outlines-coordinated-approach-to-harness-power-of-ai-for-u-s-national-security/

Harris vs Other's plan on AI technology:
https://www.ciodive.com/news/election-kamala-harris-donald-trump-AI-policy-regulation/730008/

Biden's Chip Act has also *created* not destroyed jobs: https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2024/08/two-years-later-funding-chips-and-science-act-creating-quality-jobs-growing-local

(More bad news isn't part of VP Harris plan for working Americans)

[Ace Rothstein]

11. If it is even half that bad we'll have way bigger problems than who gets blamed.

The waves this will cause to the economy will be absolutely devastating.

[usonian]

12. There's a discussion on Hacker News

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41941746

That points to a long article on this subject.

Opinions vary! I can't yet navigate all the different viewpoints, but human to human services are always needed, and basic things that robots suck at, like wiring power to all those beast machines, are still for humans to do.

Until we become batteries.

[Dem4life1234]

14. Oh fucks sake, there will be jobs training them

[tinrobot]

15. The article reads like AI-generated clickbait

I suppose it will put clickbait writers out of business.