How confident are you this election day?

[Johnny2X2X]

I think the last week was very good for Harris and bad for Trump, she has the momentum that candidates have right before they outperform the polls. There's a lot of data that shows well for her right now. Early voting was better for her than she needed and the data suggests a lot of Republicans are voting for her, maybe 10%.

I don't think this is a coin flip, I think she's clearly favored but it's not a sure thing.

225 votes, 4 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	0-25%
	16 (7%)
	26-50%
	20 (9%)
	51-75%
	44 (20%)
	76-90%
	72 (32%)
	91-100%
	73 (32%)
	4 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Johonny]

1. If turnout is high, I am confident

If I hear turnout is low, I fear the worse.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Early reports are turnout is sky high

Record breaking after record breaking early voting.

[Wednesdays]

12. Indeed, I have yet to hear of low or even moderate turnout ANYWHERE.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Early voting is a sign

Early and mail in totals aren't final yet and won;t be for days, but we likely eclipsed 2020's total and 2020 was in the middle of a 100 year pandemic.

[FirstLight]

3. The two last rallies said it all...

His was dismal and ICK..

Hers was across cities, times zones, multiple stars, tons of PEOPLE engaged and cheering...the JOY! I feel like it was 2008 again, and I am ready for some CHANGE!!!

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Does have the feel like she has all the momentum

As much as we missed it while it was happening, Trump had that same momentum in 2016. And he even was surging in 2020 the last couple weeks. SHe is surging right now.

[mvd]

5. 90%

Still have a lot of nerves today hoping I am right. Didn’t sleep well.

[-misanthroptimist]

6. Very sure she'll win

And it won't be close in the PV or EC.

[julmur]

7. Julmur

Just hoping beyond hope that the enthusiasm we’ve all seen these past few months will translate into votes!

[H2O Man]

8. 100%

[Elessar Zappa]

42. Nice!

[Johnny2X2X]

9. 0-25?

Getting some votes, anyone care to explain their vote for this? You know something we don't or are you just pessimistic.

[Diraven]

27. Most of the mainstream news sites

Seem to be predicting it will be close but Trump will win.

[Emile]

31. Since when?

[Diraven]

33. Ok maybe I'm just looking at the wrong sites

Telegraph has a story with 5 "election experts" and all 5 say Trump will win.

[Emile]

34. The Daily Telegraph bias is politically conservative

and supports the Conservative Party.

[Homoudont]

44. pessimistic

I didn't vote 0-25% but in general I am a very pessimistic person in every aspect of life. Some people are just negative no matter what. I wouldn't look into it too much.

[Self Esteem]

10. I voted 51-75 but I'm closer to 75 than 51.

I don't like your options lol

[Emile]

11. Kamala says we are going to win.

I believe her!

[Cairycat]

13. I'm quite confident that Kamala will win but

I am worried about what the MAGAts will do....

[jfz9580m]

15. I have been in the bullish group this election season

I did not make guesses regarding the outcomes of any previous elections. I am more gloomy Gus than cheerleader anyway, but this time somehow I have a good feeling about the result.

It has the feel of the 2008 election more than of any other recent presidential election I remember..

[Johnny2X2X]

17. For me, I started sensing 2008 a couple weeks ago

I go to Hapy Hour occasionally at a local dive bar. No one talks politics and at the 5 O'Clock hour they usualy have the news on and turned up. Well political ads came on and one of Trump's lying ads about Kamala and trans prisoners came on. A couple guys that I know are Republicans started making fun of how ridiculous that ad was and were laughing at it as being stupid and irrelevant. At that point, I think I realized those over the top ads Trump was running weren't hitting like his team thought they were, more Republicans weren't falling for this idiotic and pointless culture war memes anymore.

In 2016, you sensed a real Trump momentum going into election day, even if we tried to deny it. In 2020 he had a good couple last weeks and was the incumbent. His campaign limped to the end here and had a disasterous last week starting with the MSG Nazi rally. Polls and odds were moving his way at the end in 2016, they're moving her way this week.

[jfz9580m]

20. Thanks-interesting post

I go to Hapy Hour occasionally at a local dive bar. No one talks politics and at the 5 O'Clock hour they usualy have the news on and turned up. Well political ads came on and one of Trump's lying ads about Kamala and trans prisoners came on. A couple guys that I know are Republicans started making fun of how ridiculous that ad was and were laughing at it as being stupid and irrelevant. At that point, I think I realized those over the top ads Trump was running weren't hitting like his team thought they were, more Republicans weren't falling for this idiotic and pointless culture war memes anymore.

Yeah, sometimes you get this vibe about the general mood of the electorate..granted it is never 100%. But your analysis pretty much sums it up there. I don’t think any of their stunts from the last week worked..that garbage stuff was ridiculous.

So the transphobic stuff may backfire huh? Excellent..

I also had flashbacks to 2008 when Vance became a punchline back in July-August, very soon after appearing on the national scene .

It reminded of the Sarah Palin thing..each ticket had/has a rather old man at the top and supposedly fresh talent downticket: a pit bull soccer mom then, a hillbilly bootstrap puller now . And both turn out to be damp squibs to put it politely.

[Johnny2X2X]

26. Coud be more like 2012

Where the moods were similar to now and Obama just crushed polls to win in a rout.

On the ads, I am here in MI, the newspaper of record is the Detroit Free Press, they ran a front page feature about trans athletes competing in high school sports in the state, the official number they found out was ....2. There are 2 trans athletes competing in sports in the whole state and no one cares about it, but with the ads you saw on TV you'd think it was tens of thousands.

[jfz9580m]

28. Yeah - that does reek of desperation

It seems to be their last ditch effort and I doubt enough people care about it to : a) switch votes or b) start paying attention for the first time to then be swept up by Trump. The only people who care about this stuff outside trans people/their allies are the nutters already voting for Trump (and J K Rowling ).

Here is to hoping for the best !

[K221]

30. Not getting hopes up

The last time I had a good feeling about an election that seemed to be a toss up was 2004 and we saw how that turned out, definitely not getting my hopes up

[AZSkiffyGeek]

32. Welcome to DU

Your concern is noted.

[marble falls]

40. Seriously? Who did you vote for?

[palustris]

16. Optimistic but terrified

I'm terrified. Optimistic, but terrified. I don’t post much here; I’m a 'member' of NAFO (basically a shitposting Ukraine supporter), and I’ve donated thousands of dollars for their aid. Trump has picked the worst possible team and is the most dangerous candidate imaginable: an 80-year-old, diaper-wearing pervert with disastrous economic and foreign policies. An insurrectionist who should be in jail.

In contrast, Kamala Harris is a fantastic candidate with excellent economic policies, part of an administration that built the world’s strongest post-COVID recovery and an incredible economy.

It feels like the future of the entire free world hangs in the balance today. I’m not American, but I hope you won’t let us down. Most of you reading this have likely already voted or will, but if you haven’t, please do. It’s never been more important.

[GreenEyedLefty]

58. Hi fella!

Also a proud member of NAFO!

Thanks for the words of support. So much hangs in the balance

[crimycarny]

18. Trump MSG rally really hurt him I think

I feel like Kamala was going to win even before Trump’s disastrous MSG rally, but I feel that rally did irreparable damage to him. Since the MSG rally things have only gone downhill for Trump. Lots of missteps from his campaign (the stupid garbage truck moment felt like a Dukakis tank moment).

[Poiuyt]

19. I go back and forth between feeling good and worried

[Emile]

23. Trust Kamala, she is sure we're going to win.

[Polybius]

21. 65% confident

If Trump didn't have such an abysmal last two weeks, it would be at 50% or less.

[exboyfil]

22. Coin flip as far as I am concerned

Remember it is a lot more than just who gets more votes (or even wins the most EC votes). My concerns are violence and terrorism at key polling districts and what the subservient judicial system will do.

I am surrounded by a sea of Trump supporters. I have avoided any discussion of politics at my new employer.

[NavyDem]

24. I am about 90% confident.

I think so long as no one on the Democratic side thinks she's got it in the bag, and fails to vote, it will be a huge landslide. I'm fairly confident we learned from 2016 that we have to vote as if we are 10% behind.

I know at least 20 votes came for Harris/Walz here in San Diego from family I have in the area, so it's a start. 2 of those votes are family members who voted for dump the last election.

[missaj]

25. 26-50%

I felt some optimism yesterday, relief after I voted this morning, but still feeling unsure about how others will vote today.
I was more confident in 2020. This election is too close, and both sides think that momentum is swinging their way.

[Jarqui]

29. I think she'll win the vote but it is what Trump does

after that worries me - trying to block the Electoral College results from getting to Congress

[Bleacher Creature]

35. Nauseously optimistic.

[mommymarine2003]

36. My grandson who lives with us is voting for president for the first time.

He is home sick today but just came downstairs and told me that he would come down at 4 p.m. to watch the results come in with us (Pacific time as we live in Oregon) and would stay up until there were no more results that could come in. He knew what times the polls closed in Georgia, etc. I am happy to see him enthusiastic about the election. He was not excited about Biden, and I am not sure he would have voted. I love Joe Biden, but the younger generation really was struggling with his age. I am very nervous about the election but am cautiously optimistic.

[MaryMagdaline]

37. My brain tells me we are going to win

My nerves attack me even when my brain is positive. I’m just not a calm and cool person. If someone offered me a Michael Jackson coma drug, I would empty my savings to pay for it. Would go into a coma until Sunday.

[TheKentuckian]

38. 85% Bullish but not claiming certainty.

[Blue Full Moon]

39. I expect shenanigans from the GOP

[Elessar Zappa]

41. Probably about 75% but

I’m still nervous as hell.

[wiggs]

43. The country I've known for 67 years can't be so broken as to elect one of the worst

persons, worst politicians, worst human beings to office. So I'm confident.

Less confident than 2016, however, since my eyes have been moreopened to some of the surprising homophobic, misogynistic, racist dynamics in play...

[maxsolomon]

45. 25% confident. Managing to think about other things occasionally.

Don't expect to know jack tonight and expect the next month to be an absolute shit show.

[G_KIA]

46. I'm not loving today.

I feel cautiously optimistic, but with occasional bouts of nervousness. Like how are we even here again after everything this turd has put the country through? Should be a blowout of unprecedented proportions.

[canetoad]

47. If you click 'Show Usernames'

And check their joining date, there are a heap of utter pessimists who ALL joined on June 28 this year. This has applied in other polls too.

[Emile]

49. You been keeping an eye on them too.

[canetoad]

59. Yep Emile

Could just be a coincidence, but......than again. :

[Johnny2X2X]

50. Thjank you for pointing this out

I too have reported many obvious trolls with that exact same user creation date. I've also pointed it out in threads that that date was apparently the day a bot created a mass of users who almost all post constent negativity.

[FSogol]

54. What a co-winky-dink!

[Jason1961]

48. We're right where we need to be or ahead of schedule

I can safely say that we're either where we projected or ahead of the curve

I think the Debate really showed the Country who the better candidate was

As of this moment, I'm not worried a bit, I feel better about this than I did 2020, a lot better

[Johnny2X2X]

51. I think the closing rallies echoed the debate

The Nazi rally at MSG for Trump followed by Harri's big closing message rally on the Tuesday after really just brought everyone back to the debate where she just smacked him around like the feeble minded fool he is and all he could do was lie and be nasty.

If she wins, those few days will be pointed to as being pivotol.

[Jason1961]

56. You might be right

That rally in MSG was in very poor taste, along with the "jokes" and I think it will be one of the things we look back on and see that cost Trump dearly

[Tweedy]

52. Confident enough

My superstitions have reared their heads and are telling me not to tempt fate

[J_William_Ryan]

53. Not very confident.

Presidents are installed via a process both undemocratic and antimajoritarian, at time contrary to the will of the voters – as in 2000 and 2016.

There’s a great deal of fear, ignorance, stupidity, racism, bigotry, misogyny, and hate in support of Trump.

Hope I’m wrong.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

55. For those of you who haven't yet heard of

Alan Lichtman, google him, and watch some of the videos with him explaining his 13 keys.

[ravjav]

57. Confident but...

Still a nervous wreck. I'm high strung so that's not uncommon. However it is worse today.

[Emile]

60. Google: Kamala Harris Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster

[exboyfil]

61. I was right at 25-50%

Sadly.

[Javaman]

62. This didn't age well. nt

[jfz9580m]

63. No and I was one of the bullish ones

I suppose I was trying out the old “pep rally” thing for once. Never again.