My Fiscal Cliff Prediction

[louis c]

We're going over and I don't think that's such a bad thing.

Some people will get hurt for the first week to 10 days, including the 2,000,000 people on long term unemployment (greater than 6 months). However, that can be fixed, retroactively, if the Republicans agree to it in a package.

Tax cuts, which start at under $250,000 will pass within the first week of the new Congress. Republicans can't vote against that. Spending cuts (without entitlements) will be instituted and a 1 year agreement on extending the debt ceiling will also happen.

What will stay is the estate tax increase, a large increase in capital gains and a far more progressive income tax system. The middle class will not get out of this completely unscathed, as we will see the return of the "payroll tax" for Social Security and Medicare.

This will be done without the 55 or so Republican teabaggers, which will signal Boehner's final stint as House Speaker.

Let's see how close I come to being correct on this.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. I made a similar prediction to mom

Who is deadly afraid of the curb.

[2naSalit]

2. I suspect you're pretty close...

how do you speculate that it might impact DoD funding? I'd like to see a lot of it go away and redirect funding for implementing policies, education and modernizing infrastructure with sustainability in mind that we need really badly in the US of A. The infrastructure rebuild would create a lot of jobs right away.

[louis c]

3. I can't predict that specific

but I do think that the Defense spending will be tied to the Debt Ceiling extension.

The budget cuts may not be as attractive to us as the tax cuts.

[Moral Compass]

4. Mirrors my guess

You are describing the politically possible which is also the most likely.

God, politics is a messy business!

[doc03]

5. I hope you are right about the payroll tax cut, I think it was a stupid

idea to start with. I wouldn't be really be surprised that the House doesn't vote for the tax cut under $250,000, I don't think the teabaggers care about the economy, they're nuts..

[Skittles]

6. and those of us who can.......

help those who may be impacted!