Measuring the likelihood of Repealing the 2nd Amendment
Last edited Fri Dec 28, 2012, 02:57 AM - Edit history (8)
States have wide latitude to regulate (though no longer to ban) firearms.
This regulation is done by state legislatures. (With a governor's signature)
To ratify a constitutional amendment requires approval by three-fourths of those same state legislatures.
A hypothetical state legislature that would repeal the 2nd Amendment should have already repealed the 2nd Amendment to the degree it could... a hypothetical pro-repeal legislature should already be passing laws that put it pressed up against the boundaries of the 2nd Amendment.
In practical terms, when a super-majority of states have passed the most sweeping 2nd Amendment restrictions they are allowed under the current constitution it will suggest that a super-majority of states might repeal the 2nd Amendment because they are in conflict with the 2nd Amendment. That there is something they would do, but cannot short of repeal.
Put more succinctly, 2nd Amendment repeal would happen in a world where about 40 states are passing laws that are being struck down on 2nd Amendment grounds.
(Long before the repeal of prohibition, a number of states had repealed their state laws in support of federal prohibition. Those states showed themselves to be at least open to federal repeal. Similarly, though Washington and Colorado did not vote on federal marijuana laws this year they did everything they could in that direction by repealing their state anti-pot laws.)
Cable TV and the internet create a focus on the federal government while most things that actually happen (like redistricting, marijuana laws, marriage equality, union busting, voting availability, abortion availability, etc..) are, in practical terms, things done by state legislatures.
State legislatures are why the Republican Party still has great power. (Redistricting by state legislatures is why Republicans have a hold on the House of Representatives. The Senate cannot be redistricted since it is statewide.)
And gun control will be dealt with primarily on a state level for years to come. The states, as a class, have a lot of unused regulatory room.
Not just for guns, but for every issue we face the state legislatures are the key. State representative races are not sexy, but they are vital.
(And, as Republicans know well, unsexy local races can be turned on emotional single issues and not so much money. In local races it is conceivable to elect single-issue anti-gun moms, for instance.)
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