A Theory About The Origins Of The '80s Crime Epidemic Could Throw Everything We Know About Crime Pre

[FarCenter]

A Theory About The Origins Of The '80s Crime Epidemic Could Throw Everything We Know About Crime Prevention On Its Head

Drum describes Nevin's work:

[If] you chart the rise and fall of atmospheric lead caused by the rise and fall of leaded gasoline consumption, you get a pretty simple upside-down U: Lead emissions from tailpipes rose steadily from the early '40s through the early '70s, nearly quadrupling over that period. Then, as unleaded gasoline began to replace leaded gasoline, emissions plummeted.

Intriguingly, violent crime rates followed the same upside-down U pattern. The only thing different was the time period: Crime rates rose dramatically in the '60s through the '80s, and then began dropping steadily starting in the early '90s. The two curves looked eerily identical, but were offset by about 20 years.

In a later paper Nevin was able to find a lag time of 23 years between exposure and crime, explaining the tetraethyl lead used by General Motors in the '40s and '50s had led to the '60s, '70s and '80s. Nevin and other researchers were even able to find a correlation between the differing lead levels and different crime rates in different states and countries.

Scientific studies have also found a link, with Drum writing that one expert's summary of research showing that "even moderately high levels of lead exposure are associated with aggressivity, impulsivity, ADHD, and lower IQ. And right there, you've practically defined the profile of a violent young offender."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/lead-linked-to-crime-epidemic-2013-1

[AnnieBW]

1. Fascinating

Follow the link to the main article in Mother Jones. (I wonder if the MJ people realize that their article has been linked by Business Insider magazine?) I'm sending this article to Rachel Maddow. This is the kind of stuff that she likes.

It makes sense. I've been saying for years that the explosion of ADD, autism, and other neurological problems are caused by something in our environment. Some smart person has figured out one cause.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline?page=1

[leveymg]

2. Unless this study can show that highly-exposed groups - refinery workers, auto mechanics, etc -

display this sort of spike in aggressive, violent, criminal behaviors, and that it also receded in this group without any other identifiable cause during the same period, I think this is not a convincing conclusion.

This isn't to deny the known association between lead exposure and childhood mental and physiological problems. That's been known for decades and resulted in the ban in lead paint as well the decision to take tetraethyl lead out of gasoline.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

3. Read Freakonomics.

explains the crime rate drop in the 1990s, first in California and New York, because they legalized abortion before Roe v. Wade in 1973. Then the crime rate dropped in other states as well, starting 18 years after 1973.

[cthulu2016]

5. Abortion has declined steadily from a peak in about 1980-1983

So unless most crime is committed by toddlers...

There is a positive correlation of crime and abortion 1960-2012, but probably not one that makes sense in terms of potential criminals being aborted.

[HiPointDem]

6. freakonomics = junk science.

S.H.A.M.E. Profile: Freakonomics Author Steven Levitt Is An Anti-Labor, Pro-Prison Milton Friedman Extremist

As Steven Levitt’s S.H.A.M.E. Profile demonstrates, Levitt is a dyed-in-the-wool Chicago School neoliberal who believes in the sanctity of “the market” and a small government whose function is restricted mostly to protecting property rights. He has used “objective” economic research and mainstream credibility as cover, while attacking teachers’ unions, advocating for the privatization of prison labor, spreading crude climate denialism and promoting rank “free market” ideology that sees human labor as a resource to be extracted for maximum profit. Levitt has also developed a nasty habit of misrepresenting the research of other scientists in order to reach predefined ideological conclusions, and has failed to disclose financial conflicts of interest.

But perhaps the most disturbing thing about Levitt is his enduring interest in researching and “proving” the effectiveness of authoritarian and, some would say, borderline eugenicist policies. Aside from doing studies on the positive effects that incarceration has on society (we benefit to the tune of $15,000 per inmate per year if inmates are packed into overcrowded conditions), he published a paper that argued that an increase in abortion rates among black women in the 1970s was the main reason for a drop in crime in the 1990s. The methodology and data of his research were discredited by other economists, but Levitt stuck to his original conclusion linking race and crime: fewer African-American children correlates to less crime. Levitt’s explanation wasn’t just wrong, it was extremely sinister, reinforcing a racist stereotype of the worst kind with a seemingly modern “scientific” explanation.

http://exiledonline.com/s-h-a-m-e-profile-freakonomics-author-steven-levitt-is-an-anti-labor-pro-prison-milton-friedman-extremist/

http://shameproject.com/profile/steven-d-levitt/

[Scuba]

7. +1,000

[cthulu2016]

4. An interesting example of correlation vs. cause

The correlation of crime with Treasury Bill interest rates, for instance, is at least as strong as this. Probably stronger. I'm sure there's a persuasive theory to be formed in that, but it doesn't mean T-bills (or inflation, or high gas prices) cause crime.

The correlation with abortion is very strong, growing through the 60s and 70s, peaking in the early 80s and steadily declining since. Again, somebody could probably put forward some plausible theory as to why more abortions means more crime, but I wouldn't take much from the correlation.

Maybe having extreme right-wingers running the country, with breaks for very moderate Dems, since 1980 has reduced crime.

Crime has certainly declined in the 30 years the prison population has exploded. I would prefer, ideologically, for that correlation not to be there, but it is.

It's possible, of course. It rises to the level of a theory that can be examined, which is a lot more than can be said for some theories. But I'm just not loving this particular explanatory correlation.