There's very good odds that Newt Gingrich will be the Republican nominee.

[TheWraith]

Frankly, it's been obvious to me for a long time that Romney wasn't as "inevitable" as people imagined he was. Yes, the Republicans typically just nominate "then next guy in line." However, that was before "the next guy in line" was a Mormon and a flip-flopper. That 22% of people in the US who say that they would never vote for a Mormon? It's probably triple that in the Republican primary electorate. Romney can only win to the extent that the "not Romney" vote in the Republican base remains divided, so that he can "win" with 25-30% of the vote. It's not nearly divided enough for him anymore.

Meanwhile, I have no real expectation of either a brokered convention or a "dark horse" candidate getting nominated from the floor. The prospect of going to the beginning of September without a candidate would be disastrous for the Republicans; only slightly less so than pulling a bait and switch and attempting to push the party base into supporting a candidate who they had no choice in and was pushed on them by fiat. Look already how they're reacting to Romney, who's the choice of the party insiders, then multiply that by a hundred. You'd have open revolt, and if the candidate were deemed "insufficiently conservative" you'd probably see a very significant third party defection.

I think that Newt Gingrich is, right now, the odds-on favorite to be the Republican nominee for President.

[lumpy]

1. You would think that decent Republicans (there are some) would be in a quandry about the

Presidential picks. My bet is that many are feeling hopeless. Those in public office might be scrambling to find a way out of their mess.

[JaneQPublic]

7. Yep, particularly those who...

...are the Evangelist-Christian Social Conservative types who embrace "family values" or the Teabagger types who blame "Washington Insiders" for all of the country's problems. It would seem both of these types would not easily fall in line or fall in love with either Mitt or Newt.

[Hokie]

2. Not According to Intrade

Republican nominee:

Intrade - Republican Nominee
Romney 70.3%
Gingrich 16.0%

[DeathToTheOil]

8. When was that posted?

The link wouldn't work for me.

[TheWraith]

14. Intrade is hardly infallible.

They didn't have Obama take the lead in the Democratic nomination race in 2008 until May, long long after things were swinging his way.

[gateley]

3. I think the GOP would be horrified! They may just have taken their lumps and begun to

grudgingly accept Romney, then this guy who, much to their relief was considered out of it TWICE, rears his ugly head.

I've never seen the GOP "establishment" come in en mass so vocally and derisively against a fellow Republican as when Gingrich started gaining traction.

I'm not sure they would stand by and watch, though I'd love it if they did.

[jeff47]

4. No, he's not

I haven't been a good enough person for Newt to be the Republican nominee. Such a wonderful gift could only be given to truly good people.

[Fawke Em]

11. Is that you, Barney?

[Salviati]

5. My thoughts:

They republican base may not like Mitt Romney, but he is certainly a standard bearer for the republican party - he epitomizes everything that the republican party stands for, and I mean -really- stands for.

-the favoring of wealth over work
-the gutting of the middle class in the interest of their corporate masters
-the system of crony capitalism that rewards entrenched interests and abhors actual competition

If Mitt is the nominee then I think that all of these issues come up for debate, and this is a debate that I think the republicans are increasingly uncomfortable having in today’s political and economic climate. I think that if the republicans feel that Obama has a good shot at being re-elected, then they may feel that having Newt and the nominee may give them the best shot at avoiding such a debate.

If Newt ends up being the nominee, it will be because he can be counted on to spout enough stupid crap to keep the debate focused on Newt Gingrich, and not the efficacy of the republican rules that our economy has been running on for the last 30 years.

[TheWraith]

16. He may well represent the party insiders, but that's different from the voting base.

Gingrich is, right now, much more accurately representing the "voting base" of the party, who wants someone who will basically embody their racism, entitlement, and anger toward Obama and reflect it back to them.

[Wait Wut]

6. Agreed.

I've been noticing some freaking out today on the RW sites about Newt, though. Can't quite nail down the cause. I think it's just cold feet. I even noticed a few seem remorseful over the loss of Mittzie.

Whatever. I'm focusing on Newt. We've wasted too much time on Romney even though we knew he'd self-destruct. I feel the same way about Newt, but it'll be an uglier self-destruction that will take others with him. I'm expecting him to go into full meltdown during the first debate with our President. Pres. Obama will cause this just by being calm, cool, collected and intelligent. Newt hasn't had to deal with that type of opponent, yet. I don't think he'll handle it well.

[Mopar151]

9. Newt could be the new Spiro Agnew

To Mitt's Nixon

[rhett o rick]

10. I think it depends on who the authoritarian masters want. The Newt still can go

down in flames. Karl probably has lots of dirt on him.

[Initech]

12. It's sad when the choices are a rich serial adulterer and a rich vulture capitalist.

And the GOP base is dumb enough to vote in party line under the concept that these two are going to "take America back". From what exactly?

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

17. What you said, "a rich serial adulterer and a rich vulture capitalist"...

..that really boils the whole race down to its essence. Well stated!

It's funny, when you Google a rich serial adulterer and a rich vulture capitalist Google's results know exactly who you are referring to.

[Initech]

18. What would be worse though:

We could still have:

- Rich frothy mixture (Santorum)
- Rich ex-gay converter (Bachmann)
- Rich serial womanizer (Cain)
- Rich American History idiot (Palin)
- Rich serial executionist (Perry)

I think you get the idea...

[karynnj]

13. You could well have been right then and now

I absolutely agree that they really will not be able to put in someone who was not part of the primary. For all the reasons you listed and because they would pick someone (Daniels, Bush etc ) who is seen as more moderate than Gingrich. It would be as if the left most candidate did the best in out process and was then replaced by a centrist, who wasn't in the race. I can imagine the posts here!

The other factor is we already saw what an angry Newt would do - and what an angry Romney would do. Neither was a pretty sight.

[DFW]

15. That should be interesting

An overweight 68 year old fascist opportunist with a handshake like a dead fish being offered
as a candidate for president. As if their candidates in the last 3 presidential elections weren't
substandard enough.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

19. Frankenstein vs. The Penguin

Frankenstein will pull it out.