I wanted us to run against Newt

[cthulu2016]

There is a chance Obama could "lose to nothing" and Romney really is the proverbial "generic republican candidate." Romney is a bad candidate, but not a preposterous candidate. He's a usable game piece labeled Republican Candidate.

Running aginst Newt would be much easier and, like LBJ versus Goldwater, would provide an indeological mandate. We would beat Newt for being Newt. He would be the issue.

Anyway, I have been a little puzzled by the Newt-mania with people assuming Romney was finished. Newt has led the national polls several diffeent times now and each time it lasts for about a week. At one point I assumed Newt would win Iowa because it seemed impossible that he could lose a huge lead in only two weeks.

But two weeks is a lifetime (or marriage) for Newt.

As improbable as it seems, Romney is the frontrunner and always has been and will have a clean majority of all delegates and will get the nomination.

Nobody likes Romney. But not nearly enough Republicans hate Romney to cost him his position as "the guy who's there when you remember why some other candiate is utterly unelectable."

I've been rooting for Newt, but he is not going to win and the money will dry up.

My humble opinion.

[barbtries]

1. Obama should beat any one of the candidates in a landslide.

there's plenty of crap on romney, more every day. the thing about newt is "establishment" republicans know he'd be a disaster. but my money says if he got the nomination all the "establishment" republicans would get right on board with the teabaggers just as they did in 2010.
in the final analysis, none of them care about the country. the party is much, much more important. they all SUCK.

[cthulu2016]

3. Presidental elections are usually decided by a low-information middle

The thing about Newt is that normal people despise him on sight. He is very unlikable.

Obama is likable -- more liked than his policies.

Romney may be unlikable to you and me but he is not unlikable to the average person. He is weird and not charismatic but average people do not hate him on sight.

That's why Obama would do ten points better versus Newt. (Even if Newt and Romeny have the same baggage, same policies, etc.)

[immoderate]

2. Newt would be fun, and probably win back the House for us...

... but he's really a long shot. We shouldn't get our hopes up.

--imm

[arbusto_baboso]

4. Newt was never going to get the nomination.

Not enough money, too many people in his own party who hate him, too much baggage.

Even with the current crops of clowns he had to run against, Newt as the nominee was always a non-starter.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. I agree....been rooting for Newt.. What you said is so

true - Newt's a "preposterous" candidate.

I go back and forth about who would be better to run against.

Newt would be an almost sure win - even a lot of repukes hate him

But, Romney is actually missing some of Newt's stronger points, which is good. He
is not an intellectual like Newt is and may be good with pre-packaged zingers
when he knows what Newt is likely to say...but don't think he has the depth
of intellect to wing it.

Romney has zero warmth which Newt sometimes does exhibit. Romney is
merely an automaton. He is overly defensive, shrill, and anal retentive. This
comes across very obvious - especially when he stiffens up when opposed.

He should look very jittery next to calm Obama.

Also remember - there's value in the fact that a lot of repukes hate Mitt too.

[cthulu2016]

7. re: jittery

It's funny people don't comment on that more. His reputation is as being robotic, but he isn't. He giggles like a child and is perma-flustered.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. I recognize the MO a mile away because my husband reverts

to anal retentive if someone really moves his cheese. His mom
told me he lined all his cars up in a perfect row next to his
bed before he went to sleep.

Romney's Anal Retentive Behavior:
--The immediate change in his face when contradicted
--His whole body stiffens
--His speech speeds up
--Hi 100% focus on defending himself - never a reasoned analysis of different
sides of issues
--Zero nuance - all is black and white.
--Authoritarian - wouldn't let his kids stop on very long car trip

[yellowcanine]

6. I think Mitt is still going to win but he will be bloodied up a lot by Newt.

This means the enthusiasm for Mitt will be lukewarm among Republicans and even less so with independents. Mitt loses in this circumstance. But Newt of course loses by an even larger margin and probably carries a lot of Republican congressional candidates down with him. I still think Newt has some chance to win the nomination - I would guess about a 35% chance.