Will Obama cruise to a second term if Romney is the Republican nominee?

[INdemo]

Economic Gains, Questions on Romney, Boost Obama's Prospects for November

abc news poll:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=15519812

[CanonRay]

1. No, it will be a nasty, down to the wire fight

Especially if the European economy falls apart, which is likely. Rmoney will have tons of money and a million Mormon robots out on the streets campaigning.

[RevStPatrick]

6. I don't think it will be a cruise, but not down to the wire either.

The Main $tream Media will try to have us all believe that it will be down to the wire, and yes, it will be nasty. But come election day, Obama will win with at least the same margin as he beat McCain.

[Kwarg]

31. I agree 100%

People dont seem to realize that right now the right is split between romney and anti-romney... Once they have their nominee you understand what brings every one of them together? Their hate of Obama, thats what. Some have no idea what a shit storm is coming... Solyndra, Fast and Furious, debt mountain, arab spring blowback, the "one term proposition" quote and last but not least a redux of 2008 including:

1) wheres the whitey tape

2) jeremiah wright again

3) who was your coke dealer mr potus

4) kenya

5) birth certificate

6) vince foster


So prepare the buckets of orville redenbacher oh and #6 was a joke

[Firebrand Gary]

2. NO! This is going to be dog fight.

Romney has an army with tons of experience knocking on doors. He has endless financial support and in between now and november there could be a thousand variables.

Donate, make calls and knock on doors. If we are to win, we have a lot of work to do.

[CanonRay]

17. You and I are thinking along the same lines

I think what the LDS church was able to do on Prop 8, and in electing Rmoney, they will be fulfilling a Mormon prophecy. How many street workers will the put out there....a million? More?

[madokie]

3. You're forgetting the black box voting machines

when you use the word cruise. If not for those voting and vote counting machine black boxes, yes, he would win in a big ass landslide that would set the world on fire but we have this problem of voting integrity, we don't have it right now so it will surprise me if the pukes and their handlers don't steal this one like they did 2000, 2004.

peace

[Wind Dancer]

33. Yes..

.. and that is my biggest fear.

[edhopper]

4. No

Citizens United. They will spend literally billions in unregulated $$ to defeat him.

[DrDan]

5. the vote will be strictly down party lines - if the R's show up, it will not be a "cruise"

[TheCowsCameHome]

7. There will be no cruising by anyone.

This will be a nail-biter.

[auburngrad82]

8. I'm more concerned about taking back Congress

I'm feeling good about Obama's chances, but I don't want Dems to get complacent and not vote. That's what happened in 2010 and we ended up with the Tea Party.

[Icicle]

9. Debate

Obama will destroy Rmoney in any debate. The contrast between Rmoney and the other R candidates really isn't all that stark, but when we put him next to the president, the differences will be quite clear.

Of course, we must be vigilant about ballot-box shenanigans. You've seen what they've done in the past.....

And yes, auburngrad82, the house is very important, we must move forward.

[liberal N proud]

10. Assuming he can get Romney off script

It will be a blow out then, but the media will never tell it like that.

Romeny can't do unscripted conversations, his gaffs have all come when he went off script. They are not doing many interviews now and refuse to do any more debates.

[The Genealogist]

32. The way debates seem to work

In the interest of "neutrality," the media seems to call at least a couple of debates for the Repuke in the interest of "fairness." This "analysis" component of the "news" is often where the bias shows through most strongly.

[Liberal Veteran]

11. No. We must fight for every single vote!

Overconfidence is not called for.

[nevergiveup]

12. Assumptions on crusing

will lead to a bruising. Nothing about this election will be easy.

[HughBeaumont]

13. "Play like you're down by 14."

R-Money is a douche and blatantly insufferable when it comes to the 99 percenters, but American voters also made Bewsh II Terms happen (well, they also had a little help from Jeb, John Ellis, Kathy, Diebold, the Filthy Five and Ken Blackwell), so anything's possible.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Like another poster here the other day warned (channelling Han Solo):

Don't get cocky!

Even though things are looking up right now, the Republican/right-wing smear-a-thon tsunami (and the RNC) has barely begun. We should not rest on our laurels and, in fact, need to work as hard as possible to GOTV at all levels of government in November. We need to act like we're a few points behind than a few points ahead IMHO all the way along. Romney's not firing on all cylinders right now and may end up being a gaffe machine during the entire campaign but never underestimate the ability of the right-wing to be able to "paper over" them just enough to make him presentable to people.

[ZombieHorde]

15. Romney has a lot of money.

Lots of money is extremely useful for almost everything, but it is especially useful for politics.

[NorthCarolina]

16. The current crop of GOP idiots are a diversion, and were never intended to have a chance at being e.

Obama has already been slated a second term by the PTB. The election is just a nuisance formality to a predetermined contest.

[Douglas Carpenter]

18. If hostilities break out on the Persian Gulf - $200 + per barrel oil prices will break the economy

and will almost certainly result in a Republican victory. Other than that - things look very good for the reelection for President Obama

[unblock]

19. he will not "cruise" but he is certainly on a good path to victory regardless of the r-nominee.

look at lichtman's keys -- republicans hold very few of them.

in obama's favor:

obama is the incumbent
foreign policy successes (bin laden, libya, ending iraq war)
no foreign policy debacles
no sustained major social unrest
no credible third-party challenger
no credible primary challenge
no major scandal
short term economy ok -- we're not in a technical recession
no challenger charisma
there has been a mjaor policy change (health care, credit cards)


in republicans' favor:

republicans had a net pick-up of house seats in 2010.
obama MAY not bring back his 2008 charisma
the long term economy is not great (hasn't recovered enough)


obama may bring back the charisma leaving republicans with only two keys.
republicans need to hope for some major disasters for obama, including scandal, a foreign policy debacle, and some serious social unrest. one never knows, but for now, none of these seem to be in the offing.

[Common Sense Party]

20. Cruise? No. But he will likely win.

And I'm saying this from the center of Romneyville.

[libinnyandia]

21. Im worried about Roseanne Barr's candidacy

[boxman15]

22. It will be the nastiest race of my lifetime.

And the media will try its best to sell it as an extremely close election. However, I think Obama will win by roughly the same margin as he did against McCain in 2008, maybe slightly closer. But that's only if we "buy into" the media narrative and treat this as a very close 2000esque election.

[Safetykitten]

23. He is not going to win re-election.

It's fascinating that the narrative is now that happy days are here again, with an epically cooked unemployment number. Just one number and are picking out drapes.

He is not going to win becuase all those people managed to find a job are all working part-time. The rest still have no jobs and have been vaporized off the books. They do vote you know.

This is the reason he will not be re-elected. A monumental drop in the standard of living that has effected more people than you think.

Also we are not even factoring in the:

Coming collapse of the Euro.
Six buck gas.

Sorry to burst the bubble....

[AtomicKitten]

24. lol

[INdemo]

34. And just where do you fit in with the Romney campaign?

[arthritisR_US]

25. I fear he will lose due to voter suppression and rigged voting machines. n/t

[LynneSin]

26. Doesn't matter the nominee - he'll win

I thought Romney would be a tough competitor but these debates have shown the public just out of touch from real folks he is.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

27. Barring a major catastrophe or screw-up, this is his to lose.

Beyond the usual idiocy of the candidates, the Republicans have nothing to offer except a replay of Bush.

It will be a cakewalk for Obama unless the economy completely crashes or he's dumb enough to involve us in another dumb war.

[Rex]

28. I think so, yes.

The GOP shot itself in the foot way back when it picked this group of idiots to run for office.

[apnu]

29. He will not cruise to victory when the Koch brothers are pledging close to $100m in SuperPAC funds

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/03/koch-brothers-100-million-obama_n_1250828.html

[Jennicut]

30. Romney will not be a very good nominee.

Just as Bob Dole and McCain did not electrify the Repub party either. I don't think anyone cruises to win an election anymore. It will be nasty and the amount of money spent will be astronomical. But I feel he can pick Romney apart.