Who else is holding their breath until the SCOTUS decision on Prop 8 and DOMA is announced?

[Sivafae]

I had this feeling that it would come soon, and I suppose others are with me. But has been for me, a married hetero, a tense few days already. I really hope that they do the right thing. The "right thing" being upholding the equal protection under the law clause of the 14th amendment.

What say you? How do you think it will go?

[Tx4obama]

1. SCOTUSBlog wrote that the most likely days for an opinion on gay marriage are June 26 and 27.

-snip-

SCOTUSBlog wrote that the most likely days for an opinion on gay marriage are June 26 and 27.

-snip-

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/13/supreme-court-rulings_n_3435287.html

-snip-

Question: What’s the last day the Court will issue opinions?

Answer: We don’t yet know when the last day – which is presumably when the same-sex marriage rulings will come down – will be. Based on past practice, the most likely days are June 26 and 27. But we can’t say for sure.

-snip-

http://www.scotusblog.com/2013/06/faqs-opinion-announcement-days/

[Zorra]

5. A righteous decision in this case would be an awesome way for Pride Month to end! nt

[Gothmog]

2. I am really worried about the Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act case

Striking down Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act will give the GOP the ability to really suppress the rights of minority voters

[badtoworse]

3. It's hard to say how it will go.

What I think is more interesting is the potential impact of finding DOMA unconstitutional on other issues. I'm thinking of 2nd Amendment issues. If the SCOTUS rules that other states must recognize a same sex marriage performed under a different states laws, why would the same logic not apply to gun permits issued by another state? The RKBA was recognized as an individual right and incorporated under the 14th Amendment by the SCOTUS under Heller and McDonald. This could be interesting.

[Ms. Toad]

7. No.

First, the SCOTUS has already ruled that - dozens, if not hundreds of times. There is really no reason (other than bigotry) that it should require a new ruling. That's why it always drives me nuts when someone says let's just make every marriage a civil union and be done with it - always someone who has never spent any time reading all of the cases that have been battled to create the relatively seamless quilt of marriage. Each of those rulings about cross jurisdictional recognition (and not just the SCOTUS ones, the thousands of local and state ones) would need to be redone, at a cost of the individuals who are impacted by them.

Marriage is essentially a three "person" contract - the two members of the couple and the state. When couple moves from state to state, the new state steps in the role of the old state (except that the rules of the new state about the rights and obligations of marriage follow). If that didn't happen, marriages (which play a HUGE role in all sorts of things - inheritance, taxes, parenting, health insurance, echild support, tc.) would need to be dissolved and re-created whenever a couple moved from state to state.

There are very few indirect consequences of requiring a new gun permit when you move from state to state.

[badtoworse]

11. Maybe you're an attorney; I'm not.

If it were as simple as you say, how could you challenge DOMA if you accept that the laws of the new state apply when the new state does not recognize the contract as being legal? It seems to me that you need to establish a constitutional right to enter into such a contract, or at the very least, establish that the new state does not have the power to define such a contract as illegal. Can contracts or certain provisions be enforceable in some states, but not in others? If not, why do contracts typically identify the state under whose laws the contract should be interpreted?

I'd be surprised if the SCOTUS ruling was so narrow as to be limited just to marriage, but we'll see.

[LostOne4Ever]

4. I remaining cautiously optimistic

That they will strike down both DOMA and Prop 8 and make marriage equality the rule of the land!

[joeybee12]

6. I honestly don't know what they'll do...although if I had to bet, I'd

say DOMA is struck down, and they figure out some sort of compromise on marriage, leaving it to states...so as not to get the nutjobs in virulently red states to go rioting.

[davidn3600]

8. I think they will rule in favor of gay marriage, but it will be a narrow decision

That way it doesn't really do much. It will instead keep the debate rolling and keep the wind in the sails of gay marriage.

Since Roe vs Wade, the Supreme Court has sort of been hesitant to make broad, sweeping social decisions. Even Justice Ginsberg made a comment that the court should not be used to settle social debates and that it would be better to settle those through the normal legislative process.

So I think they will strike down Prop 8, and will rule against DOMA. But I don't expect them to make a decision where it declares that gay marriage should be legal everywhere. These decisions will be narrowly written. And then the court will see how the debate progresses. Eventually the court may need to rule broadly, but I don't expect that today.

[allin99]

9. i am. well, not holding my breath cuz i feel 100% sure...

they strike them both down, but i eagerly await it. i seriously can't wait.

[Loudly]

10. Decriminalization is barely a decade old.

Lawrence v. Texas decided June 26, 2003.

How are they going to go from decriminalization to anything but the most anemic of an advance whatsoever in ten years?

It took fifty-eight years from Plessy v. Ferguson to Brown v. Board of Education.

SCOTUS may move more quickly than they used to, but these folks are slowww.

[Agschmid]

12. I'll check in on this! n/t