GOP Might Just Stick with This "Party of White People" Thing

[babylonsister]

http://prospect.org/article/gop-might-just-stick-party-white-people-thing

GOP Might Just Stick with This "Party of White People" Thing
Paul Waldman
July 2, 2013

It's not completely crazy. But they could be screwed either way.



Since the 2012 election, most (not all, but most) Republicans have agreed that if they're going to remain viable in presidential elections in coming years, the party will have to broaden its appeal, particularly to Latino voters. There has been plenty of disagreement about how to go about this task. Especially over comprehensive immigration reform, which many Republicans see as too high a policy price to pay to achieve some uncertain measure of good will from those voters. But outside of conservative talk radio, there weren't many voices saying that they should junk the whole project. Every once in a while some voice from the past like Phyllis Schlafly would come out and bleat that the party should focus on the white folk who make up the party's beating heart, but to many it seemed like the political equivalent of your racist great aunt saying at Thanksgiving that she doesn't feel comfortable around those people.

But as immigration reform wends its tortured path through Congress, more mainstream Republicans are having second thoughts. In fact, significant backlash is brewing, not just to this bill but to the whole idea of Republicans working to appeal to minorities. Benjy Sarlin at MSNBC has an excellent article explaining how this backlash is spreading, noting that even some people who six months ago were blaming Mitt Romney's position on immigration reform for his loss are now saying that the only viable path to victory is getting turnout up among white voters.

snip//

By the same token, if you decide that you're going to focus your efforts on turning out the white vote, you won't only be sending a message to Latinos (and African Americans, and the fast-growing Asian American population) that you're not interested in them, you'll also be sending a message to moderate whites that your party might not be the kind of place they'd feel comfortable. This goes double for young white voters, who have grown up in a much more diverse culture than their parents and grandparents, and aren't going to be so hot on joining the Party of White People.

This is a dilemma for Republicans. Both paths are strewn with obstacles and dangers. Whichever one they choose, there's likely to be trouble.

[blogslut]

1. They've painted themselves into one hell of a corner.

And they've secured the corner with an electric fence, explosive mines around the perimeter and added a moat with sharks that shoot frickin' laser beams.

They can't move into the future without gutting their entire policy structure because that would result in the next few election cycles being lost, and they just. can't. allow. loss.

[babylonsister]

2. They had better stand by, because

they will learn to recognize loss intimately. It's amazing they don't already know that; I suspect some do, but maybe they figure they'll be long gone before consequences are felt. What's really astounding is they.don't.care. About their constituents or country; my read anyway.

[blogslut]

5. Sadly,

Thanks to voter suppression and gerrymandering, entrenched GOP state legislatures are still a problem. That and an uninformed/apathetic voting populace.

But, leave it to the GOP to continue bringing the crazy, foot-in-mouth goodness that pisses off even the most jaded voters.

[customerserviceguy]

7. In that corner

they have a majority of the House of Representatives, which as we've seen is enough to veto anything a Democratic Senate and President would want. At some point, they could regain a simple majority in the Senate, and no one party holds the White House forever. As it is their goal to defeat legislation, they win.

I do think that if Hillary runs, she will win in 2016, but twelve straight years of one party is pretty much the max for holding the Presidency. Of course, there was the FDR-Truman combination, but that's an aberration in US history, as it takes winning a major war to make it happen. And we certainly don't have the will to fight a war the way we did in WWII anymore.

[Jefferson23]

3. Fast tracking yourselves to oblivion, ok. n/t

[Yavin4]

4. The folks who want a Whites only party...

Will not be around when the demos shift. They will be long gone. In the mean time, they cannot abandon their core audience who listens to their radio shows and buys their crappy books.

[Motown_Johnny]

6. They are screwed either way, the difference being

that if they don't do anything on Immigration Reform then they are screwed in the long term. It won't hurt them much short term because minorities would not flock to them right away anyways. Immigration Reform would give them a chance to attract non-white voters 20 years from now in a way they won't be able to without moving on reform.


If they do move on Immigration Reform then they are screwed in the short term. Once again, the minorities won't flock to them right away no matter what but their base will shrink immediately and many (R)s now in office will have problems that they wouldn't have if they played to their base.




This is why I think Immigration Reform is even harder to pass than most people realize. It isn't just that the Republican party is broken and therefore The House is broken. The basic mindset of a Conservative is to play the short game. They don't think beyond the "Greeted As Liberators" phase. In My Opinion, a majority of them will come to a conclusion that not passing Immigration Reform is the right thing for their party and therefore the right thing to do for America. I sincerely hope I am wrong but I don't expect The House to pass a bill.

[customerserviceguy]

8. Sorry, I can't see that

Yes, current Rethugs who kill immigration reform may be in trouble with a country where the white majority turns into a minority, but most of them will be dead or retired by then. New GOP'ers will claim that they never supported screwing minorities, and we'll have the Repukes doing divide and conquer as only they can.

[Motown_Johnny]

9. Then the new GOP'ers will need to do Immigration Reform

since in this hypothetical it never got done.



Those future (R)s will be in the same predicament as the current ones. If they do something reasonable their base will abandon them and minorities will not swarm to them quickly enough to help them.

[customerserviceguy]

10. My guess is

they will lose their majority in the House at some point, then we will get immigration reform. Once it's a done deal, future Rethugs will claim that they were OK with it all along.

They're adept at trying that sort of crap.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. That will take decades

and with our (in this hypothetical) having The House as well as the demographic advantage for winning The White House and The Senate then you are suggesting the (D)s will have one party rule for some period of time. During this time we can, hopefully, make some basic changes which will help make the system more fair and to help guarantee voting rights to the disenfranchised.


Yes, the pendulum will swing back and the (R)s will be able to put this Immigration fight behind them (assuming the party does not split). I believe that is so far in the future, and will require so many changes on basic issues, that this future Republican party will have very little resemblance to the one that now exists. We will be back to the pre-Reagan days when the (R)s could actually do things like create the EPA, reform health care and have top tax brackets of 70% or more without their base abandoning them.

I look forward to this outcome. I don't have a problem with conservative viewpoints being debated so long as they are based in reality and presented honestly. There are some rare occasions when Progressives need to be held in check. I am all for a two party approach to governance so long as both parties are honest and playing by the rules.

[customerserviceguy]

13. Not necessarily

You may have Rethugs primaried for being too moderate, and then a Democratic candidate can win, just as happened in the Indiana US Senate seat, and Todd Akin's race in Missouri. The Tea Party might just be the poison pill that knocks out the Repukes.

[Motown_Johnny]

14. Which is why I wrote

(assuming the party does not split)


It is starting to sound like you agree with my first post. They are screwed either way, just one way it is short term and the other it is long term.

[Jamaal510]

11. You almost want to feel sorry for Republicans, but it's their own fault.

They keep on with bigoted rhetoric. They claim to support freedom, yet continue to be in women's vaginas and make it more inconvenient to vote. They oppose education and science. They refuse to moderate their platform. And they refuse to be on the correct side of any issue, even the Drug War as Bill Maher once suggested. All of this is why an increasing number of voters are ditching them for the Democrats.

Bobby Jindal may have been right. Maybe they are the stupid party.