President Obama is showing considerable genius

[MineralMan]

right now. By raising the whole contraception issue through requiring coverage, he has more or less forced the Republicans to take a negative stance on contraception. Since the voting booth is not the confessional, women will respond by voting for what they know makes sense, regardless of party or religious affiliation. Contraception knows no political or religious boundaries, either. It's been many decades since women allowed themselves to be continuous baby machines. That's demonstrated by the current birth rate in the US. One figure has 70% of Catholic women using contraception at some point in their lives.

The Republican men seem to not realize this, just as they don't seem to realize so many things. Polls are already showing the result of this move by Obama. I think other moves are coming up soon that will also force the Republican candidates to take positions that go against their own voters. I'm not sure which issues those will be, but the genius shown in the contraceptive issue should produce other effective issue-oriented moves that will confound the Republican by blind-siding them.

Congressional and senatorial candidates need to pay close attention to what is happening and bring these issues to their own districts and states and push their Republican opponents into untenable opposition to popular issues. There's a bright band of sunlight forming on the horizon, I think. The sun is about to come up.

[MineralMan]

1. Shameless Self-Kick.

[ProSense]

2. Why

are you hiding?

[ellisonz]

16. *throws rotten tomato*

[MineralMan]

18. *sees it coming and ducks successfully*

Not born yesterday....

[ellisonz]

20. *launches watermelon from trebuchet*

[MineralMan]

21. "unsheaths sword and splits it, sending halves to either side."

I'm on to your attempts. Pthpthpth!

[zipplewrath]

3. Still got that hope huh?

I agree that the administration hasn't received the backlash many thought they might. The explanation might be a bit simplier.

The people whose opinions will be swayed in the next 9 months are the middle/centrist/independents. Their primary focus is most likely the economy, PERIOD. The GOP tactic of trying to leverage social issues just isn't going to gain traction. Especially 50 year old social issues that many people have considered "settled" for some time. Believe it or not, a huge portion of the country doesn't even understand the first amendment in any techncial detail and don't care about subtleties of who pays for what and how. They DO care about how much they pay for gas however.

Obama is going to live and die by the economy, and to the extent that the GOP tries to distract the country from the economy, for better or for worse, they do so at their own peril. I think that's why you see them punting on the whole payroll tax issue. They realize they cannot be seen as "raining on the parade". Especially BECAUSE it is a very weak recovery, the independents don't want to see anyone hurting it in anyway.

Obama only has to worry about the economy. However, individual congressional districts have different challenges. They aren't seen as primarily connected to the economy. Social issues and philisophical stances mean much more in many of those races.

[ProSense]

5. President Obama

Still got that hope huh?

I agree that the administration hasn't received the backlash many thought they might. The explanation might be a bit simplier.

The people whose opinions will be swayed in the next 9 months are the middle/centrist/independents. Their primary focus is most likely the economy, PERIOD. The GOP tactic of trying to leverage social issues just isn't going to gain traction. Especially 50 year old social issues that many people have considered "settled" for some time. Believe it or not, a huge portion of the country doesn't even understand the first amendment in any techncial detail and don't care about subtleties of who pays for what and how. They DO care about how much they pay for gas however.

...is way ahead of you: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002317181

As for the rest, this issue is driving a big fat wedge among the GOP. It's exposing Republican extremism, hypocrisy and leading GOP elected officials to say and take some of the most backward, counterproductive and idiotic positions.

[zipplewrath]

10. Yup

The independents will rise and fall as a function of the economy right now. Obama probably doesn't have to worry about these wedge issues at all. If the economy stays, they won't matter. If it tanks, well, they in essence still won't matter. What worries me is that this places his re-election in the hands of external actors over which he has little control or influence.

1) The european debt crisis. It could go south at anytime and screw us all. And they aren't listening to us.
2) Iran: Israel could attack. Iran could go on the offensive and try to close the straits, or crank up some terror attacks of their own.
3) Syria widens the conflict: The rebels could seek to widen the conflict, Assad could seek to widen the conflict. Either way it could turn an arab spring into a summer fire storm
4) Natural Disaster. Katrina like fiasco that damages the economy. Another major oil leak. A large epidemic. Something that makes gas prices skyrocket, or food, or both.


Fortunately, the GOP isn't in much of a position to influence these things either.

[ProSense]

13. This

Yup

The independents will rise and fall as a function of the economy right now. Obama probably doesn't have to worry about these wedge issues at all. If the economy stays, they won't matter. If it tanks, well, they in essence still won't matter. What worries me is that this places his re-election in the hands of external actors over which he has little control or influence.

1) The european debt crisis. It could go south at anytime and screw us all. And they aren't listening to us.
2) Iran: Israel could attack. Iran could go on the offensive and try to close the straits, or crank up some terror attacks of their own.
3) Syria widens the conflict: The rebels could seek to widen the conflict, Assad could seek to widen the conflict. Either way it could turn an arab spring into a summer fire storm
4) Natural Disaster. Katrina like fiasco that damages the economy. Another major oil leak. A large epidemic. Something that makes gas prices skyrocket, or food, or both.


Fortunately, the GOP isn't in much of a position to influence these things either.

...reads like a whole lot of concern akin to "anything can happen," which is completely unrelated to the OP.

[progress2k12nbynd]

27. Crazy what we consider high gas prices just 4 years later...

$3.59/gallon here in a rural area in the dead of winter, only 1 war to blame now and yet we're talking about potentially high gas prices? What's high now? $6?

[Surya Gayatri]

23. Keep the faith, Zipple...

All is not lost...

All manner of disaster could still befall BHO's administration!

There's always hope--the Yellowstone caldera could erupt and cover a third of the US in hot ash.

Or the magnetic poles could suddenly invert and plunge the Earth into chaos. There's even the outside chance of a direct asteroid hit.

So ya' see? No need to sit around and pout!
SG

[zipplewrath]

25. Like I say

The encouraging part about it is that there really isn't anything the GOP can do to Obama at this point. They're playing their most desperate cards and they aren't working. This election will be a referendum on Obama and really on Obama's handling of the economy. You can see it in their reaction on everything from the GM news to the Chrysler ad. Obama's vulnerabilities are completely beyond their reach. The only thing that concerns me is that unfortunately, to a great degree, they are beyond his as well.

It'll be a tense 9 months. Economically, it might pass the worst threats from Europe by June.

[The Doctor.]

28. His timing is nearly perfect.

Think about it, the economy is showing very solid signs of recovery. If you know anything about national economics, you know that good indications are forcing mechanism. Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, we can expect that the economy will continue to recover. Iran is being carefully positioned to become cooperative maybe mid-year. If sanctions are lifted on Iran, we can expect gas prices to go down.

If all stays the same, Obama's a shoe-in.

If gas prices drop by November, it'll be a landslide.

[Kahuna]

19. Yep. It's Terry Schiavo redux. Can you say ..

Overreach?

[MineralMan]

14. I do, yes.

And you're trying to divert from the topic of this thread, which is about Obama's genius at turning the Republicans against their own constituents. He's just getting started with this. I'm not talking about what you're talking about. You might want to start your own thread with your own ideas, rather than trying to divert this one.

[zipplewrath]

15. Different interpretation

I don't think it was an intentional strategy on the part of the White House. All public indications are that there was resistence within the White House from even picking this fight. I think it worked in their favor anyways for the reasons I outlined. It remains to be seen whether they decide this is a strategy to be repeated. I'm dubious, although the GOP appears to be just dumb enough to continue it for them, without the White House's concious help.

[Liberal_in_LA]

4. Lawrence (guy on same channel as Rachel) was making this point also.

He said he wants Santorum to be the GOP nominee to initiate a debate between liberalism and real conservative values. Guess which argument would win?

[SidDithers]

6. Yup. He's made the GOP the anti-woman party...

I mean, they've always been that way, but now it's explicit.

Sid

[CaliforniaPeggy]

12. I don't think he made them that way. They did that themselves...

He's defined them that way, and it's accurate.

And yes, explicit.

[The Doctor.]

29. Spot on CP.

We need to keep educating the people about the anti-woman, anti-worker, anti-middle class Republican party.

[NNN0LHI]

7. I have been trying to decide if he is real lucky or real smart myself

I still can't believe Romney was stupid enough to write another op-ed against saving GM and Chrysler a couple of days before GM announces record profits.

Unbelievable.

Don

[MineralMan]

11. Oh, I think he's real smart. He knows exactly what he's doing.

You're going to see more smart moves as the campaign progresses.

[tblue37]

24. Although I sometimes get frustrated with Obama for not pushing the progressive line hard enough,

I have also often thought, as Andrew Sullivan recently claimed, that he is actually being quite clever at playing a “long game,” and that his apaprent failure to meet the expectations of lefies like me in the short-term might actually be effectie tactical moves in a long-term progressive strategy.

On the old DU2 I started a thread with an OP entitled “Is Obama a "stealth" progressive? (Could be.)”:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x631285

My point in that OP was that despite the sneers people often posted about it, he might be playing multidimensional chess after all, and that we might see surprising results as he faced election again.

MineralMan, you were not one of the people who posted on that thread, so if you didn’t see it, you might like to use that link to read my OP.

[zipplewrath]

17. Gary Player

Gray Player used to say the more he practiced, the luckier he got.

It doesn't have to be specifically intentional, for intelligence to be the source of the "luck".

I'd bet they are getting better in the WH at anticipating the really dumb stuff the GOP does, and being prepared to address it when they do it.

[malaise]

22. It's delish!

I'm lovin' it.

[bklyncowgirl]

31. A bit of both probably. Having really dumb opponents can make you seem like a genius.

Smart enough to take advantage of a changing situation that he is not fully in control of, correcting mistakes and lucky enough to have opponants dumb enough or so blinded by their own tunnel vision that they end up infuriating the average voter.

Action: Obama Admin orders NPOs owned by religious groups to pay for contraceptive. Unless you believe that Obama was willing to risk the loyalty of the Catholic voters in order to lure the GOP into a trap, this was probably a political miscalculation.

Reaction: Totally Predictable Catholic bishops throw a hissy fit. The GOP piles on beating the drums for religious freedom. Even liberal Catholics are not happy about the government ordering their church around. Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the issue things are not looking good for Obama fortunately, our man is quick of foot and nimble of wit--the GOP not so much.

Obama Reaction: Smart Obama proposes a solution that allows the Bishops to save face. This could be seen as caving in but the Republicans jump in just in time to save his bacon. The Catholic reaction (a few hard liners accepted) is very different from the Republican reaction.

Catholic Reaction: Predictable While some Bishops are unhappy with the solution, most rank and file Catholics and even some Catholic clergy & religious, including the head of Catholic Charities says it works for them. Rank and file Catholic clergy have been playing the "Don't ask don't tell" game with their parishioners for years and most probably just hope this issue will go away before they have to give a sermon on it and risk losing half their parishioners.

GOP Reaction: Dumb While most Catholics have moved on, the Republicans are still beating the religious freedom drum and have now even maneuvered themselves into appearing to be against birth control. This is a fight dear to the heart of some in the nuttier wing of the Religious Right but not in the least appreciated by anyone else including Republican suburban women. Chairman Issa holding a hearing on birth control without having a single woman on the panel, and Santorum's sugar daddy's joke about the contraceptive properties of asperin is just icing on the cake.

[NNN0LHI]

32. You write and explain these things very well

That post probably deserves to be a separate OP all by itself.

Thank you.

Don

[tallahasseedem]

8. I agree...

all of this is a true war on women and this woman refuses to let her daughter grow up in a country without options.

[oldhippydude]

9. thanks for the thread..

all of sudden, i flashed back to the 70's movie "the sting"... Scott Joplin music and all.. im beggining to get a whole different perspective on this years election.. the Republicans just keep on giving..

while the Republican party its truley reactionary, in fact probably proto-fascist, the good news is that they have finally aleinated enough people, that the dmise has an element of comedy.. im going to need a lot of popcorn, along with shoe leather this time around..

by the way.. sure feels good to be on the winning side for a change!!

[BumRushDaShow]

26. The GOP has gone full bore towards the cliff

[TBF]

30. He is definitely doing this the right way -

showing their true colors on contraception is brilliant. And you're absolutely correct that women will remember it when they're in the voting booth. I've known older women from my family who would listen to their husbands spout off on politics and candidates they didn't like, they'd say nothing but vote for who they want. If this keeps up President Obama is going to win by a landslide.

[nanabugg]

33. The President hasn't done anything but allow them to be themselves.

And that's enough to turn anyone's stomach.

[Courtesy Flush]

34. He really could play this angle more than he does

Republicans' knee-jerk opposition to everything Obama supports can be used against them. If Obama supports apple pie and John Wayne, Republicans will suddenly despise them.

He coulld really make them paint themselves in a corner by pushing for more things that have traditionally had bi-partisan support, until he has the GOP alienating just about everybody... including their base.

[MineralMan]

35. I think you may see more of this kind of thing

as the year progresses. You're right. It's a good idea. Since the Republicans have sworn to oppose anything Obama proposes, there's lots of room for forcing their hand.

[protect our future]

36. And we will saturate the Internet

with news and stories and facts proclaiming Obama's genius, won't we. Time to instill the feeling of hopelessness in the minds of Republicans.