Intel: Iran not likely to attack if not provoked

[The Northerner]

Iran is not likely to attack the United States abroad or domestically if it is not provoked, according to a top military intelligence official.

Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told senators on Thursday that Iran is prepared to retaliate against the United States and its allies in the Middle East if it is attacked, but is unlikely to do so if not provoked.

“Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz — at least temporarily — and may launch missiles against United States forces and our allies in the region if it is attacked,” Burgess said in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“Iran could also attempt to employ terrorist surrogates worldwide — however, the agency assesses [that] Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict.”

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/211123-iran-not-likely-to-attack-if-not-provoked

[surfdog]

1. Same thing was said about Iraq

And yet here we are

[truebrit71]

2. Iraq didn't have a military or an air force worth a damn. Iran does.

No way Iran attacks anyone first as they know that doing so would unleash hell on earth...the only way this gets started is if Nutty-Yahoo decides he's going to strike first and hope that his American Sugar Daddy has his back...

[teddy51]

3. The trouble is, that's exactly what I see happening. Sure hope that the US is smart enough to

not have Netanyahu's back.

[truebrit71]

6. Yup...me too...

[Ghost Dog]

4. Bullying is a big problem.

Bullying is a big problem. It can make kids feel hurt, scared, sick, lonely, embarrassed and sad. Bullies might hit, kick, or push to hurt people, or use words to call names, threaten, tease, or scare them.

A bully might say mean things about someone, grab a kid's stuff, make fun of someone, or leave a kid out of the group on purpose.

Some bullies threaten people or try to make them do things they don't want to do...

... Some bullies are looking for attention. They might think bullying is a way to be popular or to get what they want. Most bullies are trying to make themselves feel more important. When they pick on someone else, it can make them feel big and powerful...

/... http://kidshealth.org/kid/feeling/emotion/bullies.html

... Okay, so there you are, and someone is bullying you. What do you do "in the moment"?

- Ignore the bully. Pretend you didn't hear him. Don't even look at him. Walk right past him if you can.
- Don't cry, get angry, or show that you're upset. That's the bully's goal. Don't give her the satisfaction. Even if you're feeling really hurt, don't let it show. You can talk about or write down your reactions later.
- Respond to the bully evenly and firmly. Example: "No." "That's what you think."
- If you can, turn a comment into a joke. Example: The bully says, "Stupid outfit!" You say: "Thanks! I'm glad you noticed."
- Turn and walk away, or run if you have to. Remove yourself from the situation. Go to a place where an adult is present.
- Remember that you are not the one with the problem. It's the bully who has the problem...

/... http://pbskids.org/itsmylife/friends/bullies/article4.html

[truebrit71]

7. Posted by mistake?

...?

[Ghost Dog]

15. Nope.

Unprovoked, perhaps.

[RZM]

8. What makes you think a nuclear-armed Iran wouldn't be a bully

I think their desire for the bomb is twofold:

1) To deter aggression, notably American and Israeli aggression.

2) To have leverage over the non-nuclear Sunni Arab states in the region.

You hear a lot about the first, but not so much about the second. A common mistake people make is to fail to appreciate the perspectives other countries see the world from. While Americans (and others) may view Iran as a middling power at best, I don't think many Iranians (especially in the leadership) see it that way. Many probably see their country's rightful place as that of a great power. The bomb is one means of achieving that status.

[WCGreen]

10. Exactly...

Iran is the modern version of the Persian Empire and they truly believe that...

[gratuitous]

5. Next: Operation Poke the Bear

If Iran isn't going to provide us a casus belli, we'll just have to force them to do so. And, as we've seen in the past (Gulf of Tonkin anent Vietnam, World Trade Center anent Iraq), the United States will institute military action based on anything or even nothing.

[Dreamer Tatum]

9. Whom do you think is President right now? nt

[gratuitous]

12. From what I've seen . . .

A person who revels in extra-judicial executions of persons domestically and abroad, who continues to hold prisoners incommunicado without counsel or charge, and who isn't terribly respectful of the Bill of Rights.

All in the name of expediency and "protecting" the United States, of course. Oh, and because of political realities that he doesn't dare disturb.

I'd prefer someone who takes his oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution a little more seriously. Unfortunately, none of the current crop of political Lilliputians in a position to win office in 2012 qualifies, so we're stuck with the best of a bad lot.

[woo me with science]

13. And these "political realities" will ensure that our choices remain limited in this way

until we get the corporate money out of our political system. '

Good post.

Occupy.

[Cali_Democrat]

11. There's the rub

They WILL be provoked by Israel and/or the US. It started with the flying of drones over their territory and the assassination of Iranian scientists on Iranian soil.

Iran has shown tremendous restraint thus far.

[woo me with science]

14. Indeed.

Messing with food supplies is a big one.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101447252

[stevenleser]

16. No one is likely to attack if unprovoked. Problem is, the definitions of 'provoked' vary

That is really where the issue is.

[LadyHawkAZ]

17. Duh?

Obvious intel is obvious. The big question is who will do the provoking and how much it will take.