Syrian government says civil war has reached stalemate

[dkf]

Exclusive: Deputy PM says neither side is strong enough to win and government will call for ceasefire at Geneva talks

The Syrian civil war has reached a stalemate and President Bashar al-Assad's government will call for a ceasefire at a long-delayed conference in Geneva on the state's future, the country's deputy prime minister has said in an interview with the Guardian.

Speaking on behalf of the government, Qadri Jamil said that neither side was strong enough to win the conflict, which has lasted two years and caused the death of more than 100,000 people. Jamil, who is in charge of country's finances, also said that the Syrian economy had suffered catastrophic losses.

"Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side," he said. "This zero balance of forces will not change for a while."

Meanwhile, he said, the Syrian economy had lost about $100bn (£62bn), equivalent to two years of normal production, during the war.

If accepted by the armed opposition, a ceasefire would have to be kept "under international observation", which could be provided by monitors or UN peace-keepers – as long as they came from neutral or friendly countries, he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/19/syrian-government-civil-war-stalemate

[David__77]

1. I could see Qadri Jamil as president of Syria in the future.

The idea of him leading has been floated in Russia before, not that they should be interfering at that level...

He is an opposition representative within the government, and a leftist.

[MADem]

4. If that happened, that would be a "Yemen scenario"--something the US government has

been in favor of for the last two years, at least.

All the regime structures--the bureaucracy, the public works, the civil service sector--remains in place with no disruptions. Only the guy at the helm, and perhaps his (or her--it could happen, ya never know) advisors change.

[pampango]

2. Certainly a positive development. Juan Cole has made the point before that a negotiated

settlement is possible when both sides realize that they cannot win militarily.

The hope for avoiding another decade of killing is that the governmental elite and the rebels get tired of fighting and prove willing to make a deal. It is probably too late for Syria to succeed at the kind of transition achieved in Yemen. There, the president stepped down and his vice president ran for his seat. At the same time, members of the opposition were given seats in the cabinet. That kind of cohabitation with the former enemy is easier if too much blood hasn’t been shed.

The best solution for Syria would be if President Bashar al-Assad steps down and the Baath Party gave up its dictatorial tactics. At the same time, the rebels would have to forewswear al-Qaeda-type extremism.

Probably each side would have to feel that they could not gain any substantial benefit from further fighting, for negotiations to have prayer of success.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/09/attack-syria-prolong.html

...the Syrian army has shrunk through Sunni desertions to a shadow of its former self and so can’t control the whole country any more.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/08/killing-hundreds-obamas.html

[ProSense]

5. It's an interesting development given that during the interview with Kucinich

Assad insisted that it wasn't a civil war, that the country was being attacked by al Qaeda.

Assad Tells Kucinich Chemical Weapons ‘Not a Secret Anymore’ During...Fox Interview (updated 2x)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023692289

From the OP:

"Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side," he said. "This zero balance of forces will not change for a while."

One of the reasons given to cast doubt on why he would launch a chemical attack was that he was winning. Guess not, huh?

[David__77]

9. Assad is a different person that Qadri Jamil.

They have different perspectives, and are members of different political parties.

[ProSense]

11. Are you suggesting

"They have different perspectives, and are members of different political parties."

...that Syria has two "different" governments?


"Speaking on behalf of the government..."

Assad is President.

[David__77]

13. Only in the sense that is common with governments in different countries.

Particularly when there is a coalition government. In Germany, Merkel ruled together with the Social Democrats - you did indeed have ministers voicing different views. That said, it is clear that in Syria the Baath Party is the ruling party and exercises state power.

[ProSense]

15. The person was "speaking on behalf of the government"

An official's POV not shared by Assad is meaningless.

[Turborama]

21. That's what struck me when reading the headline, thanks for providing the link

Assad was saying the same thing at the beginning of all this, when they were just unarmed protesters in the street being murdered by his snipers or abducted and tortured by his secret police.

[Uncle Joe]

3. I believe this is a positive development.

Last edited Thu Sep 19, 2013, 06:40 PM - Edit history (1)

Thanks for the thread, dkf.

[libdem4life]

6. Left to make their own decisions, look what happens. Has anyone even heard the term "cease fire"

from any of the chattering helpful "other" nations? Hell, just last week the US stumbled on to this obscure concept known as Diplomacy. (Disclaimer: I voted for Obama but vehemently disagree with him on this)

And no, I don't give credit to the force of bombing...or the maintaining the option of bombing...or the blank check from the American Congress... a Presidential Executive Order or any of the other Bully Positions we hopped on to these past few days. Same goes for Russia.

Each country must work it out for themselves for a settlement to be worth anything.

[dkf]

7. I don't know who they will be negotiating with since the opposition is fractured.

I wonder if this isn't more to get the countries behind the funding, ie Qatar, SA, US etc out of the picture.

[libdem4life]

8. Probably in their imaginations it would be done via the UN with the US and Russia duking it out...

creating a civil war to be a proxy war while preening to the world as to their status as world leaders.

I agree with you ... some elements inside wised up as to the ramifications on both sides and said, let's keep this what it is...a Syrian problem with a Syrian solution.

[Posteritatis]

10. Wow. That's a heck of a statement from the government. (nt)

[Sand Wind]

12. Regime Last week: Why would we use CW when we are winning...

Regime Last week: Why would we use CW when we are winning Regime today: It's a stalemate, we can't win neither can they. Assad taking everybody for a ass.

[David__77]

14. Qadri Jamil has always said this.

Go back many months and he has said this. So has the vice president when he has given interviews. There are different voices in the government - whether they actually have different opinions or it is a tactically thing is open to conjecture.

[dkf]

16. Interesting. I didn't realize there were other leading voices in the government.

Whenever we hear of Syria we only hear of Assad, like he rules with an iron hand.

[David__77]

17. I wouldn't say it's some democratic debating society.

Not by any means. But there is a modicum of coalition government, with the legislature having opposition members, and the ruling coalition itself included parties other than the Baath. Two communist parties, for instance, are represented in the "National Progressive Front" and the legislature, and they do criticize government policies (especially the economic ones).

I don't think that parties other than the Baath Party truly exercise political power, however.

[dkf]

18. What about things like chemical weapons?

Is there any type of democratic agreement over something like this?

How does the military work? Is it under Assad?

[David__77]

19. I don't think intelligence agencies are so sure about that.

All I can offer is an opinion that the military does not in a de facto sense report to Bashar al-Assad - certainly not in strictest sense. It always seem strange to me when pro-insurgent talking points refer to Assad, Assad, Assad, because that individual isn't the crux of it all. It is rather the many nameless bureaucrats whether in the military, the Baath Party, or the government.

[dkf]

20. No kidding. Well that is not the impression anyone gives.

Where are you finding your info? Sounds like you have been looking deeply into this?