North Korea's Impending Collapse: Three Grim Scenarios

[applegrove]

North Korea's Impending Collapse: Three Grim Scenarios

by Geoffrey Cain at Global Post (Business Insider)

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-koreas-impending-collapse-three-grim-scenarios-2013-9

"SNIP.............................


Civil war

Experts doubt that the North Korean regime would succumb peacefully. Here’s why: Imagine that while the bulk of North Korea suffers, you’re among the Supreme Leader’s lackeys, kicking back with expensive whiskey, Swiss ski trips, and karaoke parties in your Pyongyang lair.

If the nation slides toward chaos, you’ll have a vested interest in protecting the system.

Your other choice? Surrender and face trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity. The United Nations, after all, isn’t happy about those slave labor camps.

With nothing to lose, the North Korean ruling elite would likely take up arms in a bloody civil war or a coup d’etat. “A military coup by some or all of the armed forces, perhaps causing fissures within the military, seems to me more likely than a popular uprising,” says Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.



............................SNIP"

[Agschmid]

1. Or not...

A North Korean collapse would likely be terrifying. As RAND suggests, it would be prudent to prepare for crisis. But it’s not entirely clear that Kim Jong Un won’t be ruling many years into the future. In fact, just after the RAND report was published, the World Bank declared that North Korea’s government has become more stable in recent years.

Good read, thanks for posting!

[TheMightyFavog]

2. If it happens, you thought Germany took an economic hit...

to bring the former East Germany up to 1990s Western European standards... Imagine how much it would cost South Korea to bring North Korea into the 21st Century.

[applegrove]

3. Yes and think how much better those North Korean lives would

be immediately if they weren't in slave labour camps or starving. It would be a worldwide effort to help those people as long as there was peace. And their lives, though by no means middle class lives for more than a generation, would not be filled with so much suffering. I'm sure the Germans are the better for having worked so hard at reintegration. Their economy is doing great now for Europe. And they've learnt an awful lot no doubt, when you do when things aren't perfect.

[JI7]

6. i'm sure that is something they are planning now to avoid, plus i think there is more of a personal

family type relationship between the north and south koreans.

i'm wondering about the things which will be exposed. how bad things were. and how it could be even worse than what we already know.

[jsr]

4. The civilians are probably too weak to walk or ride their bicyles very far

to join any mass uprising.

[Rex]

5. That is one hellhole that needs saving.

We justify our wars based on brand X. NK is a horrible place that is long past due on dictator rule. Same can be said for half the planet.