Shutdown Would Shave U.S. Growth as Much as 1.4 Pctg. Points in Q4
By Jeanna Smialek and Ian Katz - Sep 27, 2013
A shutdown of the U.S. government would reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points depending on its length, economists say, as government workers from park rangers to telephone receptionists are furloughed.
Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics Inc. estimates a three-to-four week shutdown would cut growth by 1.4 points. Zandi projects a 2.5 percent annualized pace of fourth-quarter growth without a shutdown. A two-week shutdown starting Oct. 1 could cut growth by 0.3 percentage point to a 2.3 percent rate, according to St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.
A shutdown would slow the expansion because output lost when workers are furloughed subtracts from gross domestic product. The combined prospect of a budget standoff between the White House and Congress and haggling over the debt ceiling could have a bigger impact on the economy as businesses hold off on investment and households delay spending.
“What we have is a political and not economic maelstrom,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook Group LLC in Princeton, New Jersey. “What everyone is watching right now is if the uncertainty is affecting consumer and business psychology, that they are postponing spending until they get more clarity about what’s going to happen in Washington.”
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/shutdown-would-shave-fourth-quarter-u-s-growth-as-much-as-1-4-.html
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