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dkf

(37,305 posts)
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 06:49 PM Sep 2013

Larry Sabato says vast majority of R house seats are completely safe.

The only risk is a primary if they aren't conservative enough.

Unless things get so bad that many many individuals feel the impact, there is no downside for house Rs.

That is scary.

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
 

villager

(26,001 posts)
2. "vast majority" doesn't matter, and is a given. The question is swing seats...
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 06:52 PM
Sep 2013

...and how many of those are in play.... or could be...

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
6. He also predicted that Republicans would take the Senate in 2012.
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 06:56 PM
Sep 2013

What the hell is the point of this right now?

Is he trying to justify them being terrorists?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
13. Senate GOP Poised to Win 4-Seat Majority
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:25 PM
Sep 2013
Senate GOP Poised to Win 4-Seat Majority

Senate Republicans are looking strong going into the 2012 election, poised to pick up enough states to create a four-seat majority and possibly a filibuster-proof lead if the eventual GOP presidential nominee routs President Obama, according to party leaders and a new election analysis.

"Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It's just a basic matter of numbers," says Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia political analyst, in a new report.

- more -

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/06/23/senate-gop-poised-to-win-4-seat-majority

Response to ProSense (Reply #13)

 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
11. Not according to this Wiki.
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:15 PM
Sep 2013
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[17] The projection was similar to the actual results, but Crystal Ball under-estimated Obama's number of electoral votes (332) and under-estimated Democratic victories in both the Senate (Democrats picked up two seats) and in the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato#Predictions


I don't think he meant to hurt your feelings.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
14. Around the same time in the cycle:
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:30 PM
Sep 2013
Is the Senate the Republicans’ To Lose?
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kdk2011090101/

Seat predicted Republican that went Democratic.

Lugar, Brown (MA), Snowe.

Oh, and thank you MA and ME.

Senator Bashes House Republicans: ‘They Hate Government. They Don’t Want Government To Work.’ http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023743940

Response to ProSense (Reply #14)

Xipe Totec

(43,854 posts)
8. Let's see what that crystal ball says next week
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:07 PM
Sep 2013

Once he pulls it out of his ass and wipes it clean.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
12. Short-term yes. Long-term demographics say eventually they will need to adapt
Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:17 PM
Sep 2013

or they will perish.

They are chained to their base, with no chance to evolve.

It keeps them alive for now, but eventually will kill them.

kydo

(2,679 posts)
18. what if enough normal people
Tue Oct 1, 2013, 06:31 AM
Oct 2013

moved into these gerry rigged districts? Could rational sane people (um most Dems) beat the crazy in these ahem so called safe "seats"?

Also one other question, lets say the US is sick of the brats and their stealing and The Feds decide to run all Federal Elections, (which it could according to our laws), can it draw the districts lines for that? I don't care if the states still have the rigged districts as that would only effect the state gov. I am talking the Federal Government determining the districts for the House in the US Congress.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
19. The 'Feds' can't simply 'decide' to run all elections. The States run elections and that's
Tue Oct 1, 2013, 06:57 AM
Oct 2013

all in the Constitution.

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