Crimea set to vote on joining the Russia federation OH BOY!!

[bigdarryl]

This is only going to make matters worst. http://rt.com/news/crimea-referendum-status-ukraine-154/

[reformist2]

1. And the vote is in 10 days... Talk about forcing the US/EU's hand.

[bigdarryl]

2. No shit

And I'm willing to bet Putins overall plan is to annex the whole country of Ukraine.And if that happens the cold war is back

[Democracyinkind]

6. I'm willing to bet against that. Time will prove one of us wrong. nt

[morningfog]

5. The US has no hand here.

What would you propose the US do? Stop the vote?

[Adrahil]

10. Political isolation and sanctions.

If Russia does this, some reaction from the west is a must. Or Eastern Ukraine is next...

[morningfog]

12. Assuming this vote goes through, what then?

Sanctions until the vote is reversed? Until Russia just gives it up? It's never going to happen. Sanctions would only hurt the people of Russia. Especially if they go on for years. Europe and China can't afford meaningful sanctions anyway.

The US has no hand here except to stomp its feet.

[Adrahil]

13. And your suggestion is... do nothing?

I get that we don't have a strong hand to play here, but what we DO have, we have to play. And Ukraine will be joining NATO in short order, I think.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. It won't make matters worse. It will accomplish the legal fiction Russia needs to complete

the take over of Crimea. With a facade of legality the crisis will just fade away.

[morningfog]

4. Exactly. This will become the new normal. Crimea will be part of Russia

and the heat will cool off.

[pampango]

8. If that happens it will remove a large segment of the pro-Russia, anti-EU vote from the Ukrainian

electorate.

Putin may indeed accomplish the reunification of Crimea with Russia which will be popular in Russia and make him a hero. Military conquests are what he seems to do best. OTOH, it may the removal of Crimea from Ukraine may make the remaining Ukraine more pro-EU and pro-NATO.

In a way, Putin may win Crimea and lose Ukraine. He may be satisfied with that, but it is a significant tradeoff that he will have to at least consider. (Of course, this assumes that he isn't coming back for the rest of Ukraine in the near future.)

[Warren Stupidity]

9. I suspect that if all goes as planned the Donetsk region will follow Crimea.

That will leave a "western facing Ukraine" stripped of its important assets.

[1awake]

7. Worse? I suppose that will depend on your point of view.

Crimea was Putin's intentions. I think he wouldn't mind all of Ukraine, but his main goal has always been Crimea. He has fictionalized legal standards behind his actions which will cause the debate to focus on those while he takes it. This was always going to be the most likely outcome, and while Ukraine will not want to except it, it will slowly defuse the situation. Russia will be hit with some penalties/sanctions... their standing will be diminished economically and politically for several years, but that's about it.

[pampango]

11. "Tatar opposition leader Rifat Shubarov says Crimeans should boycott referendum on whether to join

Russia as it has no base in law."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-crimea-eu-un-live

I suppose there is not much mystery on how this referendum will turn out, but a boycott by opponents of unification with Russia would put the pro-Russia vote in the high 90% range.