Crimea’s Case for Leaving Ukraine

[newthinking]

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/09-7

Virtually everyone in Official Washington is condemning Russian “aggression” in Ukraine and demanding a belligerent U.S. response to Crimea’s desire to secede and join Russia, as a new Cold War hysteria grips U.S. pols and pundits

by Robert Parry

If you were living in Crimea, would you prefer to remain part of Ukraine with its coup-installed government – with neo-Nazis running four ministries including the Ministry of Defense – or would you want to become part of Russia, which has had ties to Crimea going back to Catherine the Great in the 1700s?

Granted, it’s not the greatest choice in the world, but it’s the practical one facing you. For all its faults, Russia has a functioning economy while Ukraine really doesn’t. Russia surely has its share of political and financial corruption but some of that has been brought under control.

Not so in Ukraine where a moveable feast of some 10 “oligarchs” mostly runs the show in shifting alliances, buying up media outlets and politicians, while the vast majority of the population faces a bleak future, which now includes more European-demanded “austerity,” i.e. slashed pensions and further reductions in already sparse social services.

Continued:
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/09-7

[bemildred]

1. Now you've done it.

[hobbit709]

2. Have you asked the Tatars how they feel about this?

[Bluenorthwest]

3. They are Muslim and so they don't count. Might as well be gay.

nt

[newthinking]

4. For the record -

I would rather see an autonomous Crimea aligned with Europe than Russia. But due to the way the government of Ukraine was overthrown and how everyone has dug in and won't step out of their narrative it seems pretty certain that will determine the outcome.

What I am in favor of is not having a civil war. It looks rather interesting to see one from our nice chairs outside the country, but it really is rather terrible for everyone there, including the Tatars. And I don't see anything changing until we stop misrepresenting the point of view of half the population in Ukraine.

[Igel]

11. I don't know that we know the point of view of most of the population.

But we keep hearing "half."

77% of the population was ethnic Ukrainian in 2001.

67% of the population claims Ukrainian as its first language. 30% claims Russian--as of the 2001 census, at least. And while the Russian population has a slightly higher fertility, the younger population, those born since 1990 or so, tend to identify as more strongly Ukrainian by citizenship. It remains to be seen if Russia's managed to disabuse them of the idea that citizenship matters and reinstill in them the idea that ethnicity trumps all.

The real issue isn't where Crimea wants to be. They decided this once. The issue isn't if Ukraine wants to have a fascist government. The western parts also decided that once, sort of.

The issue is whether anything the Crimea population does will be a reasonable reflection of their opinion. 30-40k Russian soldiers or at least self-appointed gun-toting pro-annexation militiamen having made sure a rump legislature appointed a minor figure just because he wanted to be part of Russia, city councils that now regard the "referendum" as a vote for confirmation of their decision to secede and join Russia, the control of the electoral rolls by an electoral commission that is openly hostile to Ukraine and welcoming of Russia, the bribes to pour in money if the vote goes Russia's way and the implicit threat if it doesn't go Russia's way all seem to say, "This election will be less free than the previous." Toss in that every Ukrainian media channel is replaced a Russian one, Internet's blocked, it means that the population will be fed a diet of how horrible it is for Russians in Ukraine. The one final factor is fear: Not of retribution locally, but of staying part of Ukraine. Russia's going to beat up on Ukraine and make Ukraine suffer in horrible ways, economically, militarily, socially. It's going to make the Monroe Doctrine look like Mardi Gras.

We're not going to know the real opinion of the Crimeans. But Putin already knows it, to the extent he cares. And if the vote goes for annexation, a lot of other people will find it convenient to believe that's the true opinion of the people. Many have already decided that it'll be a clean count and fair election. It has to be. Otherwise there's a clash with their values.

Meanwhile, on the "continent" in a couple of months people will vote without the military, odds are, in the street. The fascists that are in power--as well as the non-fascists in power (we forget about the 14-15 ministries that aren't run by members of a party that also houses fascists)--will have an aura of victory for Ukrainians and of ... what, exactly, for the Russians, I don't know. That'll be a more accurate snapshot, if the rolls are kept clean and the counting is fair.

[dipsydoodle]

5. I would assume they'll vote same a everyone else entitled to vote.

[Catherina]

6. Auto rec for Robert Parry n/t

[OilemFirchen]

10. Train wreck for Robert Parry n/t

[ProSense]

7. More

If what’s left of Ukraine wants to join the European Union — and if the EU would want it — then those Ukrainians could vote for their future, too.

Democracy means little if populations are compelled to remain part of an undemocratic regime that has seized power in the capital by force and demonstrates hostility toward outlying regions. Since such a predicament now exists in Ukraine, the best-imperfect solution could be to dispatch international observers to Crimea to monitor the plebiscite and verify whether the popular vote fairly reflects the people’s will.

...fantasy from Parry. Here he's pretending that a vote at gunpoint is going to be valid. Also, after going on and on about U.S. hypocrisy and BS about why Ukrainians should prefer Russia, he ends with "dispatch international observers." I mean, is he dealing with reality?

Russia is attacking journalists, taking over institutions and blocking international monitors, and Parry seems oblivious to this.

Ukraine: Human rights monitors urgently needed as journalists and activists face wave of attacks in Crimea

With journalists, activists and peaceful protestors facing increasing harassment and intimidation in Crimea, there is an urgent need for a strong international monitoring mission in Ukraine, said Amnesty International...calling for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to urgently establish a strong international monitoring mission in the country.

“Attempting to monitor the human rights situation in Crimea has become a near impossible task. Self-styled Crimean self-defence groups are harassing pro-Ukrainian protesters, journalists and human rights monitors with complete impunity,” said John Dalhuisen, Europe and Central Asia Director at Amnesty International.

<...>

“The OSCE must quickly establish a strong monitoring mission and enjoy unimpeded access to all parts of Ukraine – including Crimea, which remains on a knife edge and where tensions are still high. Russia should welcome, not block this initiative,” said John Dalhuisen.

Peaceful protesters who attempt to express their support for the unity of Ukraine and opposition to Russian military presence in the Crimean peninsula face intimidation from pro-Russian activists.

- more -

http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/news-item/ukraine-human-rights-monitors-urgently-needed-as-journalists-and-activists-face-wave-of-attacks-in-c

With Journalists Under Attack, Crimea Faces ‘Information Crisis’ Ahead Of National Referendum
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024630765

Russia: Freedom of expression falls victim to the dramatic events in Ukraine’s Crimea
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/russia-freedom-expression-falls-victim-dramatic-events-ukraine-s-crimea-2014-03-03

Merkel tells Putin Crimea referendum illegal
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024635628

[dipsydoodle]

9. Chances of Ukraine joining the EU I'd say are pretty much nil

at least for the foreseeable future. If many were to try to migrate to the EU meanwhile would probably reduce the chances even further.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. I'm so very much looking forward to what happens in this thread