Malaysia Jet - Which Theory Seems Most Likely to You?

[OmahaBlueDog]

(No wrong answers here. Just wondering what seems likely to everyone)

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/six-theories-four-last-words-missing-jet-numbers-n55001

Number of theories under investigation — but so far unsubstantiated:

•The plane landed somewhere, for reasons unknown, and isn't able to communicate with the outside world. Experts say that's technically possible but almost unimaginable.
•A "sudden catastrophic event," like mechanical failure or decompression, as when a plane carrying golfer Payne Stewart crashed in 1999.
•Hijacking or terrorism: No credible group is known to have claimed responsibility for the plane's disappearance.
•Crew sabotage — including pilot suicide, for example.
•Pilot error. This is considered unlikely, as both pilots were very experienced.
•"Outside human intervention," such as bad weather or a meteor strike.

5 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	The plane landed somewhere, for reasons unknown, and isn't able to communicate with the outside world
	1 (20%)
	A "sudden catastrophic event," like mechanical failure or decompression, as when a plane carrying golfer Payne Stewart crashed in 1999.
	0 (0%)
	Hijacking or terrorism
	4 (80%)
	Crew sabotage — including pilot suicide, for example.
	0 (0%)
	Pilot error.
	0 (0%)
	"Outside human intervention," such as bad weather or a meteor strike.
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[brooklynboy49]

1. Call me Sgt. Schultz

I know nothing about matters such as these and have no basis for making anything remotely resembling an educated guess, so I'm gonna take a pass.

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Me too. Speculation is a fascinating waste of time accomplishing nothing.

[OmahaBlueDog]

4. You know what else is a waste of time accomplishing nothing? Political blogging

..yet we're all here doing it.

[TreasonousBastard]

5. I'd say that's a slightly less waste of time...

we often learn from the political stuff, but there's nothing much to learn from speculation.

Having said that, I really, really hope it was aliens-- be a change from the usual tragedies.

[OmahaBlueDog]

15. The Langoliers

Most of the passengers on an airplane disappear, and the remainder land the plane in a mysteriously barren airport.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112040/

[OmahaBlueDog]

3. There are no good answers, so I understand

If we are to believe the press, the turning off of the plane's communications systems and the rerouting were conscious, affirmative acts. Put another way, they weren't accidental.

Did one crewman overpower another in a crazed suicide mission? It seems unlikely both crew members were in a suicide pact.

Was the plane flown to a terrorist base? It seems unlikely it wouldn't have been seen on somebody's satellite by now. There are only so many places with hangars capable of hiding that plane. In any event, it seems like something out of fiction. Then again, so did 9-11.

Ransoming? Wouldn't we have heard by now?

Failure to pressurize? People do odd stuff when deprived of oxygen, but turn off the communications and reroute the plane?

Landed in the middle of the Gobi Desert? Maybe, but again -- wouldn't it have shown up by now on somebody's satellite?

My theory is that if it was flown to Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan, the CIA and NSA probably know and are keeping their mouths shut to avoid revealing sources and methods.

[Live and Learn]

7. Best one I have read yet.

I find it unbelievable that nobody knows especially since it seems increasingly likely the NSA knows what I ate for breakfast this morning.

Why did it take so long for them to tell us the truth about the satellite hits and the shut off of normal communication systems? Surely they must have been able to determine this almost immediately.

No idea, what happened or why but also doubt that I will ever believe what they eventually say happened. Something here stinks.

[Art_from_Ark]

12. If the original goal had been ransoming,

and the plane crashed (say, in the Himalayas) en route to its unauthorized destination, then there would be no ransom demand.

[ellisonz]

6. Pilot suicide, domestic terrorism.

[mnhtnbb]

8. Two theories seem most plausible

but really only one holds up.

1) sudden mechanical failure or on-board medical emergency could have caused
the change in flight pattern, but why no SOS and why turn off tracking devices?

2) hijacking for unknown reason seems most reasonable--explains the turning
off of communications and change in flight pattern.

We just don't know how it ended and whether it was successfully landed somewhere
or crashed and will never be found.

[OmahaBlueDog]

16. Re: Mechanical Failure. This article from "Wired" is interesting

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet

compete article at: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

[Lex]

19. Not sure ALL tracking devices would have to be turned off

for this scenario, though.

[mnhtnbb]

23. But if this is what happened, then the plane burned up and crashed.

So where is it?

[JVS]

9. North Korea hacked into it remotely and stole it.

The officials won't let us know though because people would lose their fucking shit if they knew that every flight in the general area runs the risk of being stolen and rerouted to Pyongyang. The reason that this kind of thing never happened before is that Kim Jon Il was afraid of flying and always traveled by train. Now Kim Jong Un needs a personal aircraft.

[OmahaBlueDog]

17. The scary thing is that that is only slightly more far-fetched than other viable theories

The theft-and-landing theories are right out of a Tom Clancy novel or a James Bond movie. And let's face it, Kim Jong Un is a villain right out of a Tom Clancy novel or a James Bond movie, so it all works.

[randome]

10. .

[hr][font color="blue"][center]"There is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in."
Leonard Cohen, Anthem (1992)[/center][/font][hr]

[PATRICK]

11. If the info is reliable

then hijacking for ransom, a very big ransom and a very skillful plan. All the other theories have huge holes or absurdities that do not match the method of the disappearance.

A thorough profile of the crew should reveal something about motive. A pilot is not a skillful ransom artist nor can he manage the plane all by himself so I am assuming a team. The governments are releasing a teasing "process of elimination" survey of the passengers and crew on top of sophisticated clues that this was a skillful hijacking. Is there a psychological component to this befuddled chaos attempting to work on the criminals? It is easier to understand a hijacker than the deliberate mess they left the region with.

The one drawback is getting away with it. Has that stopped other pro attempts in the past? Other theories have much greater objections.

Any professional law enforcement people out there who would venture a guess when and how a ransom should be demanded, granted that this seems an unprecedented case?

If these are all the options so far then I still like mine. Yeah, and next week I'll give you the Mega Millions numbers.

[Orrex]

13. I won't know what to think until Courtney Love weighs in.

[Iggo]

14. Crashed into water or ground. Don't know why.

[gvstn]

20. When did pilot suicide become a real thing?

I never heard of this theory before 9/11 and now we have at least two crashes that were determined to be pilot suicide. Most suicidal people don't want to kill 200+ random people. I find it disturbing that "pilot suicide" gets bandied about like a plausible explanation so often over a 10 year period.

Edit: Sorry, wasn't intended to be a reply to your post.

[closeupready]

18. Botched hijacking.

[OmahaBlueDog]

21. That makes sense at a certain level

..or maybe it was a successful hijacking.

[closeupready]

22. I think the plane is somewhere in the ocean, US authorities know exactly where,

but they likely don't want to reveal the location because they want to salvage as much of it as they can for investigation. Just my sheer uninformed speculation.

[flamingdem]

24. The investigation is moving away from pilot involvement

These guys check out with flying colors. I heard an interview with the friend of the captain and believed it when he said this was a great guy. Plus, if there was something found in the house that would have added to this theory, at least so far seems there hasn't been anything found.