Serious question: Are we seeing the build-up to another war - perhaps a "World War"?

[ChisolmTrailDem]

Looks like the laughing and bluster (with a nod to Prosense here and here) that was occuring on Twitter yesterday has ended, with Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's deputy prime minister, followed today by the not so bluster-y change of tune by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to U.S. Sec. of State John Kerry that Western sanctions are "unacceptable".

There is also the news that a Ukrainian soldier has been killed in Crimea: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024685422

Putin is also said to be ratcheting up the rhetoric re: the sanctions (see above links). If he continues to tighten his grip on Crimea, and sanctions piss him off enough, and combined with an enemy state in Kiev, this may compel him to move on other parts of Ukraine. Then what?

There's also the matter of a G-7 meeting being planned that excludes Russia.

I don't like how all this is looking right now. Could we be seeing the seeds of a new war, possibly a big war?

[unblock]

1. no. next question?

[MNBrewer]

3. Agreed

[ChisolmTrailDem]

4. Good. Thank you. nt

[geek tragedy]

2. no, it's just a part of the realignment. Europe, Japan, North America

and NZ/Aus are generally in alignment, with China, Russia, and India becoming more of a regional bloc.

Nobody is going to war, but political and economic alliances are shifting. Russia will begin selling more and more of its energy to China instead of Europe, etc.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

5. Sounds plausible. Hope that's all there is to it. We've got our cable networks already putting

military guys on the air, just like the lead-up to Iraq.

You also have the NeoCons front and center again.

You got John McCain calling to arm Ukraine.

Hopefully their fan-flaming won't result in fire.

[jwirr]

28. I read Emmanuel Todd's book "After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order".

This author tells us that after the Berlin wall fell and the USSR ended the world started to break up into regional powers. China, EU/Russia, the middle east, south America, and that left us and Canada kind setting over here alone.

It has been a long time since I read this and some of what I write may not be the exact plot but I do remember that Russia and EU were connected because of the oil connection.

When this started that is what I was thinking about.

[okaawhatever]

6. That depends on what Putin's longer term plans are. The way he's pissed of a lot of Ukraine they're

more likely than ever to want offensive as well as defensive weapons. How will that play out?

[ChisolmTrailDem]

7. McCain and Kristol (and other NeoCons) are suddenly out of the woodwork again, beating war drums. nt

[okaawhatever]

9. I don't pay any attention to that. I'm more concerned with what reasonable people are saying. nt

[ChisolmTrailDem]

19. I'm not implying they are reasonable. I'm pointing out that the same cast of characters is

emerging on our cable news networks using the same war drum beating rhetoric that led up to previous conflicts.

[okaawhatever]

25. I don't think this situation is anything like Iraq or Afghanistan. That's why I drown those guys out

and read/listen to moderate voices. I think a lot of people will dismiss Krystol and McCain. The real concern is what those opposed to action in Iraq have to say. (Or at least those who opposed once they knew the truth about Iraq).

There is a lot of intelligence info out there and those who are privy to it will see a bigger picture emerging. It's what that bigger picture tells us about the future that will dictate what we and other countries should do.

[cherokeeprogressive]

8. In a word: Nnnnnnope.

[FarCenter]

10. Not yet -- The next global war should not start until after 2030

The interval between Waterloo and the Guns of August was about 100 years. The previous interval was 1648 to 1789 an interval of 140 years. Although the interval between the end of the Chinese Revolution and the next global war should be shorter than the previous interval, I'd think 80 years would be about right.

The Ukraine thing is more like the Moroccan Crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Moroccan_Crisis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_cycles

[FarCenter]

26. Although, note that Putin will never be in a better position to go to war

Just like the Austrian and German General Staff, his assessment is probably that Russia would be falling behind the EU, not to mention China. The US is weakened by having shot its bolt in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Things are unlikely to get better for Russia, and they would be substantially worse without Crimea.

So he is faced with a "now or never" decision.

[EX500rider]

35. "The US is weakened by having shot its bolt in Iraq and Afghanistan"

?

I think you mean the US now has the most combat experienced troops on the planet with the latest in gear and could mow thru the Russians like a hot knife thru butter.

The 1 year Russian conscripts in vintage '70's Warsaw Pact gear would be blitzed.

[FarCenter]

40. A lot of the latest gear is in Afghanistan with no way out.

[AnalystInParadise]

43. No not even close

Most of of Conventional warfare gear, Tanks, Bradleys, Apaches, MLRS, M109 Howitzers, etc are not in Afghanistan they are sitting in their bases in Germany, Texas, Colorado and Georgia. But nice try. The Russian T-80 is a tin can next to an Abrams, hell not much better against the Bradley.

[HereSince1628]

29. But then there was 1918 to 1937, '39, 0r 42 depending on how you figure

There is no reason to believe history of world wars would be cycle,

[FarCenter]

38. 1914 to 1949 is more or less one continuous war

From 1917 through about 1922 there was significant war going on in eastern Europe between the White and Red Russian armies, between Poles and Ukrainians, and pogroms and ethnic conflict generally, as well as British and American Expeditionary forces in Russia. You could argue for a shorter interlude of peace between about 1923 and the start of the Chinese Civil war in 1927. In 1932 the Holodomor began in Ukraine. After that, the Spanish Civil War begins in 1936 and Japan invades China. It all wraps up with the war between the Kuomintang and the Chinese Red Army that lasts until 1949.

[HereSince1628]

41. I suppose that's arguable

and it isn't an area where I have any expertise.

[bigdarryl]

11. If you watched Rachel Maddows show you

Would see how this could end up in a war.Its about Oil and gas bottom line

[ChisolmTrailDem]

17. Exactly, it's about oil and gas. I catch Rachel when I can. I will go see what I can dig up. nt

[seveneyes]

12. Not until resouce shortages make military powers desperate

The IM wars are enough for now.

[TwilightGardener]

13. Kiev isn't an "enemy state" to Russia--they would most likely want to have

at least peaceful relations with Russia--even if Ukraine is part of the EU.

[Democracyinkind]

14. No. Not even close. nt

[ucrdem]

15. It's always a danger

because war is always profitable to what used to be called the capitalist class. Now I guess we'd call them investors. Neocons would also like to get their war on in Crimea as a prelude to Syria as a prelude to the big Kahunah, Iran.

So, yes, it could happen, easily. So far we've had good leadership from the BO admin but they're under tremendous pressure and we can never take peace for granted. We came close in Syria and dodged a bullet but that doesn't mean it couldn't easily happen anywhere we've got proxy wars simmering and that's basically everywhere. I hope it doesn't.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. There is the very real potential

That we are walking very similar steps, not to Anshluss, and 1936-38, but the escalation that led to the First World War. Those who deny this even as a realm of possibility are, in my view, in deep denial.

Possibility so far does not translate to we are going to war by the way, but as actions and rethoric increase, that possibility also becomes more real. All it takes is a look at a few maps and knowledge of history to see the parallels.

[Douglas Carpenter]

18. no! Everyone knows that a war between Russia and America would simply be too costly

It simply is not doable. It is however in the perceived interest of the military industrial complexes of both Russia and the U.S. to ratchet up the sabre raddling rhetoric. Ultimately though even America's most bellicose war hawks know that it would not be possible to deploy enough conventional forces into that region without resorting to a nuclear exchange that would cost hundreds of millions of lives as well as the destruction of both nations and much of the world.

[HockeyMom]

22. Anyone over a certain age

has been there, done that, when it comes to Russia. We don't want our grandkids hiding in fear under desks like we did. NO WARS with Russia. Find a peaceful solution.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

24. Makes sense. Thank you. nt

[Nye Bevan]

20. Provided that Putin only grabs non-EU and non-NATO countries there will be no war.

Sanctions and tension yes. But no war.

[Gman]

21. Putin is being irrational

Their economy is not that great. They were done a favor by adding them to G-7 to make G-8. It's been little more than 20 years ago when they were paying people in toilet paper. They can't withstand serious sanctions.

But Putin always has the ace in the hole of nuclear weapons. That's why extreme caution is advised.

[HereSince1628]

33. A crummy economy that is blamed on someone else or unfairness might be a path to war

That was certainly part of the sentiment of the German people heading towards WW2.

I have no doubt that there are nationalist in the RF who feel their lives are less because the Soviet Union was broken into too many pieces and that a better future requires putting some of those pieces back together.

[Gman]

36. Very true

[Demo_Chris]

27. Nope. We aren't going to war over the Crimea. nt

[CFLDem]

30. Undeniably yes

but whether or not it becomes a shooting war is up to Putin.

[Bosonic]

31. Over to you, Secretary of State

Kerry likens Crimea 'fervor' to WWII build-up

Washington (AFP) - US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia Tuesday against any military incursion into eastern Ukraine and likened the "nationalistic fervor" fueled by the Crimea crisis to the build-up before World War II.

Any moves by Russia to march into eastern Ukraine "would be as egregious as any step that I can think of that would be taken by a country in today's world, particularly by a country like Russia, where so much is at stake," Kerry said.

"Now I hope we don't get there," he told a gathering of students at the State Department, adding it "would be just an enormous challenge to the global community and it would require a response that is commensurate with the level of that challenge."

The top US diplomat said he did not want to start laying out options for any US or global response to any Russian move into eastern Ukraine "until we measure where we are" after Moscow absorbed Crimea into the Russian Federation.

http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-likens-crimea-fervor-wwii-build-203840948.html

[hack89]

32. No - Russia doesn't have that kind of military power (I am assuming a non-nuclear war.) nt

[ananda]

34. I don't think so because it doesn't benefit the big corporations...

... as much as little wars for sovereignty over resources.

[Orsino]

37. In the game of economic and musical chairs, such wars are perhaps inevitable.

Depleted resources mean that old empires will cross borders to conquer.

The Russian/Crimean situation is a symptom, not a cause.

[AverageJoe90]

39. Not World War III, no.

The post-WWII dynamic changed a lot of things, many for good.

With that said, though, this definitely isn't looking all that good for Russia; Putin is becoming increasingly desperate to keep himself in office for as long as possible and this is just another distraction.

If anything at all, it looks like Russia may very well have to deal with it's very own version of Iraq. Which has reprecussions of it's own but wouldn't lead to a classical WW3 scenario under any plausible short-term circumstances(our invasion of Iraq, though being rather close to as unjustified as Putin's moves towards Crimea, and with resources being a primary motivation, didn't touch off the end of the world. This won't either); any student of history can see that.

[Rex]

42. No, not at this time.

EU will have to get involved in a land war as well as NATO...something I don't see ever happening.

[malaise]

44. FFS

PLueeeeeeeeeeeeeez!

[1000words]

45. Sorry, I lost interest after the "nod" to ProSense.

[fascisthunter]

46. I Hope Not. I have Plenty of Debt to Pay Off Still!