"Social security won’t be around long enough for me to collect it"

[n2doc]

by JOHN QUIGGIN

Salon has a couple of interesting articles about millennials. Tim Donovan focuses on the plight of young people without college education who are suffering the combined effects of long-term growth in inequality and the scarring that comes from entering the worst labor market in at least a generation1. Elias Isquith has a piece debunking Rand Paul’s prospects of pulling the millennial vote (I’ve seen a few of these lately, which may or may not mean anything), which includes the following observation

Despite the fact that a whopping 51 percent of millennials believe they’ll receive no Social Security benefits by the time they’re eligible, and despite the fact that 53 percent of millennials think government should focus spending on helping the young rather than the old, a remarkable 61 percent of young voters oppose cutting Social Security benefits in any way, full stop.

The idea that “Social security won’t be around long enough for me to collect it” is a hardy perennial, and thinking about it led me to the following observation:

It’s now possible for someone to have spent their entire working life believing that Social Security would not last long enough for them to receive it, and now to have retired and started collecting benefits. This belief has been prevalent at least since the early years of the Reagan Administration when it was pushed hard by David Stockman, and I’m going to date it to the first big “reform” of the system in 1977. Someone born in 1952, who entered the workforce in 1977 at the age of 25, would now be turning 62 and eligible to collect Social Security. I’m betting that, in 20 years time, when the 1952 cohort reaches their average life expectancy, having enjoyed their full entitlement to benefits (assuming no ‘grand bargain’ intervenes) that the belief will be just as prevalent…

http://crookedtimber.org/2014/03/23/social-security-wont-be-around-long-enough-for-me-to-collect-it/

[mike_c]

1. I certainly expressed this same sentiment when I was in my 20s, 30s, and maybe 40s....

Now that I'm almost 60 my tune has changed. Keep yer stinkin' hands off my Social Security!

[enough]

8. I too completely believed this back when I was young. I continued to believe it

until I hit 65 and realized that I could actually collect Social Security! We opted to take it late, both just hit 70, and are now still getting used to having the Social Security appear in our checking account once a month, like a miracle. Now I know how much it means, and I'm starting to pay attention to how we can make sure it's there for the next generations.

[hollysmom]

9. yep this is no new Idea. Just the same anti-SS propagannda

from the right wing - the birchers then.

Hence the 401K mostly rip offs, when I worked. I just saved like a bandit as I got older, specifically after 45 when I was divorced with the house instead of cash. But it is here, thankfully allowing me to spend a little money frivolously occasionally.

[NightWatcher]

2. You might be struck with a disability tomorrow and need SSDI

I was and started drawing from it at age 37, long before I had PLANNED on retiring. That's the funny thing about plans.

I hope for everyone's sake that it stays around for a long time.

[Kurovski]

6. When a 35 year old main provider dies and leaves a four and six-year-old

the checks help to keep them off the streets.

People should stop being made so stupid by repuke-speak. Honestly, it's just amazing how people are willing to be whipped by the top fucknuts with the biggest, most bull-shitty ideas in this country.

[Enthusiast]

19. "That's the funny thing about plans." Ain't it the truth!

[yeoman6987]

3. I am 45 and thought the same thing…..however,

My boss who is 62 and just retired after 40 years said that she thought the same thing throughout her working years. Don't sweat it because it will be there for you too. We always fear the unknown but in the end it is a waste of energy. Just keep you head held high and you will do great and be collecting that well deserved check in no time.

[badtoworse]

4. I have believed that for about 25 years and planned accordingly.

I should start collecting this summer or next and it will be gravy.

[BKH70041]

5. Helicopter Ben

You'll get it, just in cheaper dollars. So said Ben.

And he's right.

[L0oniX]

7. The question is ...if they really believe that then what are they doing to prepare right now?

My guess is ...nothing. Since many ..."maybe" up to 50% of those about to turn 62 have less than $1000 saved. So how much better will the millennials do? I don't hold out any hope for their financial discipline either.

[tabbycat31]

21. I don't believe that SS will be around for me

I personally believe that my parents' generation (boomers) are going to bankrupt everything then complain that their kids have a massive sense of entitlement (geez, I wish I could afford a full year's college tuition by waiting tables over the summer).

Have you looked at a millennial's student loan payments? Chances are they are MUCH higher than their elder's (if their elders had them at all). Have you looked at their salary? A college degree is needed for many $10/hour jobs. I have friends who's student loan payments are more than 50% of their take home pay.

The boomers are the last generation that is going to be able to retire as we know it. I personally think I'll drop dead before I even think about retirement.

[Zorra]

10. I hear this pretty often. nt

[TreasonousBastard]

11. And look how many pensions have gone up in smoke in that time...

while SS keeps rolling along.

[madville]

12. I can draw in 2040

It's impossible to know what will be going on in 26 years. The current SS Trustee projections have the trust fund being completely exhausted in 2033, before then legislative changes will have to occur or they project payments could continue at 75% of their current level.

The more immediate problem is that the SSDI trust fund will be depleted in 2016. At that point they either have to reduce benefits, increase revenue, and/or borrow from the OASDI trust fund as the law allows. If they let SSDI draw from the larger OASDI trust fund they estimate full fund depletion around 2027.

I think it will still be around, some changes will have to be made, they should start by raising the contribution cap of course.

[tiredtoo]

13. This has been pushed by the right wingers for years

My children in their 50s all think SS will be gone soon. I tell them to vote for and support candidates that are working to increase SS. They look at me somewhat dumbfounded. I then mention the 5 senators who have expressed this as a goal. Senators who now support making Security more generous include Merkley, Begich, Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, and Bernie Sanders.
We have to re-frame this discussion. Not SS is going broke but SS can be raised with just a few tweaks.

[Downwinder]

14. In my 30's I said,

"What do I need SS for, I have a good retirement program."

That good retirement program disappeared in a corporate bankruptcy.

Now that I am 73, I am sure glad that I have SS. They haven't missed a check.

[progressoid]

15. I expect to get SS but it won't be enough to live on.

Most of my retirement disappeared in 2000.

[2pooped2pop]

16. now days, it's more like we won't live long enough to collect it.

sad, but I believe that is the truth. Most of us will not live long enough to collect it.

[politicat]

17. I'm 38. I'm not confident I'll have SS, but I want it to stay & increase.

Mostly, it's self-defense. My grandmother, 76, relies on SS for a good chunk of her annual income. If she loses it, or it doesn't keep up with the cost of living, then I, or my 58 year old (widowed, retirement savings decimated through illness) mother will have to make up the gap. I don't have children (and they're damn unlikely now), so I don't have the "my kids are my safety net" option. Every penny I can save for my final years instead of spending now on my elders is 10 cents that society won't have to spend on me when I'm creaky.

The reason I'm skeptical about SS lasting another thirty is because for all of my working life, the GoOPers have been trying to dismantle it. They already killed pensions and have not allowed other savings instruments (like IRAs) to grow with inflation, nor do interest rates currently match inflation rates. The money I save today is worth less next year, and that's a problem. I've seen the Overton window shift on pensions; while SS's window is proving more obdurate, after twenty-plus years, people are wearing down on the idea of privatization. Which scares me into being frugal and careful.

But I don't mind seeing my SS deduction. I know it's being paid forward.

[Enthusiast]

18. This has been the objective of the right wing propaganda all along.

They keep telling young people that social security is unsound.

Social security is the MOST sound thing about our government. It has an independent funding mechanism, something that cannot be said for the military.

Social security is so sound that it is the largest creditor to the United States government.

If the government would fail to pay social security benefits it would amount to a government default.

Now we will have to hear what the paid lying Third Way defenders have to say.

Stop believing the paid liars.

[closeupready]

20. + A Bazzillion.

End of thread.

[raccoon]

22. I remember in 1975 hearing somebody say that. Speaker was born in 1945 and has been getting

Social Security for some years now.