Nate Silver got you down? Why his forecast is more nuanced than you think

[Capt. Obvious]

Nate Silver, the world’s only celebrity statistician, finally issued a 2014 forecast. According to Silver’s number crunching, the GOP is the “slight favorite” in November’s fight for control of the Senate, with a 60 percent likelihood of taking down the Democrats. As usually happens in the wake of a Silver prediction, everyone lost their damn minds.

Liberals and Democrats, who huddled around the warm light of Silver’s projections during the long darkness of October 2012, quickly lost faith in his methodology. Republicans and conservatives, who spent the latter stages of 2012 denouncing Silver as a hack propagandist, reported his latest projection with straight-faced earnestness. What once was “skewed” is now simply “math.”

What Silver has done is put a number to a widely acknowledged political reality: The GOP is well-positioned to make gains in 2014. The Atlantic’s David Graham points out that Democrats faced a similar reality in 2010, but refused to see it. “Party officials are more publicly upfront about the dangers the Democrats face this time around than they were in 2010, but knowing that peril is ahead is different from knowing how to stop it.” That rings true, and you know what does nothing to stop, slow or deflect an oncoming political wave? Complaining about skewed polls.

So what can be done? Last week I wrote about how Democrats would be smart to go on a carefully calibrated pro-Obamacare offensive – it won’t turn Obamacare into a winning issue, though it could help mollify the large swaths of voters who are frustrated by (but not ready to give up on) the health law. A good place to focus would be Obamacare’s expansion of Medicaid, the politics of which are increasingly favorable to the Democrats.

Salon

[TDale313]

1. Good article.

"As usually happens in the wake of a Silver prediction, everyone lost their damn minds."

Pretty much sums it up. There was actually nothing Nate Silver said that a) most of us paying attention didn't already know or that b) means we are doomed. We're facing a tough one, we need to get ready to fight for this one. We can do it, but denying reality won't help.

[okaawhatever]

2. K & R nt

[eallen]

3. The most important caveat is this: Those are the odds now, and things will change before November.

And things we do will help change them.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

4. Too late. Stick a fork in him, he's done...

[Gothmog]

5. This prediction is based on current information

A great deal can change between now and the November elections