"Predictions Are Stupid … But Russia Is About to Invade Ukraine"

[rumdude]

"Predicting world events is hard. It’s much easier to stay away from concrete predictions and instead stick to frightening hypotheticals, like 'Warmongering Aliens From a Distant Star Could Enslave Us All.' Discussing scary possibilities is fast and easy, while prediction — saying something is going to happen rather than merely bringing up the fact that it could — often leaves people looking foolish later on. And if there’s one thing any self-appointed authority hates, it’s looking like a moron in public.

But barring a major change in the next 24 hours or so, I think we might in theory be close to … ah, screw it. Russian troops are about to march on the rest of Ukraine, and I'm going to tell you what's making me so sure(ish)."

https://news.vice.com/articles/predictions-are-stupid-but-russia-is-about-to-invade-ukraine

[Benton D Struckcheon]

1. They wanna, but they won't. n/t

[rumdude]

2. I can't imagine that they'd do it either n/t

[AnalystInParadise]

17. I can't imagine they won't

Honestly, I have no idea who is advising the President, but it is obvious they know shit all about Russian psychology. I will truly be stunned if a year from now Ukraine still exists in its current territorial configuration. I say that as a 20 year Intelligence Analyst, I don't know everything nor will I claim to know everything, but my bailiwick was Russia, Central Asia and Iran when I was an analyst for the Army, and I am very confident in my beliefs about Russia's intentions. I am floored everyday when I see things the President is saying, not because I am blaming him for anything, but because whoever is advising him knows apparently next to nothing about Russia.

[Notafraidtoo]

37. I am with you, but not about the advice.

I think Russia will take advantage and take Ukraine, but what do you think we can possibly do to stop them? We are not going to start a war with Russia, and sanctions wont work because Europe relies on Russia too much, even if the sanctions did work Russia has no real incentive to stop, in the long run they will just make peace with a Europe that is more than willing to make peace with them, Russia has nothing to lose.


Going to war with Russia over the Ukraine is dumb, the best the US could do is a cold war and weak sanctions, we are just in a bad position on this one, with out Europe fully on our side ( behind the face politics it is not currently in their best interest to be) doing anything more is just stupid. Europe would be much better off with out the conflicts between the Ukraine and Russia messing up their fuel supply's, If one of the players is out of the picture they will be better off, it sucks but we all know everything is about business now, all the crap about saving people and giving freedom is lip service to suckers that believe it.

[Fred Sanders]

3. So Putin calling Obama to beg for a diplomatic solution just today and agreeing

to return military hardware seized in Crimea back to the Ukraine are just clever ploys being done because......because......?

You believe what you want to believe is the lesson, all evidence to the contrary be damned.

[okaawhatever]

5. Putin reaching out to Obama could also be a tactic to blame Obama for failing to stop the

assault from happening. Or to show that he tried a diplomatic solution and was left with no other choice than to invade. You see that with a lot of former communist/dictatorship/fascist countries. The Dear Leader from N Korea usually goes on a charm offensive before doing some evil military type crap.

[BlackAndBeyond]

6. Putin

Putin was simply returning a phone call. They've yet to meet and discuss, let alone agree anything.

[quinnox]

4. Doubt it. And even if they did, so what.

None of our business.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Read the whole thing

That said, if they did...closer to NATO states, in which case it will definitely be our business. This, will be the outrage and depending how far, our business as well.

[quinnox]

10. The way I see it is, anyone who is that concerned over defending Ukraine can go over there and

volunteer in the army, or be a part of the defending in some way. And I don't care how old they are. But don't ask Americans to die for Ukraine, unless they are willing to do so themselves.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. Ukrainians are enlisting left and right

But for sure the moment one Russian soldier steps into oh Poland, Rumania or Baltic states, article V of NATO will be invoked faster than you can say whiplash the we don't fight over there ended somewhere in the North Atlantic in 1942. It is not what any of us likes, it is what it is.

Blame FDR and Churchill for that one

[quinnox]

13. The only one of those I would consider as having a legitimate American interest is Poland.

I would hope Americans would not want to get involved with some of the other countries, most of them they have never heard of.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. This is how Americans learn geography

Paraphrasing Sam Clemmens.

Anyhow, any NATO member state is breached, it matters little what you think. Interlocking alliances are what they are.

And it matters little what I think either. It is what it is.

[AnalystInParadise]

18. No Russian soldier is going to set foot in NATO

Not going to happen. It is ludicrous that serious rational people believe that.....Now Ukraine, Belarus, the Stans and the Cacausus? Yeah they are screwed

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. And explaining what will trigger article V is not irrational.

But you knew that. Most Americans do not know that. Or understand it.

As to Belarus, not that damn sure.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49119.htm

Not full members, but.

[AnalystInParadise]

22. Nadin

For the love of Christ, here we go again. Outline a scenario, any scenario that makes sense where Putin sends soldiers into a NATO country. It is not going to happen, just like China will NEVER invade Taiwan. Will China invade other countries? Yep. Will Russia invade non Nato countries? Yep. There are very easy, very analytically sound paths to reach those goals. I have to see anyone show me the same for Russia invading a NATO country. Republicans will win a majority in California before Russia goes to war with NATO.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. For the love of god, *I am stating a fact*

If a NATO member state is breached article five will be invoked. Go argue on that precise point with the Vice President of the United States. he made that exact point in a speech not too long ago in Vilnus, to be exact.

This is not about possible scenario, this is a fact, in hard core policy going back almost sixty years. And this is a fact most Americans do not understand. Nor do they understand article V was invoked for the first time after Sept 11. I am proof positive buildings getting dropped in NYC by terrorist using passenger aircraft was part of the many scenarios you played with.

Plan Black and Plan Orange were really never implemented either.

You seem to have an issue with explaining to people what would trigger this.

Oh and Poland is currently calling reserves.

[AnalystInParadise]

26. No one is debating Article V

We are debating whether or not Russia would ever go into a NATO country, if they do that, of course we would invoke Article V, but you can NEVER and I mean NEVER give me a scenario where that COULD happen........ You always, ALWAYS speculate and you never back it up with anything resembling factual information. Poland is not calling up reserves. That is freaking hearsay from a third person source. BELIEVE ME, they are not doing that now. We are tracking the region as our mission at 1AD here at Bliss, our RAF (Regionally Aligned Focus) is Eurasia. I sit in on three times a week briefings on this mess, including one today. If Poland was in fact calling up reserves it would be Open Source news.....Open Source means it would be available at several outlets, not some bullshit blog. NATO would be scheduling a meeting right damn now if a member state was calling up its reserves. Fuck, I am so sick of this bullcrap. I call bullshit on this and your assertion in general. In the beginning, I tried to be cool with it, but you are spreading your own BS and calling it facts in some attempt to spread disinformation. In all my time lurking here I have never been able to figure out why you spread so much disinformation. It boggles the mind.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. I am pointing out what will happen if they do

Not how.

Two very different things.

[AnalystInParadise]

29. Ok then

I apologize.

[Fred Sanders]

19. Except no NATO member is being threatened with invasion.

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. But Poland *is* mobilizing

I find that not quite curious, more like expected, but...

[AnalystInParadise]

30. Poland is not mobilizing

Find me one source......just one that is not some third person perspective BS. If they start mobilizing, it would be front page news. it would not only be known by some blogger. The Poles as of the last open source briefing I attended want more troops from NATO in their country, they are not now, nor anytime soon planning on mobilizing reserves. If Ukraine is invaded, I would expect that to change, but I am waiting for one open source to confirm this. Haven't seen one yet.

[AnalystInParadise]

32. If you post that Crispin Black bullshit

I will freaking scream. That is not a source, that is speculation.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Nope, European sources

Including forward deploying of us forces as well. (AF)

That's ok. Poland even going to higher alert is like duh given their history. Punching bags since Kievan Russ.

[AnalystInParadise]

33. And if use Infowars as a source

I will mock you mercilessly.

A real journalist with real proof, not speculation, not opinion. Proof......I need to go to bed because I am about to lose it over this bullshit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Hey I use Debka for fiction

No serious, they are great for fiction.

Nah Reuters and BBC and the rest of the crew reporting the moving east of Assets.

[spanone]

7. the author is correct, predictions are stupid.

[Oilwellian]

24. I predict it will rain unicorns and ponies and sparkles and n/t

[okaawhatever]

8. This is the part that concerns me:

4. Propaganda
The information warfare being waged by Russia isn’t slowing down. Recently, Russia opened a hotline for Russians in Ukraine to call and report “ethnic cleansing” against Russian-speakers, further bolstering the case for protection of Russians in Ukraine. In his March 19 speech on the annexation of Crimea, Vladimir Putin spent a lot of time talking about how he views the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, no doubt in part to rile up Russians to get behind a potential invasion.

As I said in an earlier post, I hope the Putin call was sincere. I think Obama saying Ukraine wasn't looking to join NATO was a key point that would have calmed Putin down. I also know that Putin would call to give the false impression of attempting to solve this diplomatically. He will claim that he had to invade because a diplomatic solution couldn't be worked out due to the evil west and President Obama.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. His second, and third source is very close

And we know Poland has been mobilizing. Ok, this is better known in Europe. But seriously, he is not that far out on how people ferret that.

[okaawhatever]

14. Just living near a military base gives you a lot of information. I know your husband is navy, but

my Dad was AF and you can't ignore planes departing green ramp every fifteen minutes. After a couple of hours you know something is going on. The key for me was when one of the stories said the troops being amassed weren't the units you'd use for the exercise they claimed they were having. The fact that many of them were mechanized was another clue. I hope that Obama saying that Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO was what prompted Putin to call and maybe sort this out. The other side of that is Putin calling may have just been a ruse to allow him to later claim he tried to work it out diplomatically.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Correct

Why dependents are also told to shut up.

Hubby is a retired USN chief, sub service. They were the first unit after 911 off Pakistan, came home and turned right around for Iraqi freedom. Honolulu was empty when they left, with only one ship (in the shipyard) left.

[amandabeech]

25. Putin is occupying Crimea, but Crimea's utilities come from Ukraine

over the isthmus to Kherson province. This includes electricity, natural gas and potable water.

This week and last, Ukraine shut off power to some parts of Crimea, saying that it was having technical difficulties. Russia has been bringing in diesel electrical generators, presumably by sea, as well as the diesel to run them. However, diesel generation for the entire peninsula does not appear feasible.

As yet, Ukraine has not shut off the natural gas or the water supply.

But if Ukraine did, everyone in Crimea would suffer, and probably civilians most.

Russia plans to run pipelines under the Kerch Straight between eastern Crimea and the Russian mainland, but that will take some time.

Building a desalination plant to make sufficient fresh water for Crimea would also take a great deal of time.

Putin may very well feel "uncomfortable" relying on Ukraine to provide these utilities to Crimea, and could try to take as much Ukrainian territory as necessary to haul in water by truck or commandeer Ukrainian water and gas pipelines for supply to Crimea.

The above article discusses this problem at bit, but I think that it could end up tipping the scales for Putin and result in a further invasion of Ukraine.

[phil89]

28. Well, we invade any place we choose...

so what should we have to say about it? Why exactly is the US not still hanging its head in shame after Vietnam? The very idea that we should be weighing in on this is absurd. We have no credibility as a country when it comes to foreign invasion/aggression.

[sabrina 1]

36. Best post in the thread, thank you and welcome to DU.

[darkangel218]

31. Its not going to happen. nt