CBO: Obamacare will have lower premiums, insure more, and cost government less than projected

[ProSense]

CBO: Obamacare will have lower premiums, insure more, and cost government less than projected

by Joan McCarter

That whole "Obamacare is doomed to fail" line from Republicans is getting harder and harder to defend by the day. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office makes their protestations sound even more ridiculous. The top line finding:

Relative to their previous projections made in February 2014, CBO and JCT now estimate that the ACA’s coverage provisions will result in lower net costs to the federal government: The agencies currently project a net cost of $36 billion for 2014, $5 billion less than the previous projection for the year; and $1,383 billion for the 2015–2024 period, $104 billion less than the previous projections.

The other good news:

• Health insurance premiums are lower than CBO originally projected, saving the government $190 billion;
  
  
• "12 million more nonelderly people will have health insurance in 2014 than would have had it in the absence of the ACA;"
  
  
• The number of uninsured will fall to 30 million by 2017 and will remain there through 2024, absent other reforms;
  
  
• The projection made originally in 2012 that the ACA would reduce the deficit is still valid, and deficit reduction is greater than anticipated two years ago.

Additionally, they project that premiums will rise only "slightly" in 2015, by about $100 for the mid-level plans that have proven to be the most popular in the exchanges. They also say that those premium hikes will be caused more by increasing health care costs than the having more and sicker people—those with pre-existing conditions—now in the risk pool.

Lower premiums, 12 million more people insured, lower costs to the government and further deficit reduction. Try repealing all that, Republicans.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/14/1291947/-CBO-Obamacare-will-have-lower-premiums-insure-more-and-cost-government-less-than-nbsp-projected

Senator Sanders: Their Nightmare’
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024793244

[JoePhilly]

1. So Obama lied again!!!!!

[okaawhatever]

7. ROFL. Stop writing the Fox headlines, or was it already on there? nt

[JaneyVee]

14. Bush lied, millions died! Obama lied, millions survived!

[politicaljunkie41910]

24. Is it no surprise that the CBO releases it new estimates just after President Obama

names Silvia Burwell to replace Kathleen Sebelius as secretary of HHS? (Don't bother to ask whether this makes sense or not, I know Burwell is coming from OMB, not CBO. I'm just talking BS as I suspect the GOP will do to cast doubt on any good news related to the ACA, and deligitimize anything related to Obama.)

[Johonny]

36. +1

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

43. I hate it when somebody "makes my week" and it's only Tuesday...

Snort! Guffaw!

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. In honor of the latest ObamaScare stories. Off to the Greatest!

[Cali_Democrat]

3. Fuck facts and numbers.....BENGHAZI!!1!! nt

[alfredo]

4. Yes!

[Dopers_Greed]

5. B-b-b-b-b-but...

You really believe this? The CBO is "in the tank" for Obama.

[VWolf]

49. Yeah, that's the ticket!

Bunch of liberal pinko commie socialists!

[Fred Sanders]

6. Obamacare Cooks Republicans: New CBO Report

[randome]

8. Even if every bit is true, even if Republicans finally stop complaining about ACA...

...we should not stop pointing out how much they are against this. How often they tried to take health insurance away from people. How ungodly amounts of our money they burned for no good reason.

If Ted Cruz himself gets up on the Senate floor and says 'I love Obamacare!' Democrats should run on the issue as if he and his cohorts still oppose it.

Don't let up on them.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"[/center][/font][hr]

[BlancheSplanchnik]

50. so true!!!!

Please, dems, USE the dirt they give us.

Guess that means we need to donate where we can....MoveOn, for example......counter the puke ownership of media

[mcar]

9. And here in FL the pro-Scott forces continue to run anti ACA ads

Thinking they will beat Crist that way. Proceed, say I.

[Hoyt]

10. I bet. Here in Ga a few candidates for US Senator are pledging to quit if they can't abolish ACA.

[Rex]

11. And the GOPs reply?

[NewJeffCT]

19. Yep

and the news won't even be reported on Fox News, and never mentioned on Limbaugh.

[Rex]

32. Right, they will report just the opposite!

If Obama says it is a clear blue day outside, Fox and the Hate Radio Posse will say it is cloudy with rain and possible tornadoes! And of course (instead of checking outside by looking out the window) their audience will believe them.

[underpants]

26. Spot on

[JaneyVee]

12. IMPEACH! TYRANNY! BENGHAZZZZzzzzzzzz

[randome]

15. You forgot something.

He's only been successful in domestic policy, fiscal matters and foreign relations because...he's black.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]There is nothing you can't do if you put your mind to it.
Nothing.[/center][/font][hr]

[libodem]

23. You haven't posted in 90 days

And you got on here to post this ignorant diatribe of nonsense. You may have forgotten your sarcasm tag but I'm still going to alert on your post. I find it scummy and repulsive. If you don't choose to delete you may want to edit in a sarcasm smilie.

Seeya.

[rafeh1]

37. sarcasm works better without smiley

[libodem]

39. Even the sarcastic

Can be sarcasm challenged. I'm a bitter cranky snot and I figure most people around here know me for it. But I have learned to add my tag. I've had the experience of being hidden for not using one. Not everyone can tell.

[Motown_Johnny]

16. Still 30 million uninsured.

Sorry to point out the one low spot here, but this is exactly why roughly 1/3 of those who disapprove of Obamacare (such as myself) do so because it is not liberal enough.


You can count me as one of the "Keep it and fix it" crowd.


For the 12 million non-elderly who have gained insurance, this is great news. For the 30 million who have not, much less so.


I am happy that the numbers are better than projected. Everyone who was paying attention expected this. I actually expect the real numbers to shake out even better than this. Remember that the CBO wrote off all preventative care as a total waste of money (my phrasing). Because they could not place a number on the amount of money preventative care would save, they went with zero. Preventative care will save money, it is just that we won't be able to estimate the value until after the money has been spent.



P.S. I stand by my previous prediction that (D)s will be running on the ACA by Labor Day. Once the 80/20 rule rebate checks start hitting mailboxes in July the narrative will have changed.

[bornskeptic]

21. Most people who remain uninsured will be in one of two categories.

(1) People who would be eligible for expanded Medicaid, but live in a state where Medicaid was not expanded.
(2) Undocumented immigrants who are not eligible for premium subsidies.
The 30 million number could be reduced drastically by more states deciding to accept Medicaid expansion or by immigration reform.
Other than those groups, those who remain uninsured will be mostly those who choose to do so.

[leftstreet]

27. or 3. Can't afford the premiums n/t

[ProSense]

34. The misinformation

Last edited Mon Apr 14, 2014, 07:39 PM - Edit history (1)

"Can't afford the premiums"

...is going to continue because everytime it's countered, it's soon forgotten. Here is a comment from a Daily Kos diary that was posted to another thread.

Sorry to hear about Opal's plight and it is a terrible shame that Texas did not expand Medicaid and that the SCOTUS threw out the part of the law that would've made it mandatory.

But I have a question: it appears that based on the facts you've given, Opal and her husband have a very low income. I gathered that from your suggestion that Opal might've qualified for Medicaid if Texas had expanded it, and the statement that Opal's husband made just enough to get help under the ACA, which would indicate he makes just above 133% of FPL ($15,521).

Yet if those facts are correct, Opal and her husband actually would've qualified for an enhanced silver plan that has a $500 deductible per individual that drugs aren't subject to, has no copay at all for generic medications, and a $50 copay for brand names. Also, the two lowest premiums could range from $6 to $28.

Again, assuming I have the facts right, Opal and her husband must've opted for the bronze plan with its $5000 deductible when they could've gotten a much better enhanced silver plan (which as I've detailed above has a $500 deductible with no drug deductible) for as low as $6 a month. Either they somehow didn't know about it or whoever signed them up screwed up in not advising them of this.

In helping folks sign up for Covered California, I've always made sure that middle-aged and/or chronically ill folks avoid the bronze plans, and if they're low income, made sure they're aware of the enhanced silver plans that are designed to have low or no deductibles, low copays, and low premiums to accommodate folks of low income. These plans are more generous in California than Texas, but Texas does still have them and, assuming I've got the facts right here, Opal was tragically not made aware of them as it might've saved her from this calamity.

Sorry again to hear about Opal. If you can, and if it applies, please advise her of the better options she may have available to her as I've tried to outline.

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1291854/53146506#c22

Anyone who doesn't qualify Medicaid after the expansion will be qualifed for additional subsidies available with a silver plan. In some cases, those plans reduce the deductible to zero.

Texas:

94% Cost Sharing Benefits Households with incomes between 138% to 150% of FPL qualify for the following cost sharing benefits for this silver plan.

Deductible (Individual) $0.00
Deductible (Family) $0.00
Out of Pocket Maximum (Individual) $500.00
Out of Pocket Maximum (Family) $1,500.00

http://www.valuepenguin.com/health-insurance/TX/blue-cross-blue-shield-blue-advantage-silver-hmo-004

[Doctor_J]

29. But we're lowering the deficit!!!

As if that should be a goal of health care.

Still 30m uninsured 15 years into the implementation. Doesn't really sound like "moving toward SP" to me.

And those like me with employer plans whose annuals went through the roof. But all of the Big Insurance bean counters got to keep their jobs. Just heartbreaking that Dems think this is the answer.

[DallasNE]

31. A Sizable Chunk Of That 30 Million

Would be covered by Medicaid expansion and I look for a number of those States that refused to have second thoughts and that alone will drive this number down by millions -- perhaps by another 5-6 million. The news going forward will be mostly good news. Not to be overlooked is the provision that says insurance must pay out in services 80% of the premium amounts they take in. And the free care providers were doing on behalf of the uninsured will result in lower charges to those paying. Indeed, I see no reason that insurance premiums won't have actual decreases and possibly as soon as 2015. Like VP Biden said, "this is a big f*ucking deal".

[ProSense]

38. That's based

"Still 30 million uninsured."

...on a larger number of uninsured.

The uninsured population is reduced from 57 million to 31 million. That’s 26 million more people insured.

The report shows 90 percent of the population insured, compared to 80 percent without Obamacare.

Of the nearly 31 million not insured, 9 million are undocumented immigrants, 2 million are in states that chose not to expand Medicaid, 6 million will be Medicaid eligible who chose not to enroll, and 14 million will be people who chose not to accept their employers plan.

These are estimates, and it’s important to note that about 20 million of those (the 6 million Medicaid eligible and 14 million with access to employer coverage) are voluntarily uninsured.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

44. Something to consider...

I read somewhere (I'll Google for a while to see if I can find it) that there's about 5 percent of Canadians who aren't insured. This may be a technicality, but apparently you have to activate your coverage somehow, and there's some number of Canadians who just don't do it.

Now if you get sick and show up in a Canadian hospital, it may just be that they automatically enroll you and it's a moot point. But on the books, it would appear that having 100% coverage -- particularly here in the U.S. -- will always be an impossible goal.

[Skip Intro]

17. I'm sorry, I have to ask - Did not Obama say premiums would go down $2500

for the typical family?

That was said frequently, by Obama and others, wasn't it?

[Doctor_J]

30. My annuals went up $8000

[ProSense]

35. The information

"I'm sorry, I have to ask - Did not Obama say premiums would go down $2500 for the typical family?

That was said frequently, by Obama and others, wasn't it?"

...indicates that it's a lot lower for most people.

<...>

So, taken together, what have we learned of late?

• ACA enrollment through exchanges reached 7.1 million, ahead of early estimates.
  
  
• The ACA is quickly reducing the uninsured rate.
  
  
• Thanks in part to the ACA, health care spending has slowed dramatically and health care inflation is at its lowest point in 50 years.
  
  
• According to the Department of Commerce, the ACA is also having a positive effect on personal incomes.
  
  
• And according to the CBO, the system is even more affordable than perviously projected.

- more -

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/cbo-affordable-care-act-getting-even

[Skip Intro]

41. Nothing in your post is about lower premiums - you don't address it at all.

[ProSense]

42. You can

"Nothing in your post is about lower premiums - you don't address it at all."

...say WTF all you want to. I mean, the OP is about the CBO report that shows premiums will be lower than expected. Health care costs grow every year. When growth is at the slowest pace in 50 years. That's a significant savings.

Still, even with that fact, premiums are lower than the status quo.

Most families/people are saving a lot more than $2,500 a year (the average subsidy is about $4,000). Premiums were nearly $12,000 per year for an individual plan. Millions of people are paying less than $100 per month. Million are paying nothing.

STUDY: Average Obamacare Plans Are Cheaper Than Employer-Sponsored Ones
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024415004

New York exceeds Obamacare enrollment expectations by 60 percent, premiums halved
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024822354


http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/17/news/economy/obamacare-health-insurance-new-york/

In fact, Obamacare isn't just lowering premiums, it's boosting incomes.

Obamacare boosting household income and spending
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024606074

Go ahead and complain about the links.

[rhett o rick]

48. What about the premiums for 85% of Americans that have insurance not thru the ACA?

Our premiums are going up substantially.

[MohRokTah]

18. And the GOP plan is to STILL run against Obamacare

They've insured one thing, though. They've insured that Barack Obama will forever be known in history as the president who reformed the health care system, opening the way to a true single payer system within a couple decades.

[lillypaddle]

20. K&R nt

[libodem]

22. God Bless America

[Liberal_in_LA]

25. kick

[DallasNE]

28. At The Time Of The February Report

I questioned the CBO projections thinking they represented an outliner and this kind of confirms that point.

I wonder what "absent other reforms" includes because I fully expect some of the States that opted out of Medicaid expansion will have a change of heart and that, without any additional reforms, will bring that number down considerably so I think CBO will be forced in future years to further revise their estimates and in a more favorable direction.

[Cha]

33. Good news about Obamacare.. sorry I'm Rec!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

40. ...but...but...BEN-GAHWZZZZY! WAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

[LiberalLarry5136]

45. OBAMA CARE WORKS

The affordable care act is working. The fact that over 7 million people have signed up for the benefits of the affordable care act indicates that the public desired this type of system. How can conservatives continue to cry out in protest that the Affordable Care act is going to fail when new reports from the Congressional Budget Office indicate that ACA’s coverage plans will result in lower overall costs to the federal government? Additionally, 12 million more people than expected will have lower premiums. If conservatives think that coming in under budget and insuring more people than expected is a failure, they seriously need to rethink their standards on healthcare.

[Warren Stupidity]

47. Obamacare officially renamed Affordable Care Act by CorpMedia.

Republicans take credit for steering their vision of healthcare through the mines and pitfalls of the socialist Kenyan muslim's administration's attempts to destroy this great Republican program.