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Thu Oct 23, 2014, 12:27 PM

If we win NC and New Hampshire, then we need 3 out of 9 of these in the Senate:

Kansas, Iowa, Ark, Georgia, Colorado, Kentucky, Alaska, Louisiana, South Dakota...... That's it. 3 out of 9.

Assuming the rest go as expected...That is it...That's all.
I wonder how much money is going into those races?
Take your pick, 3 of 9. Any three, of those nine, any combo, then we keep the Senate, win only 2, then we lose.
That includes Democratic wins in North Carolina and New Hampshire..
That assumes there will be no severe upsets in the other states...(those could be ...Miss, S.C. or West Virginia..very very unlikely)
....So, there it is: Three of Nine.
...That's it, clear and simple...I sure hope we do it. Time will tell.

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Reply If we win NC and New Hampshire, then we need 3 out of 9 of these in the Senate: (Original post)
Stuart G Oct 2014 OP
pscot Oct 2014 #1
Stuart G Oct 2014 #2
MADem Oct 2014 #3
Blue_In_AK Oct 2014 #4
ladyVet Oct 2014 #5
dsc Oct 2014 #6
Stuart G Oct 2014 #7
progressoid Oct 2014 #8
Savannahmann Oct 2014 #9
leeroysphitz Oct 2014 #10
maced666 Oct 2014 #11
Wella Oct 2014 #12
kentuck Oct 2014 #13

Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 12:32 PM

1. IOW, we need to win 5 of those 11

Piece of cake. All we have to do is vote.

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Response to pscot (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 12:40 PM

2. I hope we do vote, and everyone understands what is really at stake here.

And that is 12 days away.. In politics, anything can happen. Even the totally unexpected, and the positive unexpected . Like this fellow Obama...10 years ago, how many thought that was possible?..so, anything is possible..anything..

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 12:42 PM

3. Wish I could rec this more than once. nt

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 01:37 PM

4. There's an obscene amount of money being spent in Alaska. N/t

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 01:44 PM

5. I'm not sure we'll get NC.

I want it to be true, but there's so much of teh stoopid here lately.

On the good news front, it seems gays can still get married here. I'm still shocked, but very happy about it (about as happy as an old, straight woman can get, anyway).

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 02:07 PM

6. The NC race is the most expensive ever

we are over 100 million and counting. That is over 10 bucks a voter and will likely be over 20 a voter.

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Response to dsc (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 02:14 PM

7. I have a questions about the TV commercials this money is buying

In North Carolina, after all those ads, what good do they do?
..What good will another ten million in ads do? Towards the end of the campaign, do they matter? In 2012, I watched some and after a while they were almost upsetting to watch again. In NC, how close is it..? Will the ads really sway the undecided voters?

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 04:28 PM

8. We're working hard in IA for Braley.

It's neck/neck, but there is a lot of Koch money coming in against him.

Braley is leading in early voting and favorability. 7% say they might change their mind by election day.

Fingers crossed.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2100





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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 05:05 PM

9. Kansas is a wildcard.

 

Even if Orman wins, there is no guarantee that he would caucus with the Democrats. The jackass head of the RNC not withstanding. If it comes down to a 50-50 tie, then you can count on a bidding war over who gets Orman. Because that one Flaky guy has the power of the majority in his pocket. What wouldn't the Republicans give up to take control? What would the Democrats be willing to give to buy his loyalty for a short while? Because that loyalty would be all that was between you and the minority status.

So that leaves Arkansas, Georgia, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, and South Dakota.

Guess which one of those we're even close to winning? My state of Georgia. I am hopeful, but doubtful.

Now, even with the polling coming out showing Nunn taking a small lead, the pressure for the Republicans to hold firm and win is astonishingly high.

The NY Times has it at a 62% probability that the Republicans will win the Senate. http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

So control of the Senate may well come down to Greg Orman in Kansas. If he sides with the Democrats, then a couple months goes by and the DNC doesn't deliver on what he wants, he calls the Republicans. They give him a chairmanship of a committee, they can do that no problem, and he jumps ship and the Republicans are now the Majority. Then he calls the Democrats and asks for them to hold a big fundraiser for him with all those hollywood stars. They agree, and he jumps back to the Democrats. The Republicans offer a fund raiser with the Koch brothers. Orman jumps back to the Republicans. I can see a lot of majority changes in the future with this idiot who has said that he would like to go with whoever is in the majority. Imagine his delight when he gets to decide the majority by simply changing the party he can caucus with.

Greg Orman scares me because anyone that self serving in the Senate can do a lot of damage.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 05:56 PM

10. If we had ham we could make ham sandwiches. If we had some bread... n/t

 

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 05:57 PM

11. Georgia WELL within reach...

 

I think 'in the bag' but don't want to write it out loud!

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 06:05 PM

12. South Dakota is looking good

 

Spoiler independent and the Republican is in a scandal. I think there's an excellent chance of taking SD.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Thu Oct 23, 2014, 06:10 PM

13. I think the best chances are:

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Kansas, and Arkansas...

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