Ed Gillespie, George Bush's Florida svengali,

[sulphurdunn]

was trailing Mark Warner in the Virginia senate race by 11 points on Halloween night. Now, after the votes have been counted, they are tied and there will be a recount. Shades of Florida 2000.

[Dawson Leery]

1. Warner leads by .6% and 14k votes.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/mark-warner-ed-gillespie-2014-election-112591.html

The outstanding votes will add some to his margin. He has won.

[HERVEPA]

2. They are not tied. Why do you post they are?

[onenote]

3. No, it's not tied.

Warner has upped his lead to around 14,000 votes. Gillespie could ask for a recount (not automatic) and he faces the prospect of having to pay for it. If you recall (assuming you follow Virginia elections), Mark Herring held a miniscule lead of a few hundred votes (out of 2.2 million) for state attorney general last year. It went to a recount and Herring's victory was confirmed. If the repubs couldn't overturn a couple of hundred vote margin in the Herring recount, they aren't overturning Warner's 14,000 vote margin and while they may decide to demand a recount, i'm betting against it since they won't want to spend the money.

As for the polling, Warner's poll numbers for the past month have shown him with a decent lead, but also have shown him barely getting 50 percent during that period -- on October 31, he was, averaging the most recent polls, below 49 percent. That means that a lot of voters were undecided and that there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for the incumbent. Anytime an incumbent can't break 50 percent in the pre-election polling, you can expect a closer race than what a superficial glance at the polls might suggest.

[FSogol]

4. Haven't a lot of elections in VA been virtual ties recently?

Bob "Felon" McDonnell over Creigh Deeds: 323 vote difference
Mark Herring over Mark Obenshain: 907 vote difference

There is another one, but I don't remember it.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I was never worried about that outcome

Granted, it was much tighter than expected. But Virginia has a dependable pattern in reporting votes. The Democratic strongholds come in last. Gillespie was never far enough ahead to trigger an actual lead.

I don't follow politics as closely as years ago when I bet many races but I still remember most of the numerical guidelines from state to state.

[sulphurdunn]

6. I blew that call.

Thanks for the schooling.