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Wed Nov 5, 2014, 02:14 PM

 

Ed Gillespie, George Bush's Florida svengali,

was trailing Mark Warner in the Virginia senate race by 11 points on Halloween night. Now, after the votes have been counted, they are tied and there will be a recount. Shades of Florida 2000.

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Reply Ed Gillespie, George Bush's Florida svengali, (Original post)
sulphurdunn Nov 2014 OP
Dawson Leery Nov 2014 #1
HERVEPA Nov 2014 #2
onenote Nov 2014 #3
FSogol Nov 2014 #4
Awsi Dooger Nov 2014 #5
sulphurdunn Nov 2014 #6

Response to sulphurdunn (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2014, 02:24 PM

1. Warner leads by .6% and 14k votes.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/mark-warner-ed-gillespie-2014-election-112591.html

The outstanding votes will add some to his margin. He has won.

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Response to sulphurdunn (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2014, 02:32 PM

2. They are not tied. Why do you post they are?

 

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Response to sulphurdunn (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2014, 02:32 PM

3. No, it's not tied.

Warner has upped his lead to around 14,000 votes. Gillespie could ask for a recount (not automatic) and he faces the prospect of having to pay for it. If you recall (assuming you follow Virginia elections), Mark Herring held a miniscule lead of a few hundred votes (out of 2.2 million) for state attorney general last year. It went to a recount and Herring's victory was confirmed. If the repubs couldn't overturn a couple of hundred vote margin in the Herring recount, they aren't overturning Warner's 14,000 vote margin and while they may decide to demand a recount, i'm betting against it since they won't want to spend the money.

As for the polling, Warner's poll numbers for the past month have shown him with a decent lead, but also have shown him barely getting 50 percent during that period -- on October 31, he was, averaging the most recent polls, below 49 percent. That means that a lot of voters were undecided and that there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for the incumbent. Anytime an incumbent can't break 50 percent in the pre-election polling, you can expect a closer race than what a superficial glance at the polls might suggest.

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Response to sulphurdunn (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2014, 02:41 PM

4. Haven't a lot of elections in VA been virtual ties recently?

Bob "Felon" McDonnell over Creigh Deeds: 323 vote difference
Mark Herring over Mark Obenshain: 907 vote difference

There is another one, but I don't remember it.

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Response to sulphurdunn (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2014, 02:46 PM

5. I was never worried about that outcome

Granted, it was much tighter than expected. But Virginia has a dependable pattern in reporting votes. The Democratic strongholds come in last. Gillespie was never far enough ahead to trigger an actual lead.

I don't follow politics as closely as years ago when I bet many races but I still remember most of the numerical guidelines from state to state.

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Response to sulphurdunn (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2014, 03:51 PM

6. I blew that call.

 

Thanks for the schooling.

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