This is not really a complaint about hillary but about politics overall

[La Lioness Priyanka]

I get the feeling from listening to democrat potentials talk that they don't want to run if Hillary does, this bothers me for two reasons

1. it's not her turn, no matter what people say. no one has earned a presidency, they either win it or not, but no one really deserves it.

2. you should have faith that the democratic base will pick someone else, if someone else is a better candidate (think obama)

I hope that i am wrong and these other candidates decide to run, include Warren, Gillibrand, O'malley, Cuomo and Biden etc. I think it would make for a better race if these people threw their hats in, instead of creating this air of inevitability. HRC may best them anyway, but they should give it a shot.

(i know some of you will welcome the chance to take cheap shots at HRC but HRC is not my complaint here. The democratic elite should stop acting as though if HRC ran, somehow they could not run as well)

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. We will be best served as a country by the most able candidate - who hopefully is

also the strongest candidate with the best potential to win. At least that's my view - then again, I am not one for authority, birthright, royalty, pre-determination, pre-annointing - again not assuming that any of this is at play at DU. I like change (weird, I know). Extrapolate that statement to what you will.

Of course, the issue of this is that though we are one country, we are as diverse as can be, depending upon too many factors to list.

We have to accept that there are going to be many views, many "favorite" candidates, for many different reasons. I think if we can keep discussions on facts and data, it would help us get to the best way forward.

I would love to see a full slate of Dem debates so we can get a good comparison. And as many good candidates as possible.

[cyberswede]

2. Quality primary rivalries make the eventual candidate stronger, too.

I hope we have a nice slate of candidates. The Rs will have another clown car & Jeb.

[unblock]

4. not in the same election cycle, no.

generally speaking, same party challengers lay the groundwork for the opposition candidate in the general. when the country is strongly leaning toward one party or the other (not much lately, though arguably yes in 2008) and the party is going to win anyway, then yes, a robust challenge can make for a stronger candidate in the general and a stronger president, provided the party and the challenging candidates come together in earnest.

but when the country is more evenly divided politically, then no, a party with an internal challenge is less likely to survive the general. this is particularly true for the incumbent party.

[unblock]

3. if you put any stock into lichtman's keys, then an uncontested primary is crucial.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

we just lost the "mandate" key, as republicans will have more seats in the house of representatives after this midterm than after the last midterm. we aren't likely to win the "foreign/military success key", nor the "incumbent charisma" key and we obviously can't have the "incumbency" key as obama can't run again. i don't think we get the "policy change" key either as nothing major will happen in obama's second term.

that puts us in trouble, as losing a 6th key means losing the presidency. so keeping the "contest" key is crucial. the only way we're getting an uncontested primary is if no one mounts a credible challenge to hillary.

then we also need a few other things, such as no 3rd party challenge, no foreign/military failure, no opposition charisma, and obviously no economic problems. i think we can get all of those, though it's not a given.


depending on how you interpret the system, a contested contest is either a recipe for a loss, or a symptom that we're doomed anyway.

[hfojvt]

5. most people do not think it is "her turn"

If somebody is not wanting to run against Hillary, they are probably just not willing to go on a suicide mission.

Hillary has

1. massive name recognition
2. a great stock of personal funds
3. connections to donors
4. connections to other elected Democrats.

Remember the 2008 primaries? One of Hillary's main campaign themes seemed to be "another Democratic bigshot endorses Hillary". You know damned well that is going to happen again.

So here you are going in to, say, the Wisconsin primary, and Hillary will have announced - Senator Tammy Baldwin, former Senators Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl, Governor candidate Mary Burke, Congressmen Ron Kind, Mark Pocan and especially Congresswoman Gwen Moore. All endorsing her, and making the news in doing so.

And here you are "Hey, I am Martin O'Malley, and nobody knows who I am and nobody is endorsing me, but I have a great message that agrees 90% will Hillary's (or she will say it does. Remember the 2008 debates, any time Hillary went last, she basically stole everybody else's thunder, starting her own talk with 'I agree with what has been said') and of course, nobody is going to be able to hear my message because I don't have any money.

Oh, and not only that, once Hillary wins two or three contests, the media will have already coronated her.

These people do not have some naive "faith" in the Democratic base. If they've won elections, they have real-politik understanding of what it takes to win an election. They know which way the tsunami is heading. They aren't going to jump in the Niagara river and start trying to swim upstream.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

6. Obama ran against here, so did Biden and several others

so why won't they run now? especially now that they know they she can be defeated

[LawDeeDah]

7. Exactly. Hillary the Inevitable ran in 2008 as well.

And there was no shortage of contenders.

I don't believe for a minute anyone is afraid or daunted or committing suicide if Hillary is running - it's a polcamp rumor that will not work, in fact it looks juvenile to play that way. No one cowered before the grate Clinton in 2008, the group was varied and robust with nary a spark of fear in their eyes.

[hfojvt]

8. Perhaps because they saw what a fluke Obama was

and only two really survived to even see Super-duper Tuesday.