Texas won’t turn blue from the top down, but it may already be doing so from the ground up.

[marmar]

from In These Times:


Texas: The Blue Frontier
Texas won’t turn blue from the top down, but it may already be doing so from the ground up.

BY THEO ANDERSON


Have you heard the one about turning Texas blue?

It may seem like a joke after the midterm elections. Wendy Davis, the Democrats’ once-promising candidate for governor, got only 39 percent, and Republicans increased their majority in the state legislature.

Still, it’s easy to see why 33,000 volunteers gave their time last fall to Battleground Texas, a get-out-the-vote effort to deliver the Lone Star State to the Democrats. Though Texas ranks second to California in Electoral College votes, 55 to 38, no state looms as large on the U.S. political horizon. For conservatives, Texas embodies everything that makes America great. For progressives, it delivers one outsized and calamitous politician after another.

The idea that Democrats might “flip” the crown jewel of American conservatism has been great entertainment for pundits, whose speculation smacks of Christian end-times prophesying. Will it happen by 2024? Sooner? Ever? The New Republic published a classic of the genre in 2013, offering “eight charts explain(ing) why ‘blue Texas’ won’t happen.” Jon Stewart’s Daily Show piled on last fall, comparing Democrats who think they can win Texas to a guy who believes he can “flip” a lesbian: “I just need time!”

Talk of flipping Texas generally centers on its role in presidential elections, because adding it to the list of safely blue states would guarantee Democrats a lock on the executive branch. The discussion hinges on the state’s demographics. In 2013, the population was about 44 percent white, 38 percent Hispanic, and 12 percent African-American. By 2020, the white and Hispanic share of the population will be roughly equal, at 41 percent. Democrats typically get at least 90 percent of the African-American vote and about two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in residential elections, which means that Texas should turn blue in 2020—all things being equal. ...............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://inthesetimes.com/article/17443/texas_the_blue_frontier

[hobbit709]

1. Battleground Texas was no fucking help.

They talked a good show but they were only in it for the money.

[ananda]

3. Oh.

I thought Battleground registered a lot of voters.

But I'm not sure that they mounted a strong
get out the vote effort getting all those people
to the polls.

[hobbit709]

4. Here's some input from JuanitaJean

http://www.juanitajean.com/2014/11/09/sandbox-texas/

[Gothmog]

6. Battleground had some issues and was not as effective as it could be

Battleground is run by the same people who are running Ready for Hillary and their main goal is to sell e-mail lists to the Clinton campaign. Much of the data that was collected by Battleground was not shared with the Texas Democratic Party and I suspect that Battleground will sell that data to the Clinton campaign.

[hobbit709]

7. Ready for Hillary is in for a surprise if they contact me.

[Gothmog]

9. I gave some money to battleground early on and now I am getting tons of ready for hillary e-mails

I am ignoring these e-mails. I support Hillary Clinton but I have issues with Battleground and the Ready for Hillary people as does Juanita Jean (who I saw on Dec. 15 at a party meeting)

[ananda]

2. Davis won by 22% in Travis County.

But she lost by about that much statewide.

She sort of forgot her base and tried to move center-right a little too far;
she got cornered by Abbott's pit bulls on the wheelchair issue; and she
was hurt by some personal attacks that she did not handle well.

Also, Texas as a whole still has a ways to go regarding sexism, racism,
and the weird religionism stemming from the rural mentality.

I was surprised that Harris County moved to the right this time. I
don't know what that dynamic was since I moved out of there
a few years ago.

Also, Texas is gerrymandered. That kind of gerrymandering needs to
be outlawed.

[Rstrstx]

10. No surprise there

It only went for Obama by a razor-thin margin in 2012. The demographic that showed up to vote in 2014 was notably whiter, older, and more conservative at both the national and state level.

It would be nice to see the state move towards a council-based redistricting process. In fact Jeff Wentworth, a relatively moderate Republican, proposed one about a decade ago. He got tea-partied in the 2012 primary.

The best proposal would be to see neutral redistricting AND a state move to a Nebraska or Maine type system where the winner of each Congressional district would receive an electoral vote. Of course that's not going to happen, except maybe until the Republicans legitimately fear the state might flip.

In the meantime we're just going to see the state used as an ATM machine by both parties.

[Gothmog]

5. Texas will turn blue eventually

Battleground had some issues including not sharing data with the Texas Democratic Party. We are making progress but it is slow. The voter id law did work to suppress the vote.

[BillZBubb]

8. Demographics are the Democrats only hope in Texas.

Most of the old, white people in Texas are right wingers. Once they die off, the playing field will get a more even. Until then, expect the worse.