The number of foreigners fighting in Syria and Iraq just hit an alarming new record

[applegrove]

The number of foreigners fighting in Syria and Iraq just hit an alarming new record

by Zack Beauchamp at Vox

http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7915741/foreign-fighters-isis

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According to the ICSR report, up to 20,730 people have gone to fight for Sunni militant groups in Syria and Iraq. Emphasis on "up to:" ICSR's report contains a range, and the 20,730 figure comes from adding all of the high-end estimates together. Using low-end estimate comes out to around 16,700. These estimates come from collating and comparing government figures, media reports, and statements from the militant groups themselves.

Still, that number already matches or even exceeds credible high-end estimates for the number of foreigners who went to fight against the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (about 20,000 foreign fighters). Until now, that conflict had attracted more foreign fighters than any other since 1945. And the wars in Syria and Iraq are very far from over.

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The majority of fighters who return home will not commit terrorist attacks. According to Neumann, the highest-end estimate suggests 25 percent will plan attacks back home. One estimate from September suggested that less than one percent of Western European foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq had, to date, gotten involved in terrorism. Countries with strong security services, like those in Western Europe, are particularly well-positioned to foil plots.

Nevertheless, the threat from returnees is real. Attacks planned by foreign fighters "tend to be [among] the more lethal and more viable terrorist plots," Neumann says, because foreign fighters have "military training, motivation, and an international [support] network." Moreover, some countries may be more threatened by foreign fighters than others. For example, an estimated 1,500 to 3,000 of the fighters are from Tunisia, a young democracy and the Arab Spring's big success story.

"There is a very strong recruitment network of Salafist organizations that send people from Tunisia to Syria or Iraq," Neumann says. "In the long term, [Tunisia] is facing a big challenge of people coming from back from Syria and Iraq. Perhaps one of the reason's it's so peaceful there is that all of the troublemakers are in a different place."



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[riderinthestorm]

1. I'm so cynical I believe western countries are relieved potential jihadis are leaving

Now they have to figure out how to block their return.

It makes their job easier in terms of defining the bad guys....

[Quantess]

2. That would be a smart idea, actually.

I am prepared to be disappointed when the western countries let the ISIS fighters come back.