Prediction: Supremes will uphold ObamaCare by 6-3 margin

[wyldwolf]

In the case of King v. Burwell argued this morning, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule 6-3 in favor of the Obama administration and against conservative critics of ObamaCare, thus putting an end to the final legal challenge to the health-care law.

It will do so for the following reasons:

— Taken in its totality, the law is clear. In various sections and in various ways, the Affordable Care Act repeatedly makes clear that insurance subsidies are to be paid to qualified Americans regardless of whether they buy insurance through a state-run or federal-run exchange. Unfortunately for opponents of the law, one four-word segment of a 400,000-word law does not change that.

— When the law passed and long thereafter, everybody understood and accepted that subsidies would be paid both through state and federal exchanges. It was not even an issue. For example, when Georgia Republicans announced that they would refuse to establish a state-run exchange and would instead defer to the federal government, not a single person in the entire state believed that decision meant that no subsidies could be provided to Georgia citizens. The same is true of the other 33 states that did not create their own exchanges.**

— In 2012, when conservatives challenged the constitutionality of ObamaCare in NFIB v. Sebelius, they filed legal briefs with the Supreme Court that made it clear that they too understood that subsidies would be paid through the federal exchange. (The fact that those same conservatives now claim to believe the exact opposite has not gone unnoticed.) The four conservative justices in the minority in that 2012 case — Thomas, Scalia, Alito and Kennedy — made it equally clear in their dissent that they too saw no functional distinction between federal and state exchanges (see here, pages 185-187).

— It is longstanding Supreme Court practice to interpret laws as a whole, rather than focus too much attention on one small section that might appear to conflict with the larger legislation. As one justice reminded us in oral arguments on an earlier case this year, “we look at the entire law. We have to make sense of the law as a whole.”

More...

http://jaybookman.blog.ajc.com/2015/03/04/prediction-supremes-will-uphold-obamacare-by-6-3-margin/

[Still Sensible]

1. I'm guessing 5-4

I suspect Kennedy will come down on the correct side this time, allowing Roberts to try and make amends with his GOP masters by voting the other way.

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

2. He has laid out exactly what serious jurists would do if they were deciding this case.

Jurists who are not political and do not have an agenda.

It is my belief, however, 5 of those jurists wish to put Americans on the




and then



any hope they have of healthcare.

[onenote]

3. 5-4 more likely I think

I didn't see any sign from Roberts that he was leaning in the direction of the government in this case. Kennedy's questions challenged the plaintiffs' attorney more than any questions from Roberts. And even with that, I think Kennedy's support for the law is anything but certain.

[chillfactor]

4. I hope you're right....

a ruling against the subsidies would leave millions of Americans in despair

[hifiguy]

5. I agree. It will be a 5-4 or 6-3 decision to uphold

Largely for the reasons you set forth.

[Jakes Progress]

6. Prediction: If so, republicans

will raise millions in the presidential race with the cry for a more conservative appointee for the court.

[craigmatic]

7. I'm guessing we'll lose 5-4. Roberts and Kennedy will side with repubs.

[anotojefiremnesuka]

8. Kennedy will side with the corporations, he always does

first time around the corps did not want it now they do.

Roberts cares about his legacy above all and he does not want to go down a the Chief Justice who would literally be responsible for the deaths of millions. We are on the long slow road to single payer, everyone knows it, even the insurance companies know it. If we do lose, the insurance industry will go in to chaos and We the people will hit the breaking point and DEMAND Single Payer and our elected official's will have no choice but to pass it or be bounced from office. What we have now allows the insurance companies to milk us and the gov for a long time until the enviable single payer happens.

Now as far as gay marriage goes Roberts may very well become Mr States Rights but twist himself up in knots doing so.

[geek tragedy]

9. 6-3 on federalism (i.e. conservative doctrinal) grounds nt

[Hoyt]

10. I think even the callous right wingers will have difficulty finding against Congressional intent.

Well, daddy bush's joke on America might.

[GusFring]

11. I think it's a mistake to assume thesd assholes will do what's right.

It's a shame these people have so much power

[CTyankee]

12. please god, they will take into consideration the millions of people who will have health

care snatched away from them if they rule in favor of the plaintiffs.

I pray they have that insight and that judgment...