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Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
Sat Mar 7, 2015, 07:07 PM Mar 2015

The Facts on Nuclear Power in Iran - because the war mongers and media are counting on ignorance.

Last edited Sat Mar 7, 2015, 07:58 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-G-N/Iran/

A large nuclear power reactor is operating in Iran, after many years construction, and a second is planned.

The country also has a major program developing uranium enrichment, which was concealed for many years.

Iran has not suspended its enrichment-related activities, or its work on heavy water-related projects, as required by the UN Security Council.

Iran produced 254 billion kWh gross in 2012, with consumption of about 200 TWh, per capita about 2600 kWh/yr. Its 2012 electricity production comprised 170 TWh from gas, 69 TWh from oil, both of which it has in abundance, 12.5 TWh from hydro which is less reliably available, and 2 TWh from nuclear power.

Demand is growing about 4% per year, and Iran trades electricity with Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Turkmenistan and Turkey. Net export is about 7 TWh/yr.
In mid-2013 generating capacity was 68 GWe. The country plans to boost generating capacity to 122 GWe by 2022, with substantial export potential.

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City of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and Electrical Conversion Facility




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Current Uranium Enrichment Progress and Plans

Over 2009-10 the Iranian centrifuge program was set back by the Stuxnet computer virus which affected Iranian companies involved with the control systems for the IR-1 centrifuges. In late 2009 to early 2010 about 1000 centrifuges at FEP were decommissioned. This appears to have been due to Stuxnet affecting frequency converters and causing the motors to over-speed, destroying the units. The normal failure rate of the IR-1 centrifuges is reported as about 10% per year.

The underground Fordow enrichment plant (FFEP) is evidently playing a larger role in producing 19.75% enriched uranium, using the well-proved IR-1 centrifuges. This positions Iran to stockpile a large amount of 19.75% LEU in a facility better protected against military strikes.

With about 9000 centrifuges operating through 2013 and to May 2014, most at 0.71 SWU/yr each (though Fordow 0.87), the total is about 6500 SWU/yr capacity at Natanz in May 2014, according to ISIS, and another 600 SWU/yr at Fordow with its 700 operating centrifuges. Across its three facilities, 18,458 IR-1 centrifuges and 1008 IR-2m centrifuges were installed at May 2104.

To November 2014 Iran had produced a total of 13,397 kg of LEU hexafluoride enriched up to 5%, of which 8390 kg remained in that form, the rest having been further processed. The rate was earlier about 233 kg/month. About 3437 kg of this LEU have been used to make 448 kg of 19.75 % LEU hexafluoride at PFEP and FFEP, and to January 2014 this had been ongoing at about 15 kg/month.

This far exceeds Iran’s needs for the Tehran research reactor, and to August 2014 about 15% of this had been made into fuel assemblies for that reactor while the rest was converted to oxide. (About 260 kg of that material could be turned into 56 kg of weapons-grade uranium with input of only 1800 SWU, and the rate of production could readily be increased using installed capacity.)

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OPINION:

Iran has halted all of the laborious and time consuming production of research grade uranium, but has far more than required for research. This is what Obama means when he says Iran has been acting in good faith lately, Iran is further away from a nuclear weapon than a year ago. It has confirmed all higher mid-grade research uranium processing has been halted - International nuclear inspectors have now daily inspection access and all 5 negotiating nations and the UN are satisfied.
All the uranium of all grades has been accounted for and accurately computed as an highly probable count based not on trust, on the math and science of nuclear enrichment processing capacity.

All the technical details have been worked out, as just announced March 4, 2015. That is a true milestone unreported as such in the media. Not much other than the details of inspection remain. A Treaty is very close.

For the doubters - Remember when Hans Blix, head of the UN nuclear inspection agency was satisfied that Iraq had no nuclear capacity and no WMD's? And was right? Same folks.

Central to ongoing negotiations is the fate of the 448 kg of 19.75% LEU hexafluoride, enriched uranium as the media commonly calls it, and the 260 kg of material that could be further upgraded to weapons grade fissionable material.

Other issues are the number of advance phase 2 centrifuges Iran would be allowed to retain, the quantity of 19.75% research grade uranium Iran needs for it's research reactor, and the overall places of storage of everything.

The idea is to make it literally impossible to upgrade any quantity of uranium to weapons grade for at least one year once or if Iran decided to gear back up, having breached any agreement. What is the balance between power plant grade uranium, research grade uranium, the number of centrifuges, finally producing a nuclear weapon, and the one year goal?

And of course, inspections and the details of those inspections.

It is not all that complicated, but there are details upon details involved.

Nuclear Weapons Treaties work, history has proven it. The good news is this:

5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The Facts on Nuclear Power in Iran - because the war mongers and media are counting on ignorance. (Original Post) Fred Sanders Mar 2015 OP
The only Nuke threat in the Mid East is Wellstone ruled Mar 2015 #1
Iran is giving up some of it's sovereignty, every nation has the right to choose, only one has the Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #2
Amazing the level of world Wellstone ruled Mar 2015 #4
The American voter is remarkably trusting in it's media, beyond scary, so easily manipulated. Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #5
Remember when the IAEA inspected the nuclear facilities in Israel? Tierra_y_Libertad Mar 2015 #3

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
2. Iran is giving up some of it's sovereignty, every nation has the right to choose, only one has the
Sat Mar 7, 2015, 07:47 PM
Mar 2015

right to choose to develop actual, real 80 nuclear weapons in secret and without any interference.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
4. Amazing the level of world
Sat Mar 7, 2015, 08:17 PM
Mar 2015

ignorance as to the what where when and why there are issues in the Mid East. But,War is a Racket and the major racketeers is the Military Industrial Complex based mostly here in the good old USA. But what the heck,they don't have to worry about exposure by our Lame Ass Media,just remembered,they own it.













Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
5. The American voter is remarkably trusting in it's media, beyond scary, so easily manipulated.
Sat Mar 7, 2015, 09:59 PM
Mar 2015

Even Canadians and Britons are not near so trusting. What is it about the American media, in the absence of imaginative conspiracy theories, like collusion among the Oligarth owners controlling 95% of traditional and new media?

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