Politicsusa.com: Bush Campaign Shows Signs Of Unraveling As Jeb Drops To 4th Place In GOP Race

[stevenleser]

http://www.politicususa.com/2015/04/24/bush-campaign-unraveling-early-jeb-drops-4th-place-gop-race.html

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was hoping to use a shock and awe fundraising blitz to establish himself as the GOP front-runner early on in the campaign. The Bush strategy was to lock up donors and early primary voters, in order to give him the same sense of inevitability on the Republican side as Hillary Clinton enjoys in the Democratic race. However, a Fox News poll released on April 24, 2015 finds Bush’s candidacy floundering in the polls, mustering a meager 9 percent support in the multi-candidate GOP field.

Bush has embarrassingly fallen into single digits, trailing fellow Floridian, Senator Marco Rubio (13 percent support), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (12 percent), and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (10 percent). Bush is tied for fourth place with former Arkansas Governor and FOX TV personality Mike Huckabee, garnering just 9 percent support from potential Republican voters.

While the poll numbers alone are a source of concern for Jeb Bush, what may cause him even more consternation is that he also seems to be losing his grip on the invisible primary of wealthy donors in the GOP. The Bush campaign always figured they might struggle to appeal to some socially conservative rank-and-file Republicans, but their strategy was to lock down the donor class.

With enough financial support, Jeb’s hope was to essentially pummel his opponents financially and will his way to victory through the power of the almighty dollar. Bush planned to rely on the ability of heavily funded pro-Bush super PACs to trash his primary opponents and propel him to the nomination, following a pattern similar to the one employed by Mitt Romney in 2012 to fend off Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.
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(more at above link)

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This is good and bad news. The good news is that of all the GOP hopefuls in 2016, Jeb probably would have the best chance against whoever we nominate (probably Hillary). The bad news is, you never know what can happen, and this means a really crazy wingnut is going to be nominated and that person could end up as President.

I predicted several months ago that Ted Cruz would be the nominee.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. With the tired caveat it's still early

With the tired caveat it's still early shouldn't the brother of a president, the son of another one, the grandson of a senator, and the former governor of the most Electoral vote rich state be doing better?

[stevenleser]

2. Short answer? Yes. But he won't, because of all the reasons the article cites.

The situation with the wealthiest GOP donors has changed. They're going for the wingnuts like Cruz and Walker this go around.

Add that to the positions Jeb has adopted that the base doesn't like, such as immigration and common core, and that adds up to a real avalanche coming down on Jeb's campaign.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The only path to victory for Cruz, imho...

The only path to victory for Cruz, imho, is if Rubio, Bush lll, and a dark horse candidate Kasich, split the main stream vote...

[jmowreader]

18. You got three out of the four right

California is the most electoral vote-rich state; next are Texas and New York, and then you find the state Jeb ran into the ground.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I must be getting old or sloppy...

I meant the most Electoral vote rich swing state.

[Motown_Johnny]

3. Cruz is one hell of a long shot

but in that spirit, I will throw Santorum out there as a possible nominee.


I think that after the SCOTUS decision on same sex marriage is announced (no matter which way it goes) Santorum will get into the race. He won 11 states last time, including Iowa which was really stolen from him so he never got the bounce out of that win that he should have had.

He really should be the next in line. Conservatives love to not think about anything and just nominate the next in line. I think Rick has a real shot. As much as anyone else on their side.

[blm]

5. I WANT Bush to be the nominee. I want public to SAY OUT LOUD

and clearly whether they want this nation to endure the jobkilling, deficit growing policies and governance of the Bushes and GOP or the surplus budget policies and governance of the Clintons and Dems.

Because when it comes down to it, that is exactly what the choice will be, and I say that as a well known critic of the Clintons here at DU.

[blkmusclmachine]

8. So, 2016 is GOP or GOP lite?

No thanks!

[blm]

25. That's the way some interpret it. I am addressing the majority of VOTERS who

will be casting their votes in 2016 based on THEIR personal view of how the Clinton WH and the Bush WH affected their homes and this country.

[drray23]

6. I dont think it will be true nearer to the elections.

Right now, all the crazies are entering the race, they are going to burn out one by one.

There will be enough churning of the water during the republican primaries for bush or some other establishment GOP guy to emerge.
I seriously doubt Cruz or Rubio or the like will be the nominee.

[JCMach1]

7. Rubio is legit...

We ignore that at our peril...

[BlueStater]

15. A legit lightweight, that is. n/t

[daredtowork]

9. Ted Cruz would be like the Prez from The Dead Zone *shiver* nt

[stevenleser]

10. Agreed. What he has going for him is outside of Rand, the most fanatical supporters

The crazies like those at FR who want the most consistently conservative candidate. They love Cruz.

Cruz has pandered to that crowd specifically with stunts like the fake filibuster where he threw the rest of the GOP under the bus in a drama plot against Obamacare that had no possibility of success.

And as obvious a sham as it was, the FR crowd fell for it.

[monmouth4]

11. I would not be at all surprised if Jeb were to pull out of the race. If he cannot win it all, he

would not want any of it. Egos are a big obstacle for these folks..

[customerserviceguy]

14. At this point

he's still the the exploratory phase, he hasn't officially tossed his hat into the ring. It would be very easy to just let this one pass him by, frankly, anyone with a smidgen of a brain knows that it would be easier for the Rethugs in 2020 than in 2016.

[hifiguy]

12. I think Snotty Walker is still the "favorite" at this point.

The Kochtopus wants him enough to throw half a billion behind him.

[Major Hogwash]

31. Yeah, after he fucked up the entire state of Wisconsin, he wants to take his act nationally!

And we know the Koch Bros. have endorsed him before.

[customerserviceguy]

13. Heard a couple of things this morning

on the talking heads shows. One of the more conservative talking heads (might have been on Georgie's show, could have been on Chuckie's) said that Jebbie has no core constituency, so it was safe for the others to go after him, without risking alienating his voters.

Another thing was from that guy doing the Clinton Cash book, he said he'd be going after Bush next. I guess this is why I've heard Bush/Clinton described as the double helix of American politics.

[wheniwasincongress]

20. Apparently the Bush book is not happening and has not been happening!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026570404

[customerserviceguy]

21. I saw that

and at this point, I'm going to figure that the publisher has been told to deny, or at least not confirm one. We've been told on national TV that there is going to be one, and if there is not one, then it will discredit the Clinton book.

[blm]

23. LOL - most likely that Schweizer made that up on the spot to cover his ass -

especially since he already did a lengthy look at the Bushes and used limited hangout technique to provide cover then, and, in the end absolving Bushes of wrongdoing that matters.

Wow - you are exceedingly generous to that RW propagandist Schweizer. I guess yours' are the type of hearts and minds and votes he wrote this crock of sh!t for in the first place.

[customerserviceguy]

26. No

I just thought he didn't crack under the pressure. I'd be really surprised to find out that he made up the Bush remark on the spot, especially since he wasn't goaded into it.

I figure that he not only doesn't want Hillary to be President, he doesn't want Bush to be in that office, either. My bet is that he's working on behalf of or at least in sympathy with a more conservative GOPer. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if it was Paul, but I have a greater suspicion that it was Cruz.

Look, if you're trying to call me a right-winger, you're barking up the wrong tree. Hillary is staking her campaign on this "I'm the champion of the little guy" theme, and most folks I know aren't involved in multi-million dollar foundations, nor do they get very large sums of money just for giving a speech. She's not doing a great job of looking like the common folks this week. I just see the optics of the whole thing.

[blm]

32. It was totally CYA for him - he could have written a Bush piece long ago when

he had the access for the earlier piece he wrote that also employed the 'limited hangout' tactic.

Geez - you think those of us who have CAREFULLY watched the Bushes operate in this country and around the world for over 4 decades are unfamiliar with the tactics that manage to work best for their long-range purposes?

Still laughing at your supposition that the publisher was probably warned to not confirm Schweizer was writing a similar book about Bushes. Yeah - Like Harper and Bushes have anything to fear from each other. LOLOLOLOL

[customerserviceguy]

33. I have no idea

why the publisher said what he said, I was only speculating.

At some point in the near future, we will find out who was lying. It doesn't make any difference whether there is a Bush book or not, the damage is being done to Hillary, and we may start to see that in polling data, if it sticks.

[Logical]

16. Steven, if anyone should know it's way too early it should be you! nt

[BlueStater]

17. He hasn't even announced yet and all those numbers are close.

Frankly, I'd hold off writing his political obituary.

[stevenleser]

28. His name has the most recognition on their side but compare his numbers to Hillary's

He's not producing any excitement at all among the base and surprisingly little among donors.

[BlueStater]

30. It's not like the three guys ahead of him are killing him in terms of preference.

Seems to me that NONE of them are actually exciting anyone.

[Warren DeMontague]

19. There's no such thing as a "moderate" Republican. Not anymore.

Jeb's brother was allegedly supposed to be one, too, back in the day. At least that was how he was originally sold to the American people.

Whoever spills out of that clown car will govern as a wingnut, IF they end up winning the White House. That seems pretty much guaranteed. That's another reason why our person needs to win.

Democrat Presidents sometimes disappoint by not living up to our highest expectations, but Republican ones seem to always exceed our worst fears.

[stevenleser]

27. I agree 100% that any GOPer if elected would given as a wingnut but

There are worse degrees of wingnuttery.

We would get some spectacularly crazy shite from a Cruz, Walker or Paul Presidency.

[Warren DeMontague]

29. Good point.

[Zorra]

24. Recommended. Always associate every republican candidate with the name "Bush". nt

[romanic]

34. The Bush name

Has been tainted from his brother and father's work in the White House. Seems Republicans want a shiny new brand of crazy.