Unemployment to drop to 5.2% in May; to reach 4.8% by September

[applegrove]

Unemployment to drop to 5.2% in May; to reach 4.8% by September

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/jobs/posts/2015/06/06-barnichon-monthly-jobs-update-june-2015

Regis Barnichon

"SNIP..................


This post discusses my monthly update of the Barnichon-Nekarda model. For an introduction to the basic concepts used in this post, read my introductory post (Full details are available here.)

In April, the unemployment rate dropped by 10 basis points to 5.4%, while the model was anticipating a larger (25 basis points) decline. The miss was in worker’s job finding rate (hiring): the model was expecting a very strong rebound in hiring that only partially materialized (figure 4). However, the outlook remains very positive, and the model continues to predict that a large drop in unemployment is imminent; expecting a 20 basis points drop for May and a jobless rate of 5.2 percent. Going forward, the contour of the forecast is broadly unchanged with a steady decline in unemployment over the next 6 months.



....................SNIP"

[shenmue]

1. Take that, Obama-haters!

[Quackers]

4. I actually like Obama and think he's done a great job except

For the TPP. I disagree with him on that. In regards to unemployment, I'm just not seeing it around here. People are still struggling where I live. Jobs are scarce and low-paying. I guess we are the exception?

[bigwillq]

5. It seems that way in my area as well

Although I don't have any statistics to give you, and I am too lazy to Google (just got home from work and ready to go to bed). It just feels like the economy is stagnant, no matter how many promising data reports they release.

[onecaliberal]

2. That is good news but by no means is that the real unemployment rate.

[brentspeak]

3. Hooray for McJobs and reduced work force statistics-padding!

Hip, hip...hooray!

[Dawson Leery]

6. Fox "News": unemployment reaches 520%!

[quaker bill]

7. I know it is not everywhere

But local unemployment is mid 4% range. I run into help wanted signs pretty much every day. The agency I work for had trouble filling vacancies. Most of the folks I speak to on the private side say the same. Wages are going up even in the service sector.

I hear that there are still pockets within the region where the improvement is not as pronounced, but there is reportedly improvement pretty much everywhere.

[CrispyQ]

8. Does anyone really believe these figures?

Really?