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Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:03 AM

Stating the Obvious: If Newt is the (R) Nominee, Obama Will Win in a Landslide

If that is the match-up, it will most likely boil down to a likability and trust referendum on Obama's first 4 years. Newt, of course is the perfect foil for that and reminds people exactly what the problem is (Congress).

If you disagree, please explain...

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Reply Stating the Obvious: If Newt is the (R) Nominee, Obama Will Win in a Landslide (Original post)
JCMach1 Dec 2011 OP
Fearless Dec 2011 #1
JCMach1 Dec 2011 #2
Fearless Dec 2011 #3
JCMach1 Dec 2011 #4
A-Schwarzenegger Dec 2011 #5
JCMach1 Dec 2011 #6
RZM Dec 2011 #7
JCMach1 Dec 2011 #8
RZM Dec 2011 #9
Behind the Aegis Dec 2011 #10
Warren DeMontague Dec 2011 #13
chrisa Dec 2011 #15
pnwmom Dec 2011 #11
Warren DeMontague Dec 2011 #12
Gman Dec 2011 #14
Odin2005 Dec 2011 #16
Puzzledtraveller Dec 2011 #17
ThomWV Dec 2011 #18
MoonRiver Dec 2011 #19

Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:04 AM

1. That'll make for a fun DU election season though!!

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Response to Fearless (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:05 AM

2. Didn't say we would win back Congress though

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:07 AM

3. We'll see!

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Response to Fearless (Reply #3)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:11 AM

4. Quite possibly a similar pattern to 1996

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:13 AM

5. Newt's megalomania will become increasingly obvious

& frightening.

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Response to A-Schwarzenegger (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:15 AM

6. Exactly, the MSM and the Republican Status Quo team have been working overtime

to sink the SS Newt...

They know what his nomination would mean.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:15 AM

7. I'd say a barely comfortable victory, but not a landslide

 

I think Newt would some states McCain didn't, i.e. N. Carolina and Virginia. But that's less about Newt, and more about the fact that 2012 Obama has had to govern and isn't a blank slate. But Newt probably can't take enough states to get him across the finish line, so barring a scandal/game changing event, I'd say Obama wins in something between a nail-biter and a comfortable win (Obama will win New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio, with Colorado a toss-up).

BTW I still think Romney will be the nominee. His electoral map probably isn't much different from Newt's though.

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Response to RZM (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:17 AM

8. Doing mental math, but in your scenario, Florida would be the tie-breaker...



don't like that scenario...

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #8)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:24 AM

9. LOL. I don't want to have to get my electoral map out

 

The number crunchers on both sides are way better than me on this. You may be right, which might explain things if Rubio is the VP candidate. If the R gets the 'southern steals' (yes I just made that up) plus Florida, can Obama win with Ohio and New Mexico? Would Colorado be the decider there? it's 3.24 here in Ohio and I don't want to look this up, though I probably will tomorrow

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:31 AM

10. I don't think so.

The Republicans have a way of lining up very quickly behind their candidate. I also think we run a risk of losing if we get complacent and think because it is someone we think is a nutjob, that others (no party and centrists) will think the same. We are seeing a very mobile effort by the religious right, and Newt could very well lead them in an uprising, he's done it before. Remember, many of his supports aren't horrified when he doesn't follow the rules he (or they) preach!

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Response to Behind the Aegis (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:38 AM

13. They're all nutjobs. The least nuttiest ones are the ones the party refuses to get enthusiastic over

because they're just not seeming nutty enough, i.e. Romney and Huntsman.

That said, we shouldn't get complacent. The problem, as I see it is, is a lack of enthusiasm on OUR side, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why. Obama needs to stop whizzing on his base and start inspiring us, and the country. These dumbfuck moves around things like Plan B contraception and kicking down doors at medical marijuana co-ops to drag cancer grannies off to prison for getting high.... they're NOT convincing conservatives that he's "moderate" and so they should vote for him; they're only alienating (further) the base. Frankly, while "we're not the other, clearly insane party" is a solid electoral argument, it's not ENOUGH. I expect leadership, and while I support the President, I think he has delivered it in very limited quantities lately.

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Response to Behind the Aegis (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 08:31 AM

15. Newt isn't mister charisma, though - He's not likeable in the least bit.

But yeah, complacency isn't a good thing, especially with someone like Newt running.

I think he has way too many skeletons in his closet to be President.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:32 AM

11. Stating the obvious: the Rethugs control the State Houses, and with that, the voting machines.

Obama will HAVE to win by a landslide to win at all. If the polls aren't showing a clear win for Obama, the machines in a few critical states will hand the Presidency to the Rethug.

Remember Florida. Remember Ohio. We have to push as hard as we ever have, no matter who the nominee is.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 03:33 AM

12. Yes, the crazy man-troll would make for an entertaining opponent.

Perhaps they'll put the fecal lube euphemism on the ticket, too. Good times.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 08:26 AM

14. This is why I supported Bachman

Cain, even Perry or Santorrum. Any of them except Romney. Romney is dangerous and could win.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 08:34 AM

16. Newt is a reminder of the worst aspects of the 90s.

That will piss a lot of folks off.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 08:50 AM

17. Totally agree

Been telling my repub friends, (yes, I have them) that if they want a fighting chance to stay away from da grinch.

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 09:06 AM

18. Nothing "Obvious" about it at all. Newt could win, you can bet your ass on it

 

Let me say just one thing, "Citizens United".

Now go ahead and tell me how unlimited money could not changed Newt's image, given nearly a year to accomplish it. Hell, he's already got at least 40% of the vote just for having an R next to his name on the ballot. The sheep will be led and money will lead them. Newt could win a lot easier than any of the other yahoos that want to be at the top of the ticket. Do not forget that he was in fact and in deed the Speaker of the House. He, far better than any of the other clowns, knows how the game is played and rigged. You would be smart to be wary of him, not dismissive.

By the way, you know what I see with every OWS gathering? I see folks who voted for Obama once who won't be doing it again. I might be wrong for a lot of them, but not all. At the moment I'm not sure Obama can be reelected no matter who runs against him.


Edited to corrected a typo - removed the letter "e" from the word "on" in the title changing it from "one" to "on".

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Response to JCMach1 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2011, 09:08 AM

19. I'm starting to think all Repugs are brain damaged.

There's no other explanation for their irrational exuberance over every single candidate except the one who has a real shot at defeating Obama.

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