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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat the Trump poll numbers aren't telling us
I think the poll numbers that have Trump with a 35% favor and a large lead can be misleading. I think that what you see is about the maximum he is going to get. Maybe to 40% but no more. Most Republicans don't like him.
I heard that there are three types of republicans. The Evangelicals, the Established Republicans (Neocons?), and the Fiscal Conservative Social Moderate conservatives. I think Trump has tapped into the Evangelicals and maybe a few Fiscal/Social ones. But he isn't getting the Established and/or most of the fiscal/social crowd. He has tapped the Tea party and some "Libertarians."
As candidates drop out, I think that one of the others will start to catch Trump and eventually overtake him. I question whether it would it be in time? Would Trump have gotten too many delegates from the early states to make it hard to catch? Maybe that is when the bigger states that come later might have more of a say than they traditionally do.
Either way, it has become a very interesting race. In both primaries. Far different that I ever expected six months ago.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)krawhitham
(4,650 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Trump is the GOP nominee.
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)and thus lower the denominator of total votes, and Trump's percentage goes up by math. Then, when he only has opponents who can't go a sentence without a gaffe, like Jeb and his "Asian people" remark, "act of love," common core, and other things he probably shouldn't have said, they'll go to what they see as the lesser of two evils. A PPP poll in NC had Jeb losing badly to Trump in a 2 way. A newer one in NH had Trump beating all of the top other guys by landslides in two way races. Lets be real here. Rubio is going nowhere fast. Also, its pointless to talk hypothetical 2 way races in primaries. Primaries, like almost all US elections, are first-past-the-post. There are no runoffs.
Also, when you're polling 35% in a pool of 17, that's very VERY strong. Lincoln got 39% in an election of 4.
Stargleamer
(1,992 posts)and asks his supporters to support Jeb, then Jeb takes Florida and goes on a winning streak, winning in Missouri and Colorado, and eventually becomes their nominee. John Kasich will also eventually drop out too and endorse Jeb and there's a good chance he'll be Jeb's VP choice. I'm not sure how Hillary can win in Ohio in the General Election; it seems like Jeb might unfortunately be the next president.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)And it won't win them the White House. Yes the pubs can't win without Ohio, but now they also need Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, etc. and it ain't going to happen.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)I thought that was just about the most stupid thing the man could say considering the state he represents and its importance in number of electoral votes.
Sam
Stargleamer
(1,992 posts)but then again if the world made Republicans wouldn't stand a chance. I think they'll consider him a "favorite son" and vote for him. He'll probably choose Kasich as his running mate in order to win in Ohio too.
spinbaby
(15,092 posts)Jeb is just too unenthusiastic and gaff prone as a candidate and has all that family baggage. I think Kasich or Walker will probably be the last standing.
Generic Brad
(14,276 posts)His behavior has guaranteed he will not receive favorable coverage down the road. He will fizzle shortly after South Carolina if he makes it that far.