Did somebody start a prediction on how low McCarthy will survive as speaker.

[Mass]

May be being an empty vessel will help. but given the agitation among the GOP congresspeople, it is not even obvious.

This morning, he was asked what his plans were as speaker concerning policy bills that would pass, he could only say the Highway Bill, and this would be passed with Boehner as speaker. Really?

[HooptieWagon]

1. I don't think Boehners hand-picked successor can get elected...

...unless he gets Dem votes. That's a big 'if'.

[unblock]

3. not sure about that. boehner himself had enough votes.

sure, the tea party wanted him out, but boehner was always able to stitch together a majority for himself. don't see why his successor can't do the same.

yes, he won't have the tea party behind him.
yes, that will create the same dynamic as with boehner.

and so it goes, and so it goes.

[unblock]

2. i can't see him improving the underlying dynamics much.

he'll get a temporary honeymoon of sorts, but pretty quickly thereafter have the same tea party pressures for symbolic/terroristic efforts.

he'll last quite a while i think, i mean, boehner was unpopular and inept and he lasted longer than most might have guessed, mainly because it's not a problem a speaker can really solve. the republicans will continue to have problems of their own making as long as there is fundamental disagreement within their caucus as to strategy, and i don't see this changing without control of the house or possibly the white house changing.

[stevenleser]

4. If he survives 5 months, he will survive until Jan 2017. Focus will be on Prez race.

That's the only reason. If this were Sept 2014, I would say 6-12 months max.