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Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:41 PM

Shit Is About to Get Real in California, El Niño Report Predicts

After four years of drought, Californians are bracing for another potentially destructive weather event: El Niño. Earlier this week, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, released a disaster plan including what to expect from the upcoming rainy season. Here are the key takeaways:

This may be the strongest El Niño on record. Weather reports indicate that this year will be warm and wet—perhaps even more so than the winter of 1997-1998, which is currently the strongest recorded El Niño. That year, California evacuated 100,000 people.

The dry conditions mean more flooding. The lack of soil moisture has made the soil "harden and act like cement," making it, paradoxically, less likely to soak up the rain. The chance of flooding is far higher than usual, especially in the productive farm country of the Central Valley and the surrounding area—including the state's capital. "The primary risk areas are in populated areas mostly notably in Sacramento," the report reads—and because of that, "a major flood situation would have significant impact on the economic, cultural, and political life of California." Additionally, a catastrophic levee failure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta would jeopardize a major source of water for 60 percent of California homes and for a portion of the state's agricultural industry." One in five Californians lives in a flood zone.

Wildfires in the summer mean more landslides in the winter. The wildfire season this year was devastating in California, scorching more than 300,000 acres. Mudslides are common in these scorched areas, called "burn scars," because water quickly runs off and there aren't trees to keep the soil, rocks, and other debris in place. Southern Californians got a little taste of what this might look like when rain led to severe landslides in October.

King Tides, El Niño, and the Blob mean higher sea levels and more potential damage. Sea levels typically rise a few inches during El Niño, but this winter, scientists predict that the giant swath of warm water off the West Coast—dubbed the Blob—will lead to a rise of between 8 and 11 inches. State officials are particularly concerned about the potential damage caused by storms toward the end of both December and January, when the highest tides of the winter, called King Tides, are expected.

The rains may ease the drought but won't solve it. All this water will certainly ease the drought and raise levels in the state's depleted reservoirs. But because the state is so behind on precipitation, it's very unlikely that it will make up for the state's now four-year water deficit.

http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/12/fema-preparing-el-nino-heres-what-californians-can-expect

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Reply Shit Is About to Get Real in California, El Niño Report Predicts (Original post)
fleur-de-lisa Dec 2015 OP
longship Dec 2015 #1
Iliyah Dec 2015 #2
doc03 Dec 2015 #3
fleur-de-lisa Dec 2015 #6
SamKnause Dec 2015 #9
doc03 Dec 2015 #14
Hepburn Dec 2015 #18
doc03 Dec 2015 #25
Hepburn Dec 2015 #44
truegrit44 Dec 2015 #34
Hepburn Dec 2015 #43
TM99 Dec 2015 #26
MeNMyVolt Dec 2015 #16
MissDeeds Dec 2015 #21
Siwsan Dec 2015 #31
NickB79 Dec 2015 #40
LanternWaste Dec 2015 #4
TM99 Dec 2015 #27
Eleanors38 Dec 2015 #47
Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #5
fleur-de-lisa Dec 2015 #8
Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #10
fleur-de-lisa Dec 2015 #49
Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #50
fleur-de-lisa Dec 2015 #52
Iliyah Dec 2015 #11
MADem Dec 2015 #13
Throd Dec 2015 #7
Nailzberg Dec 2015 #12
Iliyah Dec 2015 #15
hedgehog Dec 2015 #17
B2G Dec 2015 #20
El Supremo Dec 2015 #19
dpatbrown Dec 2015 #22
Person 2713 Dec 2015 #37
Hekate Dec 2015 #41
a kennedy Dec 2015 #23
bullwinkle428 Dec 2015 #38
a kennedy Dec 2015 #45
leftyladyfrommo Dec 2015 #24
cherokeeprogressive Dec 2015 #28
jberryhill Dec 2015 #29
smirkymonkey Dec 2015 #30
ghostsinthemachine Dec 2015 #32
L. Coyote Dec 2015 #33
truedelphi Dec 2015 #36
LeftyMom Dec 2015 #51
Hekate Dec 2015 #42
LeftyMom Dec 2015 #48
MissB Dec 2015 #35
Gormy Cuss Dec 2015 #39
LastLiberal in PalmSprings Dec 2015 #46
fleur-de-lisa Dec 2015 #54
valerief Dec 2015 #53

Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:46 PM

1. The Blob eats you alive!!


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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:47 PM

2. Past years our weather experts have basically been off the mark.

Glad they are warning us if the predictions are true.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:47 PM

3. I don't know if it affects the weather in Ohio but we are haveing April

or May weather here. The forsythia and dandalions are blooming and I am going to have to take my snow plow off the tractor and put the mower back on.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:49 PM

6. Weird weather in New Orleans this fall also . . .

We have been relatively dry over the last few months when we normally receive lots of rain. Strange times!

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:53 PM

9. It is currently 63 here in Seaman, Ohio.

I have buds on my lilac bush.

I have wild violets all over the yard and the grass is growing like crazy.

It is suppose to be 67 Saturday and 69 Sunday.

It sure helps out a lot on the heating bills.

Where are you located ???

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Response to SamKnause (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:59 PM

14. Near the great metropolis of St. Clairsville.

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Response to SamKnause (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:25 PM

18. Wow...that is warm for Ohio in December

I grew up in Ohio and way back when, December was snow and ice and more snow and ice. I am originally from the "Great Snow Belt", Akron-Canton area of Ohio.

I am in Long Beach, CA, right now and it is 64 degrees. Not sure what it is at home, but probably about the same temp.

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Response to Hepburn (Reply #18)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:27 PM

25. They are predicting 68 tomarrow and 70 Sunday

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Response to doc03 (Reply #25)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:48 AM

44. OMG...

...I remember as a child not being able to go outside and schools being closed because of the bad weather this time of the year. Wow, 70 degrees in December in Ohio! Warmer in Ohio this coming Sunday than where I am in SoCal!

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Response to Hepburn (Reply #18)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:13 PM

34. Shout out with a Hi to a Long Beach person!

Born and raised in North LB. Been gone and to many other states since then.

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Response to truegrit44 (Reply #34)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:46 AM

43. I was in Long Beach yesterday doing some work in an attorney's office

On Ocean Boulevard, his office is across from City Hall -- absolutely beautiful office in one of the old re-done buildings. I am a retired lawyer and was doing some ghost writing and enjoying the day there. I really enjoy Long Beach. It has become a tourist spot other than the Queen Mary, etc. Some fine restaurants and night spots.

You must be military? Navy maybe?

BTW: Both Long Beach and LA Ports are booming. I come over the Vincent Thomas/Desmond bridges to get into Long Beach. I live north of the LB area, but go there often. Every time I go over the bridges, I see new facilities being built.

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Response to SamKnause (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:45 PM

26. Wow, that is very warm.

 

I went to college in the 80's in Ohio, and December was snowy and quite cold. Winters could be brutal there, I remember.

Y'all are only about 10 degrees cooler than we are here in Phoenix!

That just ain't right!

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:02 PM

16. Same in IL. People on our small lake are fishing.

 

Looks like a sheet of glass, and I swear I've seen this one guy in a row boat off our pier consume a half dozen beers. More power to him.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:45 PM

21. Unseasonably warm here, too

 

I live in Northeast Kansas and it's 65 degrees right now. Tomorrow is forecast to be warmer with a chance of severe thunderstorms. Our flowering trees are budding out and the lawn is about half green.

On Thanksgiving, it was in the upper 60s during the day and we got freezing drizzle in the evening...wickedly weird weather even for Kansas.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:42 PM

31. I noticed some forsythia buds, here in Michigan

We are supposed to be in the mid 60's, on Sunday. I just checked the record high for today, and it was 61. Our average, for this time in December, is 35. I'm not complaining because our last two winters were brutal.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 12:58 AM

40. 45F here in Minneapolis!

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:48 PM

4. Additionally Texas and the Greater Southwest is expected to have a wetter and colder winter

 

Additionally Texas and the Greater Southwest is expected to have a wetter and colder winter than normal, while the northeast and Plains states are expected to be drier and warmer this winter due to the pattern.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-2015-2016-what-to-expect

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Response to LanternWaste (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:46 PM

27. I sure hope we do.

 

Last winter was all too brief and rather dry.

I was running my A/C yesterday.

I would look forward to the cold and wetness. Please!

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Response to LanternWaste (Reply #4)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:33 PM

47. Thank goodness. Some of the bugs were mutating to multi-engine...

 

...and the reservoirs looked like hog wallers.

Good foliage, forbs and grass, for now. Lakes are in fairly good shape.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:49 PM

5. Rained today, but still waiting for Shit to get real.

We will see.

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Response to Agnosticsherbet (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:53 PM

8. I debated whether or not to use that title . . .

"Shit is about to get real", but it is actually the real title of the article. I hope no one is offended by it.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Reply #8)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:57 PM

10. Father of teenage boys and grils. Shit does not offend me.

We have been told repeatedly that this is going to be a Decennial El Nino, perhaps even once in a century.

I am hoping they are right.

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Response to Agnosticsherbet (Reply #10)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:40 PM

49. LOL! I wasn't so worried about the use of 'shit'

As much as the phrase 'shits about to get real'. I live in New Orleans, so I don't take the threat of catostrophic weather lightly, no matter where it is projected.

But your response did make me laugh! Teenagers!

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Reply #49)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:46 PM

50. No, that did ot offend me at all.

It is common slang.

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Response to Agnosticsherbet (Reply #50)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:50 PM

52. Yeah, I hear you

But poutrage is all the fashion. It doesn't take much to set some people off.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Reply #8)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:57 PM

11. Nah, appreciate the information

and thank you.

I'm in the county of Los Angeles area - South Bay. It rained last night and early this morning. Strong winds right now.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Reply #8)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:58 PM

13. I think it's an apt descriptor!

Anyone who is "offended" would do well to click the link before they yell at you. It's always a good idea to check for context before deploying 'umbrage.'

They can write a sternly worded letter to Mother Jones, if they'd like...

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:50 PM

7. Bring it.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:57 PM

12. No kidding. It just rained for a few minutes here.

And I just washed the car.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:02 PM

15. Oh, hubby and his side of the family are from Hammond and New Orleans

my side is from Shreveport.

Who dat Saints!


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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:12 PM

17. Meanwhile, in Buffalo......

"The last time it went so late in the season with no measurable snow was 1899"

http://time.com/4139898/snow-buffalo-record/

Every day without snow is setting a new record.

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Response to hedgehog (Reply #17)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:29 PM

20. It's coming. El Nino typically causes warm Decembers.

 

Enjoy it while it lasts...

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:28 PM

19. Doomed!

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:02 PM

22. I hope it's not shit,

 

because I live in Sacramento. But yes, the newspapers have carried a lot of articles in regards to El Nino. I hope these scientist are right but I'll believe it when I see it. Some of the talk includes wishful thinking, but who knows. There have already been politicians (GOP of course) and church folks, blamed the drought on Obama, so I'm sure Fox will jump on it soon.

We've had to ration our water, so I let my lawns die. Although you can drive through the rich areas and see many, many very green lawns. I've also heard several times that it would likely hit the southern part of the state.

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Response to dpatbrown (Reply #22)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:37 PM

37. Wait-Obama caused the 4 yr drought? He is so powerful! I wonder what other plagues he has up

his omnipotent sleeve.....

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Response to Person 2713 (Reply #37)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 01:47 AM

41. Frogs, flies, boils...

That kind of thing. Just call him Moses.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:11 PM

23. Area golfers hit the links in mid-December......



HOLMEN, Wis. (WKBT) -
Many skiers and snowmobilers are discouraged by the lack of snow in our area right now, but not everyone is disappointed in this weather.

Golfers were out in full force Thursday at Drugan's Castle Mound in Holmen.

One golfer we spoke with has been golfing for more than 40 years and says he has never been golfing this late in the year, but is enjoying the extended season.

"The course is in very good shape. The greens are a little slower. I don't think they've been cut for a month, but that's understandable when they had snow on them.... yeah," said golfer Monte Jacobson.

Every golf cart was out on the course at Drugan's.

The manager says they will stay open as long as the weather permits and it doesn't damage the course.

http://www.news8000.com/news/area-golfers-hit-the-links-in-middecember/36908312

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #23)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 11:17 PM

38. Planning on playing tomorrow in Iowa!

Temperatures pushing 60 degrees.

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Response to bullwinkle428 (Reply #38)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 11:28 AM

45. Nuts ain't it??

Am hoping that in July and August it isn't over a hundred. This isn't right.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:24 PM

24. It's too warm in KC, too.

Extended forcast shows really good, warmer weather into January. Some rain but nothing awful.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:54 PM

28. Snowed like mad for a few hours in the San Bernardino Mountains this morning/afternoon.

 

I love it.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:06 PM

29. Good. I, for one, am tired of the fake shit

 

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:21 PM

30. It has been in the mid 50's here in Boston and is supposed to hit

 

around 60 tomorrow. It doesn't feel like Christmas at all.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:04 PM

32. El nino=El greenio!

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:10 PM

33. " One in five Californians lives in a flood zone." That's thinking ahead!

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Response to L. Coyote (Reply #33)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 09:58 PM

36. The levee system around the Sacramento area has been

In much need of shoring up.

I don't now if they have made sufficient headway in the repairs. But should any of the levees go, it will be Katrina all over again!

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Response to truedelphi (Reply #36)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:49 PM

51. Upgrades are nearly continuous, so it really depends on which system you mean?

The Natomas upgrades are freshly completed. The new project to upgrade protection for the Pocket and Land Park was just authorized this summer.

But the biggest vulnerabilities aren't in the public levee system, they're in the landowner maintained levees in the delta. A lot of those are just packed earth to begin with and tree roots and animal burrows render them useless if they're not maintained.

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Response to L. Coyote (Reply #33)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 01:49 AM

42. All the major rivers of the Midwest are a gigantic flood zone, and my tax dollars have helped...

...their people rebuild over and over and over again.

Thanks,

Another Californio

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Response to L. Coyote (Reply #33)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:37 PM

48. Yep, we should up and leave the most fertile farmland on earth. Good thinking.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:27 PM

35. We had 2.69" the other day.

And while it's rather unpleasant, our soils can pretty much handle it.

(Except for a few landslides here and there, including one on I-5 north that blocked all three lanes for a day.)

Just no earthquakes right now, m'kay? Because liquefaction of soils really would be a bummer for much of Portland Oregon.

I have a feeling we've been getting the rain systems intended for California.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 12:29 AM

39. We're getting early rains ahead of the El Nino, which will help with item 2

The soil is becoming friable again and will absorb more water at the front end of the El Nino so there should be less flooding. The rest of the dire predictions, alas, are still at play.

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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 03:49 PM

46. My brother-in-law is a team leader for L.A. Emergency Response

and this winter scares the shit out of him. "Get ready for a 500-year winter," he told us as he made sure we have a month's worth of supplies on hand.

We live east of L.A. and on the other side of the mountains from the city, so much of the bad weather will miss us or be lessened by the time it gets to us. The last time we had a bad winter, however, we were snowed in for eight days, so all it takes is one storm to get past Mt. San Gorgonio and we're screwed.

Fortunately, being prepared for El Ninõ also prepares us for earthquakes and the CDC emergency plan for a Zombie Apocalypse.

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Response to LastLiberal in PalmSprings (Reply #46)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 05:51 PM

54. I agree with your B-I-L.

With all the weird weather going on, who the f*** knows what will happen?

I live in New Orleans. I take all warnings of severe weather seriously.

My hope is that California gets a lot of rain in small doses, so the parched soil can absorb it without flooding.

My mom is from Sacrememto and all of her relatives are in the area. Sending good thoughts to you and your family!



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Response to fleur-de-lisa (Original post)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 05:38 PM

53. Yes, but fossil fuel barons are getting richer and richer! Yay!!! That's all that matters

in the world, apparently.

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