Who do you think will win (not who do you want to) in November? Why?

[boxman15]

President Obama or Mitt Romney? Why?

I'm pretty confident Obama will win because of the Electoral College. I'm having a tough time seeing how Romney wins there. The national polls might be close, but Obama has advantages in most swing states and can afford to lose a few, unlike Romney. I see him winning by at least 60 electoral votes, possibly more.

I also think that Obama will pull ahead of Romney nationally after the debates, which will help him. These doom and gloom "Obama is done" forecasts are ridiculous, just like they were last fall and just like the "Romney is done" forecasts in the winter.

It's gonna be a tough election, but Obama has several advantages.

[Life Long Dem]

1. Obama

One week Republican's can't get behind Mitt. The next week the media wants a close race for ratings. I believe we are seeing the media trying to make this into a close race. But come on... a week ago Repub's couldn't even get behind Romney.

[1-Old-Man]

2. Obama - the reason is simple, there are more of us than there are of them.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. The odds seem to favor President Obama

As you suggested, he has lot more "paths to victory" + the natural advantages of incumbency + he is more personally likable and "average-seeming" than Romney. Plus, so far all Romney has right now is the "anti-Obama" vote. He will need to attract other people not quite so disposed to hating Obama into his fold. Can he do it? I'm not seeing how, at least at the moment. I personally can't wait for the debates to start between the two of them.

[Dawson Leery]

9. Though the economy is not in great condition,

the auto bailout saved the American auto industry and has improved the economy in the industrial states. Obama is clearly favored in these areas.

[still_one]

4. The media was pretty much parroting the repuke talking points after the employment figures yesterday

I wish I could be as optimistic as you are, but the air time that is being given the birthers, and the constant trashing that the President is getting, along with the generally stupidity of the general public, and the combined effort of the republicans to suppress the vote, I don't think so

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. I think that the debates will help President Obama

The right-wing is good at promoting false images of people, esp. President Obama (i.e. Bill Maher's "Barack X&quot but when most people see President Obama in action, they tend to support him. The contrast between President Obama and Mitt Romney, when you think about it, is pretty extreme IMHO. I think that the debates will help President Obama draw that contrast between the two of them, especially when they start talking about economic fairness. It's hard to imagine that most average people actually identify with Romney, who, quite dramatically, represents (and would be expected to fight for) the 1%. He has not done ANYTHING so far to discourage such a notion IMHO.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. Obama in a walk. Romney's base is older white males.

And, there aren't nearly enough of them to overcome Obama's lead in all the other demographics.

[april]

7. Obama..the rep can spend all the money they want but O will win!

[rug]

8. Obama. All evidence notwithstanding, we're not that stupid.

[Dawson Leery]

10. kick

[Chan790]

11. Obama.

Why? Because I'm a political scientist by education and I deal in facts. The fact is absent a catastrophic shake-up event like a terror attack or a Wall St. collapse that causes massive voter-shifts in several states, there is no path to victory for Mitt Romney; none that are realistic.

Romney isn't going to win OH, he might get close but he won't win. He's trailing in CO. Presuming Obama can hold solid but not large leads in WI and NV and adding that to the safe Democratic votes, we're at 284EC votes right there and it's all over but the crying for Willard "Mitt" Romney. Obama is also leading in IA, VA and FL, tied in NC and narrowly losing MO. To say Mitt has an uphill race is a lie, he needs to radically rebrand his position and the GOP platform to be viable; he can't rebrand his position and the platform because he's already flip-flop Mittens and he can't escape that frame.

It's a race of artifice. It's bad for news-media to admit this early that the Presidential election is not competitive. The race is not competitive. Romney is neither enough of a gambler or smart enough to make the moves that could put him back into the race.

[Spirochete]

12. Obama will win

The new issue of Guns and Ammo will come out on November 6th, and Romney's base will all stay home masturbating.