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Marzupialis

(398 posts) Sun Jun 3, 2012, 09:17 PM Jun 2012

Expert: Coin flip as accurate as June polls

In the last 8 elections, Whoever was ahead in the popular vote in Gallup polls in June went on to win only twice.
Political expert Larry Sabato has more details and concludes that generally speaking, a coin flip is as accurate as June polls: Link.

5 replies

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Expert: Coin flip as accurate as June polls (Original Post) Marzupialis Jun 2012 OP

On the other side of the coin.... BlueDemKev Jun 2012 #1

1940 former9thward Jun 2012 #2

Oh, just 72 years ago? BlueDemKev Jun 2012 #5

not to worry. in the major parties, black nominees are undefeated in presidential elections. unblock Jun 2012 #3

They shouldn't be accurate or predictive to begin with JonLP24 Jun 2012 #4

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

1. On the other side of the coin....

Reply to Marzupialis (Original post)

Sun Jun 3, 2012, 09:21 PM

Jun 2012

....when was the last time an incumbent was re-elected when the unemployment rate was over 8%?

former9thward

(32,003 posts)

2. 1940

Reply to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 3, 2012, 09:30 PM

Jun 2012

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

5. Oh, just 72 years ago?

Reply to former9thward (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 4, 2012, 09:31 AM

Jun 2012

My memory is SO short.

unblock

(52,220 posts)

3. not to worry. in the major parties, black nominees are undefeated in presidential elections.

Reply to BlueDemKev (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 3, 2012, 11:36 PM

Jun 2012

100%.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)

4. They shouldn't be accurate or predictive to begin with

Reply to Marzupialis (Original post)

Sun Jun 3, 2012, 11:38 PM

Jun 2012

June polls reflect current mood and current mood only. A lot can change from here to November.

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