Hillary Clinton will find it harder to crush Donald Trump than she thinks

[bemildred]

I'm guessing this is GD, not GDP, hope I'm right. I think he makes a point or two.


In America last week I sought to work out who hates Donald Trump more: Democrats or Republicans. The answer, I soon realised, was Republicans; his own party is in a seething panic about what appears to be the probability of his becoming their presidential candidate.

A group of them, whose spokesman is a failed presidential candidate from the last two elections, Mitt Romney, are trying to rally support and raise money to stop him. The problem is that they don’t have a plan, and they fail to see what their party is now really like. They also fail to see what an unhappy, troubled, angry country America now is, and how Americans feel their mainstream politicians have not responded to their fears.

By March 15 there will have been eight more Republican primaries, and Trump leads in the polls in almost all of them – including Florida, where he is 20 points ahead of Marco Rubio, whose home state it is. In 10 days, any doubt about Mr Trump’s candidacy could well be eliminated, as he stays on course to secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to be nominated.

There is talk – coming from Mr Romney’s camp – of a “brokered convention” – an attempt to re-open the selection process at Cleveland in July when the formal nomination is made. And although the three other candidates in last Thursday’s debate all promised to support him if he won the nomination, there is also talk of a “third party” of moderate Republicans taking Mr Trump on. If the Republican party wants to commit suicide, that would be an ideal way to it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12183862/Hillary-Clinton-will-find-it-harder-to-crush-Donald-Trump-than-she-thinks.html

[kentuck]

1. There is no guarantee...

that Trump will not draw a fair share of Democrats and Independents to his campaign. He could win.

[bemildred]

3. I think the point is we have low voter turnout here.

And that's no accident.
That low voter turnout represents an opportunity for any politican who comes along and wants to address their concerns and needs.
In Britain that was Mr. Corbyn.
Here it seems to be Mr. Trump.
Somehow that seems suitable to me, that they get Mr. Corbyn, who looks quite British, and we get Trump who looks VERY American to me.

[Jim__]

2. Also by Simon Heffer:

How seven years of Obama created Trump
America has been run for nearly a decade by a clever incompetent. It's hardly surprising that the voters are revolting

An excerpt:

The morning after Barack Obama was elected, in November 2008, I put the television on in my hotel room in New York to watch the reaction. Fox News was putting on a brave face, though the sourness and anger were barely contained: but MSNBC, an avowedly liberal network, was in a state of almost convulsive ecstasy.

Obama is clever and has a way with words: but his words contained little

As dawn broke a woman, interviewed outside her run-down house somewhere upstate, shed tears while telling an interviewer what the victory meant for her. “I now know,” she sobbed, “that my house won’t be foreclosed on.” I hope she was right: but the evidence of the seven years since Obama the miracle-worker took office suggests she may have been disappointed.

America was angry after two terms of George W Bush. Though he could not stand, his party’s candidate would be punished for how Mr Bush and the lunatics around him had made America an international pariah. The financial crisis of 2008 – the collapse of Lehmann Brothers came between the conventions and polling day – was the last straw.

...

He may not be the most insightful source.

[bemildred]

6. He does like to lash about, doesn't he?

I think he is much too hard on Obama, but I don't think he really understands US politics that well. On the other hand I thought his outsiders view of what is going on here was interesting.

[B2G]

11. I think that assessment is spot on. nt

[Jim__]

15. It's not. - n/t

[B2G]

16. In what way?

Have you looked at black unemployment rates lately?

And the stuff about Bush is all true.

[Jim__]

19. To begin with, Trump ran for the presidential nomination in 2000.

So, nothing Obama did after 2008 could have created Donald Trump.

[B2G]

20. I think the author is talking about THIS election cycle

not 2000.

[Jim__]

22. His article refers back to at least 1993.

Since George H.W. Bush left office in 1993 America has been ruled by a spin-obsessed sex addict, a dangerous halfwit and a clever incompetent. They all bore the imprimatur of their respective party machines. For much of America, Barack Obama is the last straw. He is the creator of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. If one of them becomes president – and I wouldn’t rule it out – and the world doesn’t like it, they know whom to blame.

[braddy]

26. After that run for the Reform party, Trump switched

to the Democratic party in 2001, and stayed there until 2009.

[Jim__]

27. And?

[braddy]

29. What do you mean?

[pampango]

4. I hope neither Hillary nor Bernie think it will be easy to crush Trump. Underestimating an opponent

like Trump would be a serious mistake. His form of brash authoritarianism ('blow things up and worry about the consequences later') appeals to more than just his conservative base.

We should not underestimate his populist appeal that goes beyond his overt racist and xenophobic rhetoric and will appeal to more than just his RW base.

[kentuck]

5. I agree.

There are a good number of Democrats that agree with him, I am sure.

[bemildred]

7. Yes, I agree. nt

[spanone]

8. how do they know what she thinks?

[bemildred]

10. He doesn't, clearly. On the other hand, I have seen the idea well scattered about.

But I'm willing to condede it doesn't seem like Ms Clinton to be careless, so ...

I think the question most interesting here is how easy will it be to defeat Mr. Trump? I know enough US History to know that such political insurgencies are common, successful ones much less so. That makes Mr. Trump's run very interesting, but I don't really know how worried I should be. Part of me say he can't get enough support, and then I look at the situation here and our past, and I'm not sure any more.

[earthside]

9. I just heard a major Democratic strategist in Colorado ...

... say the same thing on a radio interview here.

If Trump runs a good campaign, he may be very hard to defeat.

Clinton is such a flaw candidate and she simple cannot empathize with working and middle class Americans who are still feeling very economically distressed.

Trump is a demagogue, but there is no doubt he has figured out a way to identify with voters who feel like the American dream is slipping away from them.

This Democratic Party strategist also made an observation about Clinton's problem with young people and why she doesn't connect with them "... they've read about her in their high school history book." He predicted that young people staying home could be a very big problem for Democrats ... indeed, since Clinton does not excite most people, turnout in general could be a problem for Democrats.

Not to say that there isn't big trouble in the Repuglican Party, but thinking that Clinton (or Sanders) is a slam-dunk against Trump is a dangerous notion.

[bemildred]

12. That's kind of where I come down.

I think they need to make concessions now if they want to defeat Trump. Back off with the grinding of the poor's noses in the dirt for a while. Offer some "free stuff".

I thought the point about his being an accomplished standup comedian was well aimed too, what he does is improv all the way, and that's how it's taken.

[Adrahil]

21. And Trump CAN sympathize with middle class Americans?

In the GE, the Dems will not pussy-foot around this shitstain. We will point out his massive use of outsourcing and illegal immigrant labor. We will point out his scams, schemes, abuse of bankruptcy law, mistreatment of workers, his racism, his sexism. We aren;t worried about pandering to the low-lifes that form the core of his support.

[A Little Weird]

13. I don't agree with everything in this article

But I think he's right that there is a strong anti-establishment sentiment in this country. That's one of the reasons that I think Bernie has a better chance of winning the general.

[bemildred]

14. Yes.

I really don't know what to think there, but I'm less worried about it, I'm not sure which of Mr. Sanders or Ms Clinton would serve best in the end, but I don't think either will do "stupid stuff", and I'm pretty sure Trump will.

[FLPanhandle]

17. Disagree.

Trump has no chance in the general election against either Hillary or Bernie. None.

[flamingdem]

18. I agree, turnout will be massive in November by Dems esp. Latinos nt

[Amishman]

23. Only if Bernie gets our nomination

If it does work out to Clinton vs Trump, we will have months of mud flinging and intensely negative campaigning. The amount of ad buying and money poured into publicity would be at a level never before seen in US politics. Both have enough skeletons in their closets to fill a cemetery, so there will be substance to the attack ads.

This will completely frustrate and turn off all but the most stalwart supporters. Low turnout and high 3rd party and/or frustration write-ins.

We need an inspirational nominee to drive turnout, this is why we did well in 2008 and 2012. Without that we end up with the low turnouts that have handed congress back to the circus.

[Egnever]

24. Pretty hard to wrap your head around that conclusion

Trump is splintering the republican party but he will be hard to beat?

How does that work exactly? Who is it that will be voting for him other than the 35% of the republican party he has had since the beginning. That 35% can not carry an election.

[bemildred]

25. He is going to own the Republican Party with that 35% of the votes.

And that will be a whole new ball game.

It's people who think it can't happen that worry me, that's how we got this far with him, people thinking he's ridiculous. He is, that won't stop him. Ridiculous has been the norm for decades.

[Egnever]

28. Once again

35% of the republican party does not win you a general election and the other 65% are horrified at the thought of him... Who is going to turn out for him?

Owning the republican party would be more than 50%

It's the people who can't figure out the basic math that worry me. The guy is being torpedoed by his own party yet somehow there is this mass of people just waiting to vote for him in the general. It is nonsense.

[KoKo]

30. Interesting read...

We have a friend in Germany who e-mailed us after the back and forth regarding who has the "largest hands/body part" episode between Trump and Rubio. He asked "When are you going to come to Germany...It is much better here because we've worked beyond our past--our doors are open to you." He knows we are Bernie supporters and has been very disturbed by what he is seeing with our election. He thinks we won't fit in with the New America.

I thought Heffer has a droll view... and interesting insights. Had a few problems with Thatcher and Reagan quotes but it was a good read.

[bemildred]

33. Yes, I thought he was amusing and interesting, the outside view,

which you mention from your German friend too.

[juxtaposed]

31. HRC will have her ass handed to her by trump.. It will be over in a week.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

32. Hillary will beat drumpt like a,

rented mule!