Here’s how likely it is that the GOP presidential race will come down to California

[WhiteTara]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/18/heres-how-likely-it-is-that-the-gop-presidential-race-will-come-down-to-california/

There have been so many Super Tuesdays so far this election cycle that we’ve already lost count. But the Super-est of the Super Tuesdays is very likely to be June 7, which happens to be the final day of the Republican presidential nominating contest.

That’s because Donald Trump is right on the cusp of accumulating the majority of delegates he needs to win the Republican nomination outright — avoiding a potentially messy convention fight in which the party tries to wrest the nomination from his definitely not-small-at-all hands.

But he’s pretty unlikely to get those 1,237 delegates he needs before June 7, when California is the big prize and five other states also vote.

How unlikely?

We crunched the numbers and figured out that Trump would need to win a whopping 74 percent of the available delegates prior to that date. That includes the 652 delegates at stake in contests held between now and June 7, as well as the 104 delegates that haven't yet been awarded from states that have already voted. Trump would need to win 559 of those 756 delegates.

[SheilaT]

1. Aren't all of the GOP contests winner take all at this point?

In which case, he doesn't need to win big in any state, just do better than anyone else who still might be in.

[Agnosticsherbet]

2. All of them are not proportional. I've linked a list below.

EXCLUSIVE: TIME Guide to Official 2016 Republican Nomination Calendar
March 19, 2016 (9 bound delegates)

U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all
March 22, 2016 (107 bound delegates)

American Samoa Convention (9) — Delegates elected and bound at convention
Arizona Primary (58) — Winner take all
Utah Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Spring Break

After a month of intense voting, the calendar slows with just 134 delegates bound over the course of a month. This could sap candidates’ momentum, either elongating a close race for the nomination or forcing underperforming and underfunded candidates from the race before the home stretch.

April 5, 2016 (42 bound)

Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district
April 9, 2016 (0 bound)

Colorado Convention (37/0) — Delegates elected at district and state conventions, and bound as they declare
April 19, 2016 (92 bound)

New York Primary (95/92) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)

More moderate Republicans have an opportunity to be heard at a critical juncture.

Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district
Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all
Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all
Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound
Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold
May 3, 2016 (54 bound)

Indiana Primary (57/54) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district
May 10, 2016 (67 bound)

Nebraska Primary (36) — Winner take all
West Virginia Primary (34/31) — Delegates elected directly on ballot and bound by preference
May 17, 2016 (25 bound)

Oregon Primary (28/25) — Proportional
May 27, 2016 (41 bound)

Washington Primary (44/41) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Last Call: June 7, 2016 (294 bound)

The final primary day, with a large crop of delegates up for grabs.

California Primary (172/169) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district
Montana Primary (27) — Winner take all
New Jersey Primary (51) — Winner take all
New Mexico Primary (24/21) — Proportional with 15% threshold
South Dakota Primary (29/26) — Winner take all

[Brother Buzz]

3. California has an Open Primary, baby

The crossover vote could be a factor (assuming Clinton has locked up the Democratic race), but I doubt it will amount to much unless it turns out to be extremely close, come June. California's Republican winner-take-all rule is a tough nut to crack.