National Memo: 5 Reasons Trump Won’t Win In November - And One Way He Could

[pampango]

Let’s start by clearing up the dumb misconceptions about the 2016 presidential election.

Republican voters aren’t significantly angrier than they normally are. Primary turnout is in no way clearly predictive of general election success. Donald Trump hasn’t brought hordes of new people to the Republican Party. He’s not any more unpopular with Republican voters than Mitt Romney was at this stage in the 2012 election. He’s more blatantly racist, xenophobic and misogynistic than his primary foes, but his core policy views are nearly identical to all the other Republican candidates. For instance, he wants to make the rich richer, denies climate science and is promising to appoint ultra-conservatives to the Supreme Court.

Here are five reasons why Donald Trump won’t be the next president of the United States. And, to combat complacence, an additional pitch on why you should still be working your ass off to defeat him.

1. There aren’t enough angry white men in America to make Donald Trump president.
2. The economy indicates a Democratic victory.
3. Trump’s brilliant primary plan is a brilliant plan to lose the general election.
4. Trump puts new states in play — for Democrats.
5. Negative partisanship.

Here’s how Trump wins: He keeps exceeding expectations.

http://www.nationalmemo.com/5-reasons-trump-wont-win-in-november-and-one-way-he-could/

[Dawgs]

1. I disagree all five of those points.

1. There aren’t enough angry white men in America to make Donald Trump president.
Republicans (all of them) will happily vote for Trump over any Dem in the GE. They will come home. They always do.

2. The economy indicates a Democratic victory.
To most people the economy sucks.

3. Trump’s brilliant primary plan is a brilliant plan to lose the general election.
Trump is great at manipulating the media. He will also shift to the left, especially if Hillary is the nominee. He will win a majority of Indys and almost all Republicans.

4. Trump puts new states in play — for Democrats.
See 1-3.

5. Negative partisanship.
Young people don't vote and the majority of the AA vote will come from states that R's will win easily.

Add those to the fact that Republicans are destroying the Democrats in voter turnout and it will make for a long GE and next four years.

[longship]

2. He will win a majority of Indys and almost all Republicans.

And nearly all the polls show that Hillary Clinton loses the independents, which means that the GOP wins in November. Those same polls show that Bernie Sanders wins.

QED.

[edhopper]

4. Not against Trump she doesn't

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Misreading the electorate in hysterical ways