I Don't Buy It.

[mfcorey1]

I don't care how wide the spending gap is in a campaign, election results do not swing 7-12 points from a broad array of polling data taken the day before the election in a hotly-contested race where the guy facing recall is a man who has repeatedly and criminally interfered in democratic processes. It just does not happen - elections do not radically exceed the margin of error in consistent polling results just days before. Scott Walker and his people gave new meaning to the word "brazen" long before this election, so until someone I trust tells me this result came anywhere near to the actual will of the people of Wisconsin, I withhold conceding anything. Barrett doesn't have that luxury, but I do - and so do the rest of us. Badgers, you have your work cut out for you: Neither of the two possibilities is exactly encouraging, but you need to know what kind of situation you face in order to know how to proceed. I make no accusations at this point, but when something smells this bad on its face, the jury is out until there's been time to look into the details of events.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/06/1097759/-I-Don-t-Buy-It

[PatSeg]

1. Yep

After Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, it is hard to trust any republican won election these days. There is a smell in the air and I've smelled it before.

[elleng]

2. I don't get this skepticism.

Polls went largely Walker over Barrett, as I recall. Our optimism was based on interpretations of enthusiasm/GOTV around election day.

[sybylla]

6. I don't either.

I mean to say that I'm all on board with the black box voting thing, but we don't have that in WI. The State Supreme Court recount a year ago proved it. At this early hour, there's no reason to suspect either in turn out or exit polls to suggest there were any shenanigans.

In fact, the Barrett campaign put out a statement over the weekend that their polling showed they were close but turnout was going to make all the difference.

And it did, as the final results showed. Over the next few days, there will be plenty of analysis of the turnout versus results.

We are a very polarized state. We continue to be.

With a 30-1 spending margin, how could this have turned out any differently? We were all hoping it would, but in the real world, David rarely beats Goliath.

[robinlynne]

9. you've got to be kidding!!! the recount was a sham! there were 30,000 pages of documented evidence

of problems which went completely ignored. there were photos of broken seals on ballot bags. That recount was proof of the opposite, if anything.

[sybylla]

11. I participated in the recount as an observer. I know observers who were in other counties.

What you're talking about is one county with one fucked up clerk. Despite the initial obstruction efforts of a few unfriendly clerks, the rest of the state proved to be in line with the original results (with minor poll worker mistakes accounting for changes in the final tallies). The recall was overseen by teams of lawyers at the ready either in person or on the phone and hundreds of volunteers who watched the proceedings, challenged them where necessary and collected evidence. Everything that was questionable in the least was forwarded to the Kloppenburg campaign. With the exception of Waukesha County, there was no obviously actionable material.

Seems to me the recount proved exactly what you're saying. Waukesha county voters along with the rest of the state were fucked over by Kathy Nicholaus. The sham was that the GAB refused to act on it.

That the facts don't fit so nicely into some people's agendas is not my problem.

[robinlynne]

12. Kloppenburg herself, after the reocunt, stated that the recount was evidence that the election syste

system is a train wreck. (not exact words.) Remember?

[sybylla]

15. Yeah, she said the recount pointed out problems with the process.

She didn't say it produced clear evidence of election fraud, with the possible exception of Waukesha county.

Look, I'm a black box voting opponent since the original group's inception. That's why I've been involved in observing recounts in my county and neighboring counties on several occasions. It's why I've signed up to work at the polls, it's why I've encouraged friends to work at the polls. I'd be the first person crying foul on election fraud if there were clear evidence of it.

Poorly sealed ballot bags aren't evidence of wrong-doing any more than they are evidence of an inability to secure a ballot bag properly.

I think when we start seeing election fraud in everything, it diminishes the impact of the real alarms that need to be sounded. We have to learn to keep our powder dry for the real fights.

[robinlynne]

17. I disagree. the real fights have happened repeatedly. The powder was kept dry.

2000 huge. REAL fight.
2004 huge. REAL fight.
2008 huge. REAL fight. (13 Dem Congressman found the vote counting process to be wrong in their districts, and challenged the count . the Dem Congress did not act or investigate.)

[robinlynne]

10. Turnout varied from 90% to 119%. So if turnout made the difference...

[Lionessa]

3. Absolutely, but Barrett conceded so it's a done deal.

[drm604]

4. I agree that it's a done deal, but not because Barrett conceded.

Concessions have no legal force.

[99th_Monkey]

5. This reeks in epic proportions.

Between e-voting functioning as an unaccountable wholly-owned
subsidiary of the GOP, plus the massive purging of Democratic
voters from the voter rolls, on top of the post-Citizens United
SCOTUS ruling, it couldn't be clearer what is going on here.

"THE GAME IS RIGGED FOLKS" ~G. Carlin

Creeping Fascism's boiling frogs must rise up soon, en mass.

or it's "GAME OVER".

The Evil Empire Wins.

[liberalla]

7. I don't feel right about it either. The exit polls...

The discrepancy between the exit polling and the vote count is suspect. Almost every news outlet was calling it "essentially tied."

"Too close to call"

I don't know how they would do it (fix it), but they're highly motivated and they've had months to figure something out and come up with a plan.

And that black cloud Kathy Nickolaus was still hovering...

[SunsetDreams]

8. K&R

You make some great points.

[cthulu2016]

13. Well, if you only believe the polls you want to believe...

...this sort of thing happens. And if we make up polls it will happen even more often.

"election results do not swing 7-12 points from a broad array of polling data taken the day before the election"

Well, that didn't happen, so what's the point?

Seriously... which poll had Walker down by 5%? None. Ever. So what 12 point swing was there for Walker to win by 7%? (Or going the other way, which poll had him up by 19%?)

Just because one is sure of the worthiness of the cause does not justify just making stuff up.

[tritsofme]

14. The RCP polling average gave Walker a 6.7% lead, and he won by 6.9%. What polling data is this guy

looking at?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_recall_election_walker_vs_barrett-3056.html

You would have had to actively ignore the polls to be very surprised by the result.

[MineralMan]

16. Almost all the polls prior to the election showed Walker winning.

Margins in most of those polls ranged between 4-7%. And that's how the election went. Which polls are you talking about?