WaPo: These striking numbers show just how fast we’re switching off coal

[pampango]

Last week, even as Peabody Energy, the world’s biggest coal company, declared bankruptcy, the U.S. government issued striking figures showing how much coal production in the United States has declined in the space of just a few years.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, stated that the U.S. production of coal last month totaled 52 million short tons — which was a 36 percent decrease from levels seen just one year earlier, in March of 2015.

The U.S. produced 999.7 million short tons of coal in 2014, according to EIA, the large majority of which was consumed to generate electricity right here at home. However, in 2015 that dipped to 895.4 million short tons, a drop of more than 100 million tons in just one year. The drop, incidentally, was considerably more than EIA itself had forecast around this time a year ago, when the agency had expected a decline to 926 million tons.

So there was a big decline in U.S. coal production when comparing 2014 with 2015 — but looking at 2016, the drop is expected to be even bigger. “Forecast coal production is expected to decrease by 143 [million short tons] (16%) in 2016, which would be the largest annual percentage decline since 1958,” says EIA. Total production is forecast to just be 752.5 million short tons, or an over 200 million ton decline from the level just 2 years ago.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

The major contributor of lower coal production in the most recent STEO compared with a year ago is the increase in natural gas used in the electric power sector, mainly because of lower natural gas prices. ... The decline of coal burning has contributed to a reduction of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions — but there are arguments that the rise of gas has actually not been all to the good.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/19/these-striking-numbers-show-just-how-fast-were-switching-off-coal/

[Buzz Clik]

1. This quote:

The major contributor of lower coal production in the most recent STEO compared with a year ago is the increase in natural gas used in the electric power sector, mainly because of lower natural gas prices.

No kidding.

[hobbit709]

2. Burning carbon in any form creates CO2.

[IDemo]

4. True, but the CO2 output per kilowatt hour of coal is significantly higher than other fuels

Any decline in its use is a positive.

[NickB79]

5. But fracking gas leaks methane horribly

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/17/3750240/methane-leaks-erase-climate-fracked-gas/

Fracking is not good for the climate. Or, to put it a tad more scientifically, “By The Time Natural Gas Has A Net Climate Benefit You’ll Likely Be Dead And The Climate Ruined,” as I wrote two years ago.

New satellite data and surface observations analyzed by Harvard researchers confirm previous data and observations: U.S. methane emissions are considerably higher than the official numbers from the EPA. Significantly, the EPA numbers are mostly based on industry-provided estimates, not actual measurements.

While this new study doesn’t attribute a specific source to the remarkable 30 percent increase in U.S. methane emissions from 2002–2014, many other studies have identified the source of those emissions as leakage of methane from the natural gas production and delivery system.

The central problem for the climate is that natural gas is mostly methane (CH4), a super-potent greenhouse gas, which traps 86 times as much heat as CO2 over a 20-year period. That’s why many studies find that even a very small leakage rate can have a large climate impact — enough to gut the entire benefit of switching from coal-fired power to gas for a long, long time.

[hobbit709]

6. If you burn twice as much methane, net gain is the same.

[Bucky]

3. Good news but a rational society would add job programs to WV & KY

People depend on coal for work & livelihood. Of per policy is to shift off of coal we should help retain those who have spent their lives planning on working in that field.

[TransitJohn]

9. Wyoming.

Produces 40% of the country's coal.

[karadax]

10. The job losses will likely go unreported / unnoticed.

I agree that something should be done to help these people retrain and continue to provide for their families. Retraining likely means relocation too. When your family roots are planted so firmly in a region / trade is it easy to just up and leave ? Many people will likely face tough times because they just can't leave.

[daleanime]

12. Dealing with an increasingly unemployed/underemployed population.....

will be just as much part of the future, as dealing with Climate change.

[gratuitous]

21. Yeah, but that's not the United States

Our primary concern as expressed by our elected government officials is how we can soften the blow for the likes of Don Blankenship.

[Sunlei]

7. How much coal does America export to other countries for them to burn? wish we could help those

countries more, help get off coal burning to a cleaner fuel.

[pampango]

8. Apparently about 8% of our production in 2015. Coal exports were down 24% from 2014

http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pdf

[Sunlei]

14. Thank you, for posting the pdf, that answered my question.

Surprised to see Netherlands, Japan and Brazil so import coal dependent.

[Cassiopeia]

16. First, NG is not cleaner.

Second, that's exactly what Hillary and Obama have done by promoting tracking around the globe.

[Sunlei]

17. Not just what's 'cleaner when it burns' , blacklung, coal dust explosions, removing mountians,

piles of mining waste everywhere, mine 'disasters', 3rd world people burning coal for cooking, transport costs & damages for tons of coal rock.

[Cassiopeia]

20. Tap water that catches fire.

An explosion in the number of earthquakes. Methane leaks that never end that are a far more dangerous greenhouse gas.....

Its all ugly, but swapping one dirty fuel for another isn't a solution.

[Sunlei]

22. instead of fracking we should be catching that Methane boiling out of the thawed permafrost

but nooo, Corps wanted to have no regulations and squeeze gas out of nasty/toxic oily shale and ruin the porus nature of our deeper land.

[Cassiopeia]

23. Not only did the current admin and Hillary allow it

They actively promoted for those companies around the globe.

[Sunlei]

25. fracking industry was 'set-up' to go well before the Obama Admin. We're lucky our President believed

in climate change and after a time understood the damages from fracking.

[Sunlei]

18. and yes, Obama computerized-Upgraded- many of our government records 'finally'. Makes it much easie

Much easier to 'flag' fraud and waste, track exports and actual Global use.

I also love that Obama got our DOI off their old paper map system and computerized maps are here to stay.

[OxQQme]

11. what happens to those thousands of people

who's lives have depended on 'the coal economy'?

or the millions who live on the teat of the MIC when it's budget gets cut?

the big oil everyday workers?

adapt or die?

i am a 75 yr old avowed Berniac and resonate to his descriptions of the problems that need fixing.

but what happens to those who become displaced?

[pampango]

13. In Sweden (Bernie's Scandinavia) unemployment benefits are far more generous and

last much, much longer. Retraining and education are free. If relocating is necessary, the government pays for that too.

For those who can't or won't retrain and/or relocate, I don't know the answer. Maybe we should consider paying them not to mine coal like we pay farmers not to grow certain crops.

[Sunlei]

15. They have to adapt to 'change' like those who made 'a living' off buffalo hides, tongues and bones

[Adrahil]

19. I wish we'd quit using it where I live.

I kind of want an electric car. but where I live, most electricity is still produced by coal, so an electric car is actually less green than a low-emission car or hybrid.

[Hortensis]

24. Very satisfying, Pampango.

"There is no such thing as clean coal."

Poor Appalachia. Those horrible mine jobs were among the best paid, such as they were. Last year's budget included funds to help in the transition, as did the year before's.

The plan, called POWER Plus and is part of the President’s proposed Fiscal Year 2016 Budget, provides more than $55 million in funding for job training, job creation, economic diversification, and other economic efforts in communities that have experienced layoffs due to the declining coal industry. According to the White House, that funding is “unprecedented” and will go toward improving the economic security of coal miners and their families, who have “helped keep the lights on in this nation for generations.”

But 90% is the individual, of course, plus a lack of tethering responsibilities. I remember when logging jobs left the northwest for the south. A friend of a friend was a county social worker who was very frustrated because some ex-loggers preferred welfare where they'd always lived to retraining for new jobs that required them to adopt new self identities and perhaps move away. In addition, some were semiliterate at best (use it or lose it), severely limiting their opportunities.