(ex-) Working-class Rust Belt could put trump in White house

[ellenrr]

--- and if they do, they'll wake up the next day and be like 'oh my god, what did I do?
Can we have another election?'

They make a "protest vote" against government, and against the conditions of their lives, which is true they are getting the shaft--

but people gotta realize a vote is forever, an election is forever.

(until the next one, if we survive that long.)

article:
"Uprising in the Rust Belt
They used to be Democrats. Now they really could hand Donald Trump the White House."


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/coal-country-democrats-donald-trump-2016-213988#ixzz4CmkXiMW2

[safeinOhio]

1. No they won't

so stop saying that.

[Human101948]

3. Putting your fingers in your ears and singing la-la-la isn't a very good plan...

Polls are showing the presidential race too damn close.

Rocky stretch hurts Trump in poll, but race with Clinton still close
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rocky-stretch-hurts-trump-in-poll-but-race-with-clinton-still-close-2016-06-26

[spinbaby]

19. I think it's very possible

Here in rural western Pennsylvania, support for Trump is strong. What I hear a lot is, "Yeah, he's an idiot, but I'm voting for him because the establishment hates him and I want to stick it to the establishment." Actually, what I hear is a lot ruder than that, but that's the gist of it.

[safeinOhio]

21. I hear that too

but mostly from people that have never voted or ever will. I'm keeping the faith, but as a member of the local party, I plan on working for her and will send some $ to her to help.

[Chasstev365]

2. The scary part is that if Trump

we're not a gaffe machine, who offends immigrants and women on a regular basis, he could be crafting a BS Populist message that would resonated and could be leading.

His big mouth just might save us, but don't count of the stupidity of people.

[ellenrr]

11. Molly Ivins famously said "don't underestimate the stupidity of the american people", but

I used to view these people as stupid and contemptible.
Now I more pity them.

(which doesn't mean I don't fear what they could do).

They never had a chance. They were probably brought up by folk who think like they do, so they thot that way.
They were probably never challenged to think any differently.
They hung out with folk who think like them.

what chance did they have?

they drew the wrong conclusion- that trump is going to help them out of their economic woes--
that immigrants are responsible for their troubles--
they react based on emotion, not rationality...

but their situation in fact is dire.

[demosincebirth]

30. Reagan, the destroyer of the middle class!

[Starry Messenger]

5. I read that and it finally went on to admit that

several of those voters had voted GOP for several other cycles already.

But in the details, the threads of this argument begin to fray. For one thing, many voters who switched to the GOP in Pennsylvania this spring were Democrats in name only, having long voted Republican in presidential elections. Neither Polacek, Frear, or Joey Del could remember voting for a Democrat for president in any recent election. When they switched parties, the electoral outcome didn’t exactly change.

While I think it is a good article, and deals with an important topic, it overstated the threat of some great shift. Joe Hardhat moved right a long time ago.

[Brickbat]

6. ^^ This is the key point right here.

[Cosmocat]

15. PA has a MASSIVE registered D v R edge, like a million votes or so

and at the state level has been a slightly to left break even state.

Gone POTUS to D for a couple decades, but always a D/R pair of senators.

The swing this spring was truly mostly just Ds who vote R going that way officially for Trump.

That said, you never know.

[JustAnotherGen]

18. +1

The devil is in the details.

[Starry Messenger]

20. Isn't that the truth!

[Adrahil]

8. White working-class....

Let's be clear. We're talking about white working-class people. Not POC. Personally, I do not think it will happen. However, Trump is just enacting an expanded version of the Southern Strategy. Trump is seeking to leverage economic anxiety by plumbing the always-ready well of racial hatred. IMO, most of these folks will see through Trump's bullshit encrusted argument. The man makes his crap overseas for slave wages whenever he possibly can. He has no credibility on the issue, and people are beginning to see it.

[riversedge]

9. Hillary and her supporters in these areas have lots of work to do.

[underpants]

10. 270 to win - if Trump wins OH PA &MI He would still have to win FLA

[dembotoz]

23. i do not see hrc winning wisconsin

from what i heard today its considered a toss up

and the forces of the dark lord are quite strong here

[underpants]

24. No local knowledge myself

It could be a toss up but remember we are a nation of followers. If it's clear she's going to win a lot of people will jump on the bandwagon.

[pampango]

12. If Trump can make the election about "Are you happy?" He wins. If it is a choice between who will

make your life better, Hillary wins.

The Brexit vote proves that nationalism, nostalgia and xenophobia are powerful concepts that can win out over what will realistically make your live better.

[ellenrr]

13. there is a line in a Marilyn French novel to the effect of

"americans are the only people who vote against their interests"

of course it is not true just for americans.

she was referring in the '50's to people in the american 'heartland' who were poor and under-served, and voted republican every time.

it comes back to education and people not being able to think critically and only react to emotion.
trump knows that, and he gives them what they want, as demogogues always do.

[Gabi Hayes]

16. leading indicator: 'who do you hate the most?'. aggregate polls are pretty closely

following the unfavorable ratings of both candidates, with Hillary 'besting'
Doncon by 5-6 points.

that's been pretty much the trend for quite awhile

[underpants]

25. I agree somewhat. Hillary needs to push a positive message too

Obama's numbers are through the roof considering the operation against him. She should highlight him and ask if you want to go back to 2008/W&Co.

[bemildred]

14. Four months and both conventions to go yet. nt

[Cosmocat]

17. Brexit isn't a bad thing for our election

The stupid is lost, no appealing to reason or rational discussion there.

There are however those people who sit between that and the people who see this clear as day, and the fallout from Brexit can help them to take this shit more seriously, get out to vote and vote for competence.

Ds should go a step further than just showing yet another clueless moment of self agrandization on the jackass' part, and put Brexit around Trump's neck.

There are consequences to elections, and when we indulge conservatism at its more extreme, THESE are the consequences.

[blue neen]

22. Self-delete.

[Squinch]

26. Uhhhh.....no.

[Lance Bass esquire]

27. When rust belters realize Reagan shipped there jobs

Off shore thru deregulation 30 years ago and they are not coming back they can start to move fwd in life thru other means.

I grew up back there. .it's over..dead ..gone ..kaput..finushed..DOA..it's never coming back.

Kind of pisses me off as well that these same folks are the Walmart nation.

Keppra slitting your throats with cheap importated knives and cry me a river.

JMHO

[MFM008]

28. The only rust belt state

He has any hope for is PA. Then he could lose Arizona. I still expect an electoral landslide against the rumpster fire.

[doc03]

29. I would bet he carries Ohio n/t