Of all Western nations, only Israel has a fertility rate above replacement level

[uawchild]

I just had another stray thought and was wondering if ANY Western developed nations had a fertility rate above the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. I was thinking "I bet not".

So I checked and discovered only Israel did.

That's right, even in the Nordic countries with their more generous social safety net, no Western country has a sustainable birthrate.

Why is this true for so many countries?

I think Israel is the lone exception for several reasons, it might be a continued collective response to the Holocaust and a desire to keep their heritage alive, it might be due to the large Orthodox community that encourages large families, it might be that Israel offers more support to families than any other Western nation.

It seems, that with a few notable exceptions like Israel, the only countries that DO have a fertility rate above replacement level don't give full equal rights to women.

Just some stray thoughts.

Comments welcome of course, but please read what I actually wrote and don't post that I want to oppress women.
Joking. I hope. lol

[ZombieHorde]

1. Isn't Israel in Asia?

Isn't Asia the East?

[uawchild]

3. "Western nations" is a cultural/political designation, not a geographic one.

As commonly used. Sorry for the confusion.

"Western Nations" usually designates most of Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, Israel, and New Zealand.

[ZombieHorde]

5. Ah. There's so much shit I don't know. nt

[uponit7771]

2. Looking at what's happening in Tokyo Israels economy may be more setup for having the "fun" in ...

... producing kids and affordability in raising them.

Kids are expensive in the western nations, 800 a month for 2 kids in day care where I live for both of us to work.

In Tokyo young people have stopped having sex altogether - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex ... cause its expensive to think of the whole process of having a family and kids to go along with it.

Another overtly expensive city is San Fran relative to the amount of young people there - http://www.sfgate.com/health/article/California-birthrate-drops-to-record-low-4055094.php

Who has time to date if people are always grinding throughout the day etc...

My shade tree analysis

[JI7]

8. how about birth control ?

[uponit7771]

9. Israelis believe in BC too, just when the economy is over bearing all the "fun" goes away ...

... no romance without finance.

folk tired, gotta sleep...

In Tokyo its no fun because they've lost hope... the birth rate isn't low because of use of BC

[JI7]

11. I'm asking why don't they use birth control in Tokyo if the issue is kids are expensive ?

[Warren DeMontague]

4. Buried in there, though, is good news. Namely, that if people have the tools to run their own lives

and make their own decisions, things like "the population problem" tend to manage themselves on their own.

What is crucial is people being able to control their own bodies, and not have their decisions controlled by self-appointed "authorities", either governmental or religious.

[Statistical]

6. Because they don't have to.

It really is that simple. High birth rates exist in undeveloped nations due to a lack of social safety net (your kids and their future income = how you don't starve in the street when you are old).

It takes a generation or two to kick in but once people have access to birth control, education, and social safety net they no longer need to have kids and the birthrate falls. Immigration can take care of the rest and nice thing about immigration is you can control the flow to target essentially any population replacement rate you want from aggressive growth to essentially break even.

The same trend is occurring in the developed world it is just slower. The Middle East is roughly where the US was at end of WWII.



Immigration is cheaper than the alternative which is to provide significant incentives to drive up the natural birthrate. The big question is what happens once the entire world has reached this point. That is probably a century away but that will it be quite the societal disruptor.

[uawchild]

7. "Immigration is cheaper than the alternative..."

"It takes a generation or two to kick in but once people have access to birth control, education, and social safety net they no longer need to have kids and the birthrate falls. Immigration can take care of the rest and nice thing about immigration is you can control the flow to target essentially any population replacement rate you want from aggressive growth to essentially break even.

Immigration is cheaper than the alternative which is to provide significant incentives to drive up the natural birthrate."

What a very thought provoking point. Thank you for making it.

People actually made the argument that in Germany Merkel's immigration policy was actually driven by demographic needs, the need for a larger labor force. Seems she may have been taking the cheaper way out there too.

[uponit7771]

10. interesting perspective but I thought one of the points of the OP was Israel has a good safety net

[Statistical]

13. Well there will be exceptions to the rule.

Israel strongly encourages higher birthrate. Remember they are a Jewish nation surrounded by potential enemies. The idea of simply using immigration to maintain a positive population replacement rate is not socially desirable so they promote growth from within.

[marybourg]

15. Israel heavily promotes

immigration of Jews from the U.S and other western nations. Israel has also accepted Jews from non-western nations like Ethiopia. That is the whole purpose of Israel-to gather in the Jews of the world. Of course, not all Jews want to be gathered in.

Israel is definitely a western nation.

[AgingAmerican]

12. I don't consider Israel to be a 'Western nation'

Just as apartheid South Africa wasn't.

[sylvanus]

14. Well said, Agreed, admittedly not a democratic nation, apartide failure, Theocracy.