I know it's early, but this election will be decided in three states

[louis c]

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

If Hillary carries Florida, she can still win without Penn. and Ohio.

If Hillary carries Florida and Penn., I can't see a pathway to a Trump victory.

If Hillary can carry all three, it will be a landslide.

Trump needs to carry all three to have a plausible path to victory.

I see these three states as the key to the election.

[spinbaby]

1. I find that rather discouraging, actually

Because in my rural corner of Pennsylvania, Trump support is high.

[yeoman6987]

3. Were they supportive of Romney?

If yes then no worries.

[spinbaby]

19. Not that I remember

But there was huge support for Palin. I live in the Alabama part of PA.

[OneGrassRoot]

20. Must be SW...

I'm from SW PA, and I also have family in Alabama, and the description of "the Alabama part of PA" fits the SW part of the state, outside of Pittsburgh.

[book_worm]

4. The Democrats get their victory margins out of Philadelphia area and Pittsburgh

If your rural part of PA is traditionally GOP supporting then it doesn't go against the grain.

[athena]

18. When I canvassed for Obama in Pennsylvania four years ago,

I was told that the trick to winning Pennsylvania is getting out the vote. Pennsylvanians are either Democrats or Republicans, and it's impossible to change their minds; they will vote how they've always voted. But we can make sure that those who support the Democratic Party will come out and actually vote on election day. So I wouldn't worry too much about the Trump signs you might see around you. In fact, you might want to volunteer to do some GOTV yourself, since the campaign knows exactly which doors need to be knocked on. Trust me, they won't have you waste your time with Trump supporters.

[yeoman6987]

2. Trump will not win Pennsylvania

Even bush lost and ridge was governor and was running around the state trying to get bush to get the state. It failed. There is not that kind of support and the state is even more diverse.

[book_worm]

5. Yes, PA is always a pipe dream for the GOP & the media horse race.

[kimbutgar]

6. Did you see the full frontal Samatha Bee show?

She interviewed people in Pennsylvania and they were all for Cheeto. Only 1 lady was for Hillary.

Scared the crap out of me the lame reasons they support him.

[Cosmocat]

28. She was riding the turnpike

southern part of the state, hitting areas that tend to be like that.

As others have noted, presidential elections normally get huge turnouts from Philly and Pittsburgh.

You can't rule anything out, but http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html.

[tech3149]

9. Your corner of Pa may be a bit different than mine

I grew up here in this once strong union section of Sw PA. I moved back in 2002 and was dumbfounded by the rightward swing from what I grew up with.
During the early primary season I saw one T-rump and one Bernie sign. By the time of the Republican convention T-rump signs had sprouted like mushrooms after a summer rain. Even saw a few Johnson signs. Not once have I seen a Clinton sign.
Conversations with aquaintences or people on the street indicate that their thinking has been constrained and manipulated by mass media.
I'd put money on PA being a heavy lift for Clinton. Nate Silver might be some statistical genius but I think you have to get down to the factors that drive the statistics.
Clinton has had decades of derision by mass media and T-rump hass gotten a free tons of air time. I'd call Clintons chances at less than 50%, especially after choosing Kaine.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Personal anecdotes aren't dispositive of anything more than what is said in the anecdote.

I'm not doubting you. I am certain there are parts of PA (or any state, for that matter) where Clinton will lose to tRump. But those places are isolated and anomalous. I'll go with sound scientific polling for clues right now.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. The vote from Philadelphia swings the entire state

and has done so in Presidential elections since 1988. We're talking 1.5 million people in one county (with about 600,000 registered voters).

There are more registered Democrats in PA than Republicans and Philly helps to supply the 300,000 - 400,000 vote margin of Democratic victory, assuming the turnout is there. The eastern part of the state far outnumbers the population of the west. That was also part of the reason why Wolf got in - in an "off year" election - breaking the half-century long 2-term precedent for PA governors after Corbett lost.

Here in Philly, co-workers and family see Trump as so loonie and dystopian that they know the stakes are high in this election and the danger if he is elected. Roll Obama in here for a rally and that will seal the the deal.

[Nictuku]

16. Primary votes (Republican vs Democratic)

This gives some hope in Pennsylvania (more democratic voters than republican voters):

1,573,338 votes, 99% reporting (9,123 of 9,168 precincts) (Total Republican Votes)
1,652,947 votes, 99% reporting (9,123 of 9,168 precincts) (Total Democratic Votes)

I think a lot will depend on how Bernie voters will vote in the GE. (719,955 Pennsylvania voters voted for Sanders)

If I were to base my vote on how Hillary Supporters here on DU treated Bernie Supporters... well, I'll have to leave that to one's imagination.

Fortunately, I don't let the MSM (or for that matter, message board) shenanigans effect my ability to ferret out truth from fiction. The propaganda is so thick these days, everything you hear presented to you should be carefully vetted.

I have never supported the proposition of 'My Candidate can do no wrong'. I don't think that has ever been true of any candidate. How can we expect to make our democratic republic stronger if we do not identify and deal with its problems?

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Voter registration stats (as of April 2016)

<....>

Democratic 4,062,187
Republican 3,126,166
Other Parties 1,085,350
All Parties (TOTAL) 8,273,703

http://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/Documents/2016%20Election%20VR%20Stats.pdf (PDF)

936,000 difference between Democrats and Republicans. I think the majority of Bernie supporters will vote straight D. Those who disagree will probably change party to I (or some variation) and may still vote Ds but not at the top of the ticket. There were a lot of media reports about "165k voters switching parties", so the issue might be how many were protest switches (by either party).

[JI7]

21. Clinton won pennsylvania in the pRimary

[Freddie]

26. By a big margin

Same in 2008. She has personal ties here as her father was from the Scranton area.
Starting to see some bumper stickers here (Philly burbs). Just ordered mine.

[Freddie]

7. PA is Philly and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between

Truer words were never spoken.
The folks in the cities will NOT vote for Trump and there's more of them than the Alabama part. Plus the suburbs that were once solidly R have turned blue lately as these folks tend to be socially liberal. And the smaller cities (Allentown, Reading, Lancaster) have big Latino communities.
Not worried about PA, we got this.

[Brother Buzz]

8. Burning bridges and all that....

If Trump's feud with John Kasich continues, winning Ohio would be a hard slog.

And from what I saw yesterday, it appears Tim Kaine will single-handedly deliver Florida.

[RAFisher]

11. I agree. Good news is that New Mexico, Colorado and now Virginia look very likely Democratic

Pennsylvania looks very important. First start with all 2012 Obama states. Clinton could lose Florida and Ohio. She could also lose Iowa and Nevada. That puts her at 273. That is close but still a win. In that scenario, losing New Hampshire (not likely) would tie the election sending it to Congress.

If Trump wins all three, Clinton is going to need all 2012 Obama states plus 6 EV from a red state. North Carolina? Arizona? Could even be Utah?

[edhopper]

12. Hence the Philly convention

and picking Kaine (cause VA cancels a Trump win in one of those.)

I agree Trump must win all three and I don't see that happening.

[roamer65]

13. Some of the Rocky Mountain states are going to be tossups.

Last poll I saw on Utah it was nearly a dead heat between Cheeto, HRC and Gary Johnson. If Johnson is in the debates and does well, election night could be a long one.

[librechik]

15. FL and OH elections are governed by GOP "machines--"

for decades. And have held demonstrably crooked Presidential elections several times.

Pennsylvania recently switched to Democrat Governor Wolf, and a (D)Latino Secretary of State ( the official over elections in PA.) Maybe we have a chance for an honest election there(ignoring the fact that hackers could spoil everything SOOOOOooo easily in too many states)

The vote in OH and FL must be very very close for a believable election theft. But they will certainly try to steal it, as they have since 2000. With great success, BTW. And if they get the results "certified" by some lackey or even the SCOTUS, then there is no effective redress.

[Auggie]

22. It's scary as hell to realize Trump might have that much support

[Rosco T.]

23. No, Trump is counting on three other states to win.....

Despair...

Fear....

Deception....

[Rustyeye77]

24. I agree

Trump can kiss Fla goodbye.

Ohio close.

Penn is leaning HRC.

[writes3000]

25. Fact - even if Hillary lost those three states, she can still win.

She would need to win MI, WI, CO, VA and one other small state like NH or NV.

That's why VA is a big deal. Makes things much tougher for the opposition.

[louis c]

27. I know that, but it will be difficult

so, if Hillary can win Florida, or lose Florida and win Ohio and Penn., Trump can't win.