Here's How NASA Thinks Society Will Collapse

[LWolf]

Too much inequality and too few natural resources could leave the West vulnerable to a Roman Empire-style fall.

Few think Western civilization is on the brink of collapse — but it's also doubtful the Romans and Mesopotamians saw their own demise coming either.

If we're to avoid their fate, we'll need policies to reduce economic inequality and preserve natural resources, according to a NASA-funded study that looked at the collapses of previous societies.

"Two important features seem to appear across societies that have collapsed," reads the study. "The stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity and the economic stratification of society into Elites and Masses."

So how do we save ourselves? "Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at the maximum carrying capacity, if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed equitably," reads the report.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/03/heres-how-nasa-thinks-society-will-collapse/441375/

Few, but I've been one of them. Perhaps because I see through a different lens. Perhaps because, in my youth, this poem struck me as also seeing through a different lens, and I paid attention.

Shine, Perishing Republic
by Robinson Jeffers

While this America settles in the mould of its vulgarity, heavily thickening
to empire
And protest, only a bubble in the molten mass, pops and sighs out, and the
mass hardens,
I sadly smiling remember that the flower fades to make fruit, the fruit rots
to make earth.
Out of the mother; and through the spring exultances, ripeness and decadence;
and home to the mother.
You making haste haste on decay: not blameworthy; life is good, be it stubbornly
long or suddenly
A mortal splendor: meteors are not needed less than mountains:
shine, perishing republic.
But for my children, I would have them keep their distance from the thickening
center; corruption
Never has been compulsory, when the cities lie at the monster's feet there
are left the mountains.
And boys, be in nothing so moderate as in love of man, a clever servant,
insufferable master.
There is the trap that catches noblest spirits, that caught – they say –
God, when he walked on earth.

http://www.antiwar.com/orig/jeffers1.html

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Not NASA

This report was widely promulgated as being an official NASA report years ago. Turned out not to be true.

[hughee99]

4. This sort of study wouldn't seem to fall within NASA's domain.

Unless there's another "NASA" that stands for something else.

[orpupilofnature57]

5. Makes perfect sense, before the Internet who'd question it ? WMD's were real once .

[LWolf]

8. You're right.

I went looking, and found this:

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/march/nasa-statement-on-sustainability-study/#.V83mzigrKUk

The following is a statement from NASA regarding erroneous media reports crediting the agency with an academic paper on population and societal impacts.

"A soon-to-be published research paper 'Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies' by University of Maryland researchers Safa Motesharrei and Eugenia Kalnay, and University of Minnesota’s Jorge Rivas was not solicited, directed or reviewed by NASA. It is an independent study by the university researchers utilizing research tools developed for a separate NASA activity.

"As is the case with all independent research, the views and conclusions in the paper are those of the authors alone. NASA does not endorse the paper or its conclusions."

Thank you for clarifying this. It is still a study:

http://jayhanson.us/_Biology/OvershootCollapse.pdf

Part of the summary:

In sum, the results of our experiments, discussed in Section 6, indicate that either one of the two features apparent in historical societal collapses – over-exploitation of natural resources and strong economic stratification – can independently result in a complete collapse. Given economic stratification, collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of economic stratification, collapse
can still occur if depletion per capita is too high. However, collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion.

[Oneironaut]

10. The Internet has a citation problem.

I've seen so many things "written by X government agency / scientist / public figure" only to find that the source was someone's blog. The Internet is rife with liars and bullshit.

I'm not attacking the OP - I'm attacking the Internet and world's obsession with first dishonestly attributing pieces to authority figures, and B - everyone accepting those articles at face value. I've done it many times myself and am making a conscious effort not to do it.

The biggest tell here is that NASA wouldn't write something like this.

[LWolf]

11. Yes.

"using tools developed by a separate NASA activity" is not the same thing as a study conducted by NASA at all. I can see, though, with the speed that people write and post things on the internet, that someone would pick that up.

Kind of like playing telephone instead of checking sources. And, of course, I'm guilty as well, because I didn't check it until someone pointed the problem out.

[matt819]

2. Six words

Fresh water.

Population growth.

Climate change.

[orpupilofnature57]

3. I found an unopened issue of Forum on the side of the road in 1979, and it attributed the

downfall of all civilizations to the lack of symmetry or the synthesis of harmony .The cause was the over emphasis on Military dominance , look what it did to Rome, Intellectual dominance leaving ancient Africa open to enslavement because of no military force to defend, All civilizations have failed because of a lack of Checks & Balances .

[roamer65]

6. One word.

Overpopulation.

[LWolf]

9. A critical word. nt

[FLPanhandle]

12. +1000

Unpopular topic here though.

[lpbk2713]

7. Divisiveness will be a key factor.

Everyone thinks they have the right ideas and no one wants to work things out together.

[Arazi]

13. Really don't need a study. Just common sense

[LWolf]

14. Do you see a lot of common sense

on display throughout the world?

When that common sense confronts the power of capitalism, it suddenly becomes "extreme."

[Arazi]

15. Agreed 100%