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Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:06 PM

538?

Hillary's numbers are getting lower even with today's positive Florida poll and NBC national poll.

21 replies, 1496 views

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Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply 538? (Original post)
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 OP
George the Retiree Sep 2016 #1
Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #2
MFM008 Sep 2016 #3
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #4
Hamlette Sep 2016 #21
LakeArenal Sep 2016 #5
vadermike Sep 2016 #6
LiberalLoner Sep 2016 #7
sharp_stick Sep 2016 #11
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #8
vadermike Sep 2016 #9
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #10
Oneironaut Sep 2016 #12
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #14
Oneironaut Sep 2016 #16
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #18
Oneironaut Sep 2016 #20
davidn3600 Sep 2016 #13
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #15
davidn3600 Sep 2016 #17
Proud liberal 80 Sep 2016 #19

Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:08 PM

1. None of us will live to be that age

 

Sorry.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:09 PM

2. Rasmussen put out a narrative changer for NV

Doesn't matter. Upshot, Predictwise moving back up.

Nate's model is too sensitive to crap, but he'll never admit it. It will wash out tomorrow after Monmouth releases more of its polls.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:25 PM

3. I'm beginning to think Silver

Will go the way of the dinosaur.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:27 PM

4. Even with the Monmouth poll

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Reply #4)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:30 PM

21. but by a smaller margin than yesterday

It's lighter red than before. I'm waiting for it to turn back blue.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:28 PM

5. Even Punxsutawney Phil gets it wrong sometimes

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 04:29 PM

6. Why has

It gone down so much Upshot same wang and even Dkos is higher !!!

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:06 PM

7. I'm glad I'm not the only one noticing - 538 has it basically 50/50 now - WTF?

What is going on? I keep hearing about positive polls here on DU and 538 keeps lowering Clinton's chances every five minutes. Any explanation that makes any sense?

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Response to LiberalLoner (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:52 PM

11. Sure

stop paying attention to just the polls you like and dig into the numbers to see what's happening.

Poll aggregate groups and the 538 stat engine takes time to change.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:32 PM

8. I just read his twitter

And he is basically saying that a Maine poll (by a C rated pollster) that showed a tie, a Nevada Rasmussen poll that shows Trump up by 3, and a NC poll that shows Trump up 1 is the reason why her numbers dropped.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:37 PM

9. Monmouth

Has more positive HRC state polling coming Hopefully will help Charlie cook says HRC still will win by smaller margin Upshot and wang increases .. IPsos poll shows trump ahead I guess we will find out soon the iPsos poll showed movement towards trump last few days I hope it's not time to panic yet as Nate says He did say if trump was still up today to panic but other polling shows her ahead This is a nutty election we should win this

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Response to vadermike (Reply #9)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:48 PM

10. What Ipsos poll?

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:53 PM

12. This is Hillary's race to lose. She's blowing it.

This is the sort of thing where Trump would get destroyed by almost any other candidate. The Democratic Party instead opted to choose the worst candidate in the bunch. Literally almost anyone else would be winning in a landslide.

I'm voting for Clinton. I wish I could vote for her 100x to stop the alternative. However, the Democrats are making awful decisions that I'll never understand.

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Response to Oneironaut (Reply #12)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:00 PM

14. Disagree

Whoever was the Dem candidate would have been demonized by the Republicans and MSM. Bernie would have been labeled a socialist, Biden would have been tied to Obama, etc...

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Reply #14)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:08 PM

16. That's a false dilemma, in my mind.

Every one of those people is stale or unelectable. The Democrats desperately needed someone new to shake things up. Obama did just that.

A Clinton should never run for anything again, in my opinion. We need new ideas, or at least need to look like we're trying.

Clinton is the very reason Trump got nominated, imo. Of all people, the Democratic Party opted for the poster child of career politicians in the publics' minds.

It's too late now. I'm behind Clinton 100% and will cast my vote for her. On the other hand, the election shouldn't be anywhere near this close. How did a knuckle-dragging, orange-haired sideshow clown get to be the nominee, or dare I say it, possibly President?

As he rose in the ranks, we pointed and laughed. Nobody took him seriously. They still don't. The concept of a Trump /Pence White House is too terrifying to imagine.

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Response to Oneironaut (Reply #16)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:17 PM

18. Because it's the year 2000 all over again

Dems, moderates, and independents are more comfortable than they were 8 years ago and believe that they can

a. Vote third party because both of the candidates are "equally" bad
b. take a chance on the idiot instead of going with the uptight adult who is ready for the presidency
c. Not vote at all

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Reply #18)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:22 PM

20. That I can agree with.

A - Anyone who plans to "protest vote/ not vote" might as well put a Trump sign in front of their house and vote for him. Also, anyone who says the candidates are "equally bad" is either out of their mind or not paying attention. Trump literally asked if we could use nukes. People are afraid of sporadic ISIS attacks, but not of a sociopathic narcissist who would kill everyone down to the last person to prove himself the winner.

B - Equally stupid. I'll never get it. It's like saying, "that bread looks stale, but I might starve. I'll drink bleach instead!"

C - As said in A, madness...

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 05:55 PM

13. Monmouth poll is an outlier right now...

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

That poll also shows her numbers down. It had her winning Florida by 9 points a month ago.

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Response to davidn3600 (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:01 PM

15. It should be compared to recent Fla polls

Not one from a month ago even if it was the same pollster

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:12 PM

17. And the other polls show it tied in Florida or Trump with a slight lead

 

A CNN poll taken last week had Trump up by 4. Are you suggesting there was a 9 point swing in 1 week?

Then you got a New York Times poll showing the race tied, and a CBS poll showing Clinton with a 2 point lead.

So what you have here are polls with some disagreement. But taking it all in together it appears Florida looks like a dead heat. It's a toss up. Which is not unusual for this state. It's purple. It's a battleground.

The Monmouth poll has always been an outlier in Florida compared to the other polls. Now if another Florida poll comes out tomorrow showing Hillary with that solid 5 point lead, then it starts to give it validity. But right now, Monmouth is an outlier.

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Response to davidn3600 (Reply #17)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:18 PM

19. And I agree with that assessment

Just not the one about last months poll

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